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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,133
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk September 3

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 11 3/4 cents lower at $3.52

 

Nov. soybean futures finished 12 cents lower at $10.20.

 

Dec. wheat futures closed 19 1/4 cents lower at $5.35.

 

Dec. soymeal futures ended $9.60 per short lower at $350.40. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.17 lower at $31.95.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.59 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points higher.

 

Mike

---------

At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 10 cents lower at $3.53.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 17 3/4 cents lower at $10.14.

 

Dec. wheat futures are 17 3/4 cents lower at $5.37.

 

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $11.10 per short lower at $348.90. The Dec. soyoil futures are $0.31 lower at $31.81.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.32 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30 points higher.

 

Susan Mortensen, Advantage Ag, says that the new crop estimates are sitting on this market.

"I think market reaction, today, is definitely due to the big crop estimate from Intl FCStone.  Those were big numbers for every state, not just one or two.  Then the crop conditions come into play, as traders don’t see any reason to make yields smaller.  Although I have not been concerned about frost, some have been--maybe that factor has been reduced.
Many have been commenting that the market may not make a big move until after the October report.  But it is hard to ignore a 4.0 billion bushel bean crop, for example, and so there has been new selling and new lows.
We wonder if there are still old crop corn issues to work through (farmers that have DP corn for example) and logistics issues that are still slowing down the system."
 

 

Mike

-------------

In early trading:

At 9:40am: 

The Dec. corn futures are trading 7 1/2 cents lower at $3.56.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 16 1/2 cents lower at $10.15.

 

Dec. wheat futures are 11 cents lower at $5.44.

 

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $10.00 per short lower at $350.00. The Dec. soyoil futures are $0.07 lower at $32.05.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.24 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points higher.

 

Mike

Allendale Inc. releases results of its farmer yield survey:

 

The Allendale Inc. Nationwide Producer Yield Survey suggests a projected US corn crop of 14.409 billion bushels and a soybean crop of 3.884 billion bushels.

This estimate was based on producer calculated yields in 27 states. It was conducted from

 

August 18-29.

 


Nationwide Yield Data

 

                                  Corn   Soybeans

 

2014 Survey Yield                171.9       46.4

 

2014 Survey Production          14.409      3.884

 


Estimated Frost Free Date

 

North Dakota                     10/06       9/27

 

South Dakota                     10/01      10/03

 

Minnesota                        10/04       9/28

 

Wisconsin                         9/30       9/30

 

Michigan                         10/06       9/28

 


USDA August 12 Harvested Acres  83.839     84.058

 

USDA August 12 Yield             167.4       45.4

 

USDA August 12 Production       14.032      3.816

 

-----------------

Meanwhile, if you missed it Tuesday, INTL FCStone estimated new crop yields:
U.S. corn= at 174.1 bushels per acre, up from 172.4 bpa in August. Corn production up 140 million bushels to 14.595 bln bu.
Soybean=  47.6 bpa vs. 46.0 last month. Output was pegged 4.0 billion bushels, compared to 3.865 bln bu in August.

 

Mike

-------------

At 7:25am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 4-6 cents lower, and wheat 4-6 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Crude Oil = $1.07 per barrel higher.
Dollar = Lower.
Wall Street = Seen higher, on hopes of a cease fire in Ukraine.
World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 4,091
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

You have this report posted early Mike.

 

Had me quessing for a minute, had to check the calendar.

 

Thanks for your posts.

Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,574
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

I guess that I slept through a whole day............It wouldn't be the first time.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,133
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

Canuck_2,

 

It should be up earlier, like the old days (before kids :smileyhappy:

 

I'll try and do better. What do you think of the private yield estimate, this morning?

 

 

Mike

 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,133
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

roarintiger1,

 

It's just that my information is way ahead of the rest. :smileyhappy: Thanks for catching that. I needed to flip my desk calendar.

 

 

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,574
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

Mike, just keep up the good information work. I, and many others appreciate it.    Really, who needs to know what day it is anyways.....:smileywink:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,962
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

--------------------------------------------------------------    

MARKET COMMENTARY September 03, 2014

 

By Tom Manternach

 

Corn closed around 11 cents lower across the board today and beans closed 12 cents lower on the November futures month.  While wheat was over 19 cents lower on the December board today.  Crop condition scores last night were better than expected and helped knock the market lower today.

 

We were able to find new contract lows for December corn today as industry yield guesses have remained higher than the USDA numbers.  We did some damage on the technical side but will likely trade sideways until we get to the crop report next Thursday.  Wheat was mostly a follower today as we saw some of the funds cut and run on their long positions today.  With no frost scare in sight for now it will be hard to see a big rally until the crop report comes out next week. 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 4,091
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

That was what I was talking about.

24 hours early.

 

You had me doing a double take but my computer has the date on the screen all the time.

 

As for those numbers maybe if Jen's weather report is correct the totals harvested will be smaller.

 

Crops look good around here.

Expecting excellent yields BUT harvest will not be early and will not be nice if we get a killing frost before mid October.

Corn is still in milk stage with maybe a little bit of early planted starting to dent in the Chatham - Windsor area.

 

We do have less corn planted and more soys so doing our part to reduce the glut of corn.

Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.