09-27-2013 07:08 AM - edited 09-27-2013 02:20 PM
At the close:
The Dec. corn futures contract settled 2 3/4cents lower at $4.54. The Nov. soybean futures contract finished 3 cents higher at $13.19. Dec. wheat futures ended 5 cents higher at $6.83 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures closed $3.40 per short ton higher at $418.30. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.24 lower at $41.81.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.20 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 92 points lower.
The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $4.54. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 4 3/4 cents higher at $13.21. Dec. wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $6.82 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $2.30 per short ton higher at $417.20. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.06 higher at $42.11.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 81 points lower.
Taiwan buyer picks up 50,000 tons of Brazilian soybeans Friday.
Corn has turned lower, again. But, it's meandoring. One analyst says Monday's Report is not being heavily eyed.
"Marketwise we are not going into Monday's report with any big convictions. We are fundamentally bearish corn since yield reports have been flowing in larger than expected. Soybean data is still not widespread enough for us to confidently estimate final soybean production but early bean yields have been decent so far. I think the weak US Dollar Index is part of the reason corn hasn't broke the lows yet. Also the liquidation of the wheat shorts going into the end of the quarter is also helping to support corn," he says.
Corn and wheat have turned slightly higher, soybeans are trading 7 cents higher.
At the open:
The Dec. corn futures contract opened 1 cent lower at $4.56. The Nov. soybean futures contract opened 3 cents higher at $13.19. Dec. wheat futures started 1 cent lower at $6.76 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $1.30 per short ton higher at $416.20. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.17 higher at $42.23.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points lower.
--USDA announces Friday that an 'unknown' purchased 121,600 mt of U.S. wheat for 2013-14 delivery.
Wheat is capturing quite the demand this week. It has lead the grain markets all week.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 4-5 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.44 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower, even though Nike beat earnings expections.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks lower.
More in a minute,
09-27-2013 11:09 AM
Pre-USDA Report Talk:
One analyst says, "Marketwise we are not going into Monday's report with any big convictions. We are fundamentally bearish corn since yield reports have been flowing in larger than expected. Soybean data is still not widespread enough for us to confidently estimate final soybean production but early bean yields have been decent so far. I think the weak US Dollar Index is part of the reason corn hasn't broke the lows yet. Also the liquidation of the wheat shorts going into the end of the quarter is also helping to support corn."
--Another analyst says, "For wheat, you're seeing some concerns of the frost in Argentina and the unwinding of short positions of wheat contracts, ahead of the Quarterly Stocks Report Monday.
Brazil is bidding for U.S. wheat, after the Argentina frost became inevitable. That starts to stir the pot, as to what our exports are now. Given the amount of wheat for feed-usage in the western Corn Belt and Southwest through the summer, wheat just got a bid. We watched the charts show Dec. wheat at $6.40 firm up for a number of weeks. We just found a technical bid with other events out there.
BUT, keep in mind, we are looking at a record Ukrainian crop, good yields in other European areas. Plus, we have plenty of world wheat supplies. So, the rally you are seeing isn't likely one that will be long-lived, especially since we are awaiting the corn yield reports.
Wheat is the biggest marketmover right now because nobody wants to make big moves in corn and soybeans.
Monday's Report means little to corn and soybeans because we are headed into harvest. And the end-users know, as well as the market, that a new crop is coming. So, this report's carryout number on old-crop doesn't carry a lot of weight.
Yes, we are trying to balance the wheat stocks picture. but, the report is mainly about old-crop and what we did to end the marketing year.
Immediately after the numbers are released, your market bias will go right to what you think the corn and soybean yields will mean to prices.
IF the wheat usage number is larger than expected and harvest becomes one with lower yields than thought, folks will get excited.
But, right now, yields are coming in at decent levels. The uncertainties remain with protein levels and test weight.
IU don't this report is a big deal. But, we are in this timeframe when there is no new news. So, this report is being made into a big deal.
Everyone is talking about the USDA's soybean export estimate is too small and the fact that they reduced it in their last report was out of place. But, we do a lot of selling at this time of the year. We sell a lot in this first quarter, for delivery at later dates. Buyers know this is seasonally, a time for low soybean prices. So, they have their year maps out and are trying to secure supply.
We will be watching to see what happens with the crush numbers. Why? Because, in recent years we have been very active in exporting meal. So, this will be a watchpoint.
On that ending stocks number that hasn't been changed for two or three reports, I don't think USDA does anything there. We are expecting a large South American bean crop this year. We don't know our soybean yields yet. So, if we start talking about too tight of stocks too early, prices go up and we instantly price ourselves out of the export game."
09-27-2013 11:51 AM
Does anyone else see this statement from the analyst quoted above a little silly??
"......We are expecting a large South American bean crop this year. We don't know our soybean yields yet...."
09-27-2013 05:36 PM
If we "price ourselves out of the export game" that means that we need the beans here in the U.S. We really need to supply our own endusers first.
09-28-2013 11:39 AM
It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense, to run our country out of beans shipping them to China, only to have to have shiploads brought back in from SA next year. Unless, of course, this is the game being played on the American Farmer to get them to sell out our crop cheap, and force our internal buyers to pay a premium for shipping it back up the Mississippi next year. Taht way, we can cancel some of those loads to China at on oppertune time - drop the market, and then say how many loads of cheap beans are coming from SA, and drop the market. It's really dumb - but I'm sure someone has figured out a way to make money doing this. At what cost? To our producers AND end users. It's such a shell game, that no one reallys knows - except those that are moving the shells.
09-28-2013 11:58 AM
There is no large scale plan, controlling price to farmers. The decision by endusers not to buy until price is lower, controls the overall price pay to growers. Many endusers have the belief that lower prices are coming. Causing the harvest prices to bottom, regardless of the supply. When supply is known, endusers will come to the market.