09-06-2012 06:50 AM - edited 09-06-2012 02:30 PM
Full Story: Brazil faces crop logistic blackout
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract setled 7 3/4 cents higher at $7.98 1/2. Nov. soybean futures contract finished 1/2 of a cent lower at $17.47. Dec. wheat futures settled 23 1/2 cents higher at $9.10 1/2 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.59 lower at $57.38. The Dec. soymeal futures contract ended $3.10 per short ton higher at $528.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.06 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 216 points higher.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 7 3/4 cents higher at $7.98 1/2. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $17.47. Dec. wheat futures are trading 20 1/2 cents higher at $8.88 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.62 lower at $57.35. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.80 per short ton higher at $528.80.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.51 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 235 points higher.
One analyst says wheat is up on news Ukraine could stop exports in a month or so, once the surplus is gone.
Ukraine stated that they want to make sure the domestic market there has plenty of wheat and are ready to shut it down. Russia still says no, but said they might buy what is available from the Kazaks to cover. So, this implies higher prices too.
Corn is higher, due to a Thursday announcement of an 'unknown' purchasing 217,000 tons of corn for 2012-14 delivery, he says. This is the second sale for the next crop year in a week.
"Plus, corn is going along with wheat. Meanwhile, soybeans are a mess, as weak cash markets keep futures weak. But, buying is coming in spurts with the grains. Seems like mostly specs both ways. My commercial side is quiet right now and Brazil is trying to sell rallies in beans, but is quiet in corn right now," he says..
Corn market gyrates! Corn is now back up 5 centsa
Corn and soybeans are now trading lower, wheat higher.
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 4 3/4 cents higher at $7.95 1/2. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $17.44 3/4. Dec. wheat futures are trading 10 cents higher at $8.77 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.24 lower at $57.73. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.80 per short ton higher at $525.80.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.71 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 214 points higher.
With nearby contracts offering premium compared to forward prices, the market is screaming to farmers, "Sell off of the combine!!"
As you get set to rev up your combine engine in the next few weeks, are you pointing your semi's towards the nearest elevator, ethanol plant, or end-user out there?
Or, did I just hear the sound of a key turning the lock on a bin door that you will store this year's crop into? It's decision time, with historic prices sitting in front of you.
Thanks for sharing,
USDA announces that an unknown buyer purchased 217,424 mt of U.S. corn Thursday. Here's how it breaks down:
32,512 mt for 2013-14 delivery and 184,912 mt for 2012-13 delivery.
Somebody is trying to secure $8 corn. Any guesses who that might be?
And lookee here, a South Korea buyer purchased 174,000 mt of Brazilian corn, Thursday. U.S. corn store isn't the only one open in town, huh?
USDA's Weekly Export Sales will be released Friday morning, instead of today. Also, Informa will release its updated U.S. crop estimates at 10:30am.
The trade sees FC Stone's estimate, released Wednesday, as bullish for the corn market.
--Corn yield pegged at 121.4 bu./avre vs. the USDA 's latest 123 yield. If realized, the total production would be 10.607 bill. bushels.
--FC Stone's soybean estimate of 36.7 bu./acre is equal to the USDA's latest estimate of 36.1. If realized, that would be a total cropsize of 2.739 bill. bushels.
Early calls: Corn 7-8 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents lower, and wheat 10-12 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$1.02 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, as the European Central Bank's President is expected to announce a bond-buying program for the debt of eurozone countries.
More in a minute,
09-06-2012 07:07 AM
We are past Labor day weekend and oil is going higher. I believe this is a indication that grains will move higher long term. Are we at a low point now for long term grain prices? Is inflation hitting grain prices too? It is hard to believe that $8 corn could be a new normal. I guess $4 dollar gas seems normal now.
09-06-2012 08:16 AM
Rode the wave last night. Bought Soybeans at the close on Wednesday just to see it tank all night. Woke up and saw it back up to the 1746 level. Talk about swings. Lets see what the next couple of days bring us.
09-06-2012 08:18 AM - edited 09-06-2012 08:18 AM
Yes, it certainly is possible to see $4 corn again. But, will we see $9 or $10 corn first? But, yes, the descent could be dramatic, when it occurs.
09-06-2012 08:38 AM
Mike, I for one will still be using my grain bins as usual. I just might be moving it out sooner than usual though. And still might sell a little off the combine, but most will be stored until after the new year......If I get enough to fill the bins.
09-06-2012 09:46 AM - edited 09-06-2012 09:49 AM
WOW. I thought I had bought at a high level and when you are starring at the cliff it gets scary. With last nights trade tanking to 1725.2 , I thought to myself, "**bleep** they stuck it to me again!" Here I go and buy when the markets are starting to look the other way. Time to be even more cautious. Be safe fellas!!
09-06-2012 10:30 AM - edited 09-06-2012 10:32 AM
Allendale releases pre-report estimates Thursday. What say you?
"Corn- Though corn production is seen falling 453 million bushels. we see almost all of that offset by lower old and new crop demand. Yields are estimated at 118.2.
Soybeans- New crop production is seen falling 90 million bushels from USDA's August report. Yields are estimated at 34.9.
Wheat - We see US exports struggling to meet USDA hopes. Foreign production has been raised compared with last month."
Supply & Demand, to be RELEASED 7:30 AM CST ON 09/12/12
PRODUCTION 11/12 12/13 12/13
In million bushels USDA USDA Allendale
Corn 12358 10779 10326
Soybeans 3056 2692 2602
All Wheat 1999 2268 2284
Other Spring 455 500 513
Durum 50 86 88
Winter 1494 1683 1683
HRW 780 1012 1012
SRW 458 435 435
WW 256 236 236
US ENDING STOCKS USDA ALDL USDA ALDL
in million bushels 11/12 11/12 12/13 12/13
US Corn 1021 1128 650 623
US Beans 145 139 115 91
US Wheat 743 743 698 732
WORLD ENDING STOCKS USDA ALDL USDA ALDL
in million metric tonnes 11/12 11/12 12/13 12/13
World Corn 135.97 135.22 123.33 121.05
World Soybeans 51.94 51.88 53.38 52.80
World Wheat 197.59 197.62 177.17 175.12
09-06-2012 10:45 AM
WORLD COURSE GRAINS SUPPLIES KEEP GOING LOWER...........
and it appears they breached the sacred 650M and 100M thresholds domestically..........
and I don't think they are low enough on yield for either crop..........
complacency in this market is crazy right now.........