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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,038
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

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At the close:

The Dec. corn futures contract settled 12cents lower at $4.41. The Nov. soybean futures contract finished 37 cents lower at $12.82. Dec. wheat futures ended 4 1/2 cents lower at $6.78 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures closed $12.90 per short ton lower at $405.90. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.71 lower at $41.10


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.20 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 131 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 11am:

 

USDA Says:

 

Corn Stocks:  824 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectations of 680-700 million bushels

 

Soybean Stocks: 141 million bushels vs. the trade's expectations of 127 million bushels.

 

Wheat Stocks:  1.855 billion bushels  vs. the trade's expectations of 1.938 billion bushels.

 

 

What do you think?    The market is watching corn feed usage number and whether the USDA moves the soybean ending stocks number.

 

TRADE REACTION:

--One analyst says, "Corn—This is a bearish number.  To make last year’s supply/demand table balance, the USDA will have to lower feed use.  Therefore, it would seem likely that they will also have to lower feed use for the 2013-14 crop year.  So not only does the crop year start with more supplies, but it is likely there is less demand.  Also, in a quick glance, I noticed that it is the Iowa and Minnesota farmer that held on to more stocks than last year.  I would say a common emotion is frustrated!
 
She goes onto say, "Soybeans—the carryout number was larger than anticipated, but was created simply by raising last year’s crop estimate to 3.034 billion bushels, up 19 million bushels.  For the beans, there should be no change in last year’s demand.  Nevertheless, this is bearish.  The market knows a lot of traders are long beans, plus the chart looks bad and there are at least some reports of better than expected yields."

 

--Mike North, Senior Risk Advisor for First Capital Ag:   "More corn.  More beans.  Less wheat.  That’s the result of the Quarterly Stocks report.  USDA issues an corn ending stocks number of 823 million bu versus the average guess of 681.  Wheat ending stocks came in under the private guess by 58 million bushels.  This will not have the wherewithal to stand up against the larger corn number.  Soybeans also experienced an uptick in ending stocks to 141 million bushels from an average guess of 124 million.  This comes on an increase in the 2012 soybean yield by .2 bpa.  This was certainly unexpected.  Markets are responding accordingly with soybeans down 30, corn down 6 and wheat unchanged.  Harvest pressure will now take over as we close out the quarter and prepare for the coming Oct 11 report."

 

--One analyst says that this report just shows that wheat feed usage replaced corn this past summer.

 

--One analyst says, "Well a few extra bushels of soybeans makes a big difference.  The numbers are reasonable, we know some farmers were holding back, etc.  So 141 is I think believable and is being considered bearish.  Still a tight situation, but a little more space to maneuver going into harvest.  Corn seems to be holding better, I guess the bigger supplies must have been more anticipated there.  Plus, it is at recent lows already.  Soybeans taking the biggest hit, I think the trade was much more worried about the potential for a tight supply there nd are more willing to sell based off the numbers.  Wheat for winter went down and spring went up.  Not much there, I think up side whould be limited now.  All in all, I think this report makes a rally during harvest that much harder to believe.  After harvest maybe but not for a while and it will help with the more variable yields we might hear as the harvest moves north and west."

 

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures contract opened 2 cents higher at $4.56. The Nov. soybean futures contract opened 7 cents lower at $13.12. Dec. wheat futures started 1 cent lower at $6.82 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $1.40 per short ton higher at $416.90. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.24 lower at $41.57. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.08 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 146 points lower.

 

 

Mike

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At 7:10am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 4-5 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

The USDA September 30 Stocks Report will be released at 11am CT.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$1.48 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading sharply lower, with a U.S. government shutdown likely at midnight.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower, Europe stocks lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,117
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

A sept. 30 report trumped by the Dollar. That should be very enightening to all the dollar sceptics out there.

Senior Contributor
NDf
Posts: 324
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

So enlighten us jr the dollar index has been very weak lately and the grains haven't responded with much strength. The new crop grain markets have all been about supply and demand since last spring.

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,643
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

2013/14 Corn Production
Do you agree with the corn production (13,843 mb) the USDA estimated on September 12 for the corn crop currently in the ground?
Percentages
60.4562737643 percent 19.0114068441 percent 7.60456273764 percent 12.927756654 percent
60% 19% 8% 12%
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Vote Legend
1) Lower than 13,2 billion 159
2) Between 13,3-13.5 billion 50
3) Between 13.6-13.8 billion (current USDA 13.8) 20
4) Higher than 13.8 billion 34
Total Votes: 263

Results current as of:
30-Sep-13 09:31 AM

 

 

 

 

Starting to look like more and more are looking closer at their fields or actually getting into it with their combines.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
NDf
Posts: 324
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

Hobby the contrarian in me makes me want to go with opposite of the majority so i will sayno 3. It really doesn't matter even at 13.2 we have enough corn.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,038
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

At 10:45am:

 

Interesting market this morning. At this time, corn is down 1/2 of a cent. Soybeans are down 12 cents.

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,087
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

Here comes the PAIN!!!!

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 770
Registered: ‎06-04-2010

Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

This is just another poor report.  If you look at the disappearance of corn from June to august, its ALMOST the same as last.  No Way we have that much corn in storage.  and You'd have to look really, really hard to find a grain bin full of corn in my area.  

 

On the beans no way we have that many beans either,  look at the exports we had all summer long.  There was no reason for farmers to hold grain over the last 12 months, especially in the bins.

 

 

Its too bad the gov. didn't shut down on Friday.   as long as you have the federal intervention into the farmers business,,aka ethanol mandates, USDA reports, you wont' have a free market and we, the farmers, are just surfs for the CEO's of all the major agri businesses.    

And this is why I'm against Obamacare and anything else that comes from D.C.   

 

SInce the market started working to the report as early as 10:45, someone can't keep their mouth shut either.   

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,499
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

Ah yes,  But notice that they increased last years bean yields by .2 bpa........Yes.......2012's yield.    Wow, how's that for creative accounting?

 

Actually, being close enough to new crop, they can say whatever they want is in the bins. Nobody can tell whether it's old or new crop.  

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Contributor
Barr-Clay
Posts: 11
Registered: ‎09-03-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 30 (Report Day)

Cost of production comes to mind with $350+ cash rents......