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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk September 6

[ Edited ]

Full Story: Brazil faces crop logistic blackout

 

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At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract setled 7 3/4 cents higher at $7.98 1/2. Nov. soybean futures contract finished 1/2 of a cent lower at $17.47. Dec. wheat futures settled 23 1/2 cents higher at $9.10 1/2 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.59 lower at $57.38. The Dec. soymeal futures contract ended $3.10 per short ton higher at $528.10.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.06 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 216 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 7 3/4 cents higher at $7.98 1/2. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $17.47. Dec. wheat futures are trading 20 1/2 cents higher at $8.88 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.62 lower at $57.35. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.80 per short ton higher at $528.80.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.51 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 235 points higher.

 

One analyst says wheat is up on news Ukraine could stop exports in a month or so, once the surplus is gone.  
Ukraine stated that they want to make sure the domestic market there has plenty of wheat and are ready to shut it down.  Russia still says no, but said they might buy what is available from the Kazaks to cover. So, this implies higher prices too.  
Corn is higher, due to a Thursday announcement of an 'unknown' purchasing 217,000 tons of corn for 2012-14 delivery, he says. This is the second sale for the next crop year in a week.  
"Plus, corn is going along with wheat. Meanwhile, soybeans are a mess, as weak cash markets keep futures weak. But, buying is coming in spurts with the grains. Seems like mostly specs both ways. My commercial side is quiet right now and Brazil is trying to sell rallies in beans, but is quiet in corn right now," he says..

 

Mike

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At 10:55am:

Corn market gyrates! Corn is now back up 5 centsa

 

Mike

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At 10:30am:

Corn and soybeans are now trading lower, wheat higher.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 4 3/4 cents higher at $7.95 1/2. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $17.44 3/4. Dec. wheat futures are trading 10 cents higher at $8.77 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.24 lower at $57.73. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.80 per short ton higher at $525.80.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.71 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 214 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:20am:

With nearby contracts offering premium compared to forward prices, the market is screaming to farmers, "Sell off of the combine!!"

 

As you get set to rev up your combine engine in the next few weeks, are you pointing your semi's towards the nearest elevator, ethanol plant, or end-user out there?

 

Or, did I just hear the sound of a key turning the lock on a bin door that you will store this year's crop into? It's decision time, with historic prices sitting in front of you.

 

Thanks for sharing,

 

 

Mike

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At 8:15am:

USDA announces that an unknown buyer purchased 217,424 mt of U.S. corn Thursday. Here's how it breaks down:

32,512 mt for 2013-14 delivery and 184,912 mt for 2012-13 delivery.

 

Somebody is trying to secure $8 corn. Any guesses who that might be?

 

And lookee here, a South Korea buyer purchased 174,000 mt of Brazilian corn, Thursday. U.S. corn store isn't the only one open in town, huh?

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

USDA's Weekly Export Sales will be released Friday morning, instead of today. Also, Informa will release its updated U.S. crop estimates at 10:30am.

 

The trade sees FC Stone's estimate, released Wednesday, as bullish for the corn market.

--Corn yield pegged at 121.4 bu./avre vs. the USDA 's latest 123 yield. If realized, the total production would be 10.607 bill. bushels.

--FC Stone's soybean estimate of 36.7 bu./acre is equal to the USDA's latest estimate of 36.1. If realized, that would be a total cropsize of 2.739 bill. bushels.

 

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 7-8 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents lower, and wheat 10-12 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$1.02 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, as the European Central Bank's President is expected to announce a bond-buying program for the debt of eurozone countries.

World=Higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 220
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk September 6

We are past Labor day weekend and oil is going higher.  I believe this is a indication that grains will move higher long term.  Are we at a low point now for long term grain prices?  Is inflation hitting grain prices too?   It is hard to believe that $8 corn could be a new normal.  I guess $4 dollar gas seems normal now.  

Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 144
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk September 6

You will see $4 corn again.

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,129
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 6

Rode the wave last night.  Bought Soybeans at the close on Wednesday just to see it tank all night.  Woke up and saw it back up to the 1746 level.  Talk about swings.   Lets see what the next couple of days bring us.  

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 6

[ Edited ]

vandenplas,

 

Yes, it certainly is possible to see $4 corn again. But, will we see $9 or $10 corn first? But, yes, the descent could be dramatic, when it occurs.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk September 6

Mike, I for one will still be using my grain bins as usual. I just might be moving it out sooner than usual though.  And still might sell a little off the combine, but most will be stored until after the new year......If I get enough to fill the bins.     :smileywink:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,129
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 6

[ Edited ]

WOW.   I thought I had bought at a high level and when you are starring at the cliff it gets scary.  With last nights trade tanking to 1725.2 , I thought to myself, "**bleep** they stuck it to me again!"  Here I go and buy when the markets are starting to look the other way.  Time to be even more cautious.  Be safe fellas!!

 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 6

[ Edited ]

Allendale releases pre-report estimates Thursday. What say you?

 

Allendale statement:

"Corn- Though corn production is seen falling 453 million bushels. we see almost all of that offset by lower old and new crop demand. Yields are estimated at 118.2.
 
Soybeans- New crop production is seen falling 90 million bushels from USDA's August report. Yields are estimated at 34.9.
 
Wheat - We see US exports struggling to meet USDA hopes. Foreign production has been raised compared with last month."
 
     Supply & Demand, to be RELEASED 7:30 AM CST ON 09/12/12
 
PRODUCTION           11/12    12/13       12/13     
In million bushels    USDA     USDA     Allendale   
Corn                       12358    10779       10326
Soybeans                3056     2692        2602
All Wheat                1999     2268        2284
Other Spring             455      500         513
Durum                        50       86          88
Winter                     1494     1683        1683
 HRW                       780     1012        1012
 SRW                       458      435         435
 WW                         256      236         236
 
US ENDING STOCKS           USDA       ALDL       USDA      ALDL
in million bushels                     11/12     11/12       12/13    12/13
US Corn                                  1021      1128         650      623
US Beans                                  145       139         115       91
US Wheat                                  743       743         698      732
 
WORLD ENDING STOCKS         USDA       ALDL      USDA      ALDL
in million metric tonnes                  11/12     11/12      12/13     12/13
World Corn                                    135.97    135.22     123.33    121.05
World Soybeans                             51.94     51.88      53.38     52.80
World Wheat                                 197.59    197.62     177.17    175.12

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk September 6

Mike,

 

are Informa #'s out yet?

 

thanks,

c-x-1

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,332
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk September 6

WORLD COURSE GRAINS SUPPLIES KEEP GOING LOWER...........

 

and it appears they breached the sacred 650M and 100M thresholds domestically..........

 

and I don't think they are low enough on yield for either crop..........

 

complacency in this market is crazy right now.........