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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk September 4

[ Edited ]

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At the close:

The Sep. corn futures contract closed 4 cents lower at $4.94 per bushel. Dec. corn futures contract finished 6 cents lower at $4.69. The Sep. soybean futures contract finished 37 cents lower at $13.97, new-crop Nov. soybeans closed 34 cents lower at $13.52. Dec. wheat futures finished 1 cent lower at $6.46 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $16.20 per short ton lower at $422.70. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.26 lower at $43.93. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.58 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 98 points higher.

 

 Mike

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At mid-session:

The Sep. corn futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $4.92 per bushel. Dec. corn futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $4.69. The Sep. soybean futures contract is trading 40 cents lower at $13.95, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 40 cents lower at $13.46. Dec. wheat futures are trading 6 cents lower at $6.40 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $16.30 per short ton lower at $422.60. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.46 lower at $43.73. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.03 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 109 points higher.

 

Tim Hannagan, Walsh Trading grain analyst, says funds are still taking profits.
"It’s the sixth consecutive week where we started higher on weather fears only to have funds take profits the next day. Funds can pay handsome bonuses on profits taken."
But the break in today's prices should be looked at as a buying opportunity, he says. "The 6 to 10 day weather outlook is hot and dry and next week's USDA Crop Report will be feared to be bullish lending to shorts buying out and new longs entering."

 

Yet another analyst says, "This is a continuation of the weather uncertainty that has gripped the market for the past two weeks.  Soybeans, where concern about yield is the greatest, lead the market from day to day.  Traders continue to try to balance the tightening of the domestic balance sheet against a South American crop year that has grown year over year.  This, of course, is also being played out in an environment in which the fund position that had been record short is being unwound in an effort to pare the risk presented by the shrinking yield.  Corn remains a follower.  However, the inevitability of a substantial corn crop and it’s forthcoming harvest is beginning to weigh on prices and slowly separate itself from the soybean story.  Yesterday was a prime example of that."

 

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Sep. corn futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $4.91 per bushel. Dec. corn futures contract is trading 3 cents lower at $4.71. The Sep. soybean futures contract is trading 12 cents lower at $14.23, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 13 cents lower at $13.73. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1 cent lower at $6.45 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $6.00 per short ton lower at $432.00. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.15 lower at $44.04. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.25 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 7:45am:

Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group analyst and CME Group floor trader, says the grains were down across the board in the overnight session, as profit taking kicks in, especially in the soybean complex. "The die was cast yesterday when November soybeans could not hold their lofty level and corn and wheat futures tumbled yesterday morning. Traders will now shift their focus to the next USDA WASDE report scheduled to be released September 12th."

 

--Meanwhile, Allendale released this statement in their daily newsletter to customers, this morning. "US farmers are reporting a lower nationwide bean yield. USDA estimated this year's crop at 42.6 bushels per acre in August. Allendale's Nationwide Producer Survey reveals a yield of 39.0 bushels per acre. This represents the largest drop from USDA's August estimates to Allendale's Yield Survey in its 24 year history."

 

--FC Stone Int'l releases its yield estimates this afternoon.

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 5-7 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 16-18 cents lower (old-crop), and wheat 3-5 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 4-6 cents lower and soybeans are seen 15-17 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.69 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen steady, as investors remain cautious with more talk of U.S. military action in Syria. The Beige book will be released today, an economic measuring stick.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower, Europe stocks lower.

 




More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

not sure a lot of producers will agree a substantial corn crop is on the way.

 

again, with 75% of the belt's corn in most important early grain fill phase with dryness - extreme heat - followed by more dryness in Aug into Sep US might end up with a mediocre to tight production number.

 

my 3 cents.

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,065
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

CX-1 ole buddy -- it just depends on what state you live in -  :smileywink:

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

sorry ECIN, i meant the "collective" producer. I tend not to get backyard-itis since the hood only grows a few bu of sweet corn in the GARDEN.:smileytongue:

 

how are ears filling in your fields? hasn't it been dry EVEN in yer neck, ol' buddy?

 

...or does it only mean yer yields will go from record 240 down to 195:smileywink:

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

c-x-1,

 

Check your weather maps to see where the rain fell in late July. From what I hear, those rains were yield savers for the U.S. corn crop. It would be interesting to see a map of rainfall in that late July timeframe.

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,065
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

Well CX-  I have to run around the barn lot to give you a good answer - lol But about a month ago - In my checks -- for 2 weeks straight - At that time and date - it showed 265 bpa - remeber at that  time ! - I like to do these checks - so I can watch were the crop is headed and why -- Waited 2 weeks in the start of the dry weather - did a check and it was down to like 209 bpa - so in 2 weeks , the dry weather cut my yield 56 bpa - I did a half azz check a week ago and it wasat 195 - I would say as of now - if I end up with 175- 180 - I'll be happy .

 

The thing you have to remeber CX - Is  this corn went in May 2,3, and 4th that I checked - I do have some corn planted May 14 and 15th - ( I was tying to let the slackers out west catch up some ) And I need to do a good check on it this week .

 

Also The corn here was pretty far along when it got hot and dry and would not effect it as much as the late corn up north and west -- Or was that Northwest ? anyway - The corn in my area - should be more than enough to make up for  all the slacker states . :smileyvery-happy:

 

So now what was your question ?   Oh yeah -- You are pretty close .

 

BTW  - looks like new corn here , will start to flood the markets in the next 2 weeks off the gravel -- mine - looking more like the last week Sept. or the first week Oct.

 

Talked to college buddy this morning from Vincennes IN - More starting to fire up to catch the higher basis - corn running high 30's to 40 mositure .

Contributor
HoosierFarmer
Posts: 6
Registered: ‎08-31-2013
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

FWIW. We are located 30 miles west of Purdue.  I sell 100 acres of corn for silage to the local dairy. It was chopped last week. The tonnage to bushels was 190 equivalent. My numbers are very close to ECIN. This corn graded 230 the last week of July. It was planted May 6th. We caught an .8 rain August 6th that made a huge difference in helping our corn hold on and produce. I agree my average will be hopefully in the 180 range

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 4 -for entire mo of Jul

Mike, certainly some good rain for about 1/3 of belt in July - don't be too suprised if Final is in the 11's - just sayin'

 

ScreenShot041.gif

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 4 -for entire mo of Jul

Notice that the map shows decent rain for the norheast quadrant of Iowa. That is where the 'honey spot' of corn production is in this 'Tall Corn' state.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 4

[ Edited ]

interesting indeed, Mike. That was ALSO the area of IA that was most severely flooded through early June - not sure they needed any July precip:smileywink:

 

anyway, here are a couple of snapshots (mid Jul & end) from Jeff @ the Climate Corp - their field level crop progress. So y'all be the judge - interesting to look back @ develop. phases.

 

ScreenShot042.gifScreenShot044.gif