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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,090
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk September 7

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract settled 1 cents higher at $7.99 1/2. Nov. soybean futures contract finished 10 1/2 cents lower at $17.36 1/4. Dec. wheat futures finished 13 1/4 cents higher at $9.05 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract settled $0.77 lower at $56.61. The Dec. soymeal futures contract closed $1.20 per short ton lower at $526.90.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.90 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points lower.

 

One analyst says, "Today's trade was some follow-through buying tied to the wheat export ban talk out of Russia and Ukraine.
"Plus, the corn and soybean trading patterns were as much about the Informa crop estimates as anything else today," he says.
Harvest is coming and underway in many areas, and the buy side of the market has backed away, he says.  
"That is why we were a bit lower in the early trade, but once the Informa estimates came out they were called bullish by the trade and we recovered. The dollar weakness was not all that important today," he says.  
Late in the day, some spec-selling and perhaps a little commercial pre- hedging occurred, before the weekend.  
"Overall, I doubt we do much until Wednesday. But, unless USDA comes out bullish, we may have seen some highs for a while."

 

Mike

-----------

At 12:30pm:

Informa, the private analyst firm, updated its U.S. crop production estimates Friday:

 

Corn Yield 119.8 bpa vs 120.7 previously and USDA 123.4

Corn Prod 10.310 bil bu vs. 10.338 previously and USDA 10.779

Soybean Yield 35.4 bpa vs. 37.2 previously and USDA 36.1

Soybean Prod 2.639 bil bu vs. 2.791 previously and USDA 2.692

Cotton Prod 17.6 vs. 18.261 previously and USDA 17.65

(“Most Likely Final”)

Corn Yield 126.5 bpa

Corn Prod 11.000 bil bu

Soybean Prod 2.690 bil bu

 

Mike

------------

At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 4 1/2 cents higher at $8.03. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $17.47 1/4. Dec. wheat futures are trading 17 3/4 cents higher at $9.09 1/2 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.56 lower at $56.82. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.50 per short ton higher at $530.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.52 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.

 

Mike

--------

At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $7.94. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 18 3/4 cents lower at $17.28 1/4. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1 3/4 cents lower at $8.90 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.62 lower at $56.76. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.90 per short ton lower at $524.20.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.06 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 1 point lower.

 

Mike

---------

At 7:30am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales are bearish for corn, maybe neutral for beans and wheat:

 

Corn=129,200 metric tons

Soybeans=525,700 mt

Wheat=573,400 mt.

 

It all looks weak, except for wheat numbers. What say you?

 

Mike

----------

At 6:55am:

Market Noise:

--Russia's grain output is seen growing to 122-125 million tons by 2020, President Vladimir Putin says, according to a Dow Jones Newswire story Friday.

--Asian buyers are gobbling up corn, fearing the USDA will drop output levels in its Sept. 12 Report and causing prices to go higher. South Korea bought more corn Friday.

--USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report will be released at 7:30am CT. Will the report show more China soybean buying?

 

Here's what the trade expects:

Corn= 200,000-350,000 metric tons.

Soybeans=600,000-775,000 metric tons.

Wheat=375,000-600,000 metric tons.

 

Mike

-------

At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.10 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, as the world markets are liking the European Central Bank President's announcement of a bond-buying program for the debt of eurozone countries. Up next, U.S. Jobs Report Friday.

World=Higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,090
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 7

It is looking like a lower trading day ahead.
Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,132
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 7

w/ all the liquidation this week, lows might be in + the "evening position-wise up" factor

Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 211
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 7

Harvest time and the market is still firm.  I think this bodes well for 2-3 weeks from now.  But if the bull starts running, I will stay on the sideline.    http://www.youtube.com/embed/2h-WhhqFjv4?feature=player      Mike, if you can figure out why somebody run with the bulls?  Please tell me why.   I ran from my herd bulls, and I was scared.

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,132
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 7

Informa??

Veteran Contributor
glenlivet18
Posts: 119
Registered: ‎06-17-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 7

Soybeans just got up off the deck in a big way.  Looking to buy Nov @1750.  Last year the beans collapsed $2 in September.  It tends to make a low in October, but who knows what's going to happen this year.

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,132
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 7

1740 should hold.

ever try Macallan?

Veteran Contributor
glenlivet18
Posts: 119
Registered: ‎06-17-2011
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Re: Floor Talk September 7

I have.  Wonderful fireside drink.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,090
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk September 7

c-x-1,

 

Just posted Informa's numbers in orginial thread. Their estimates look bullish.

 

Mike

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,132
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk September 7

thank you Mike,

 

do you have any idea why their final is so different than current est?

 

thx,

c-x-1