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03-29-2013 06:44 AM - edited 03-29-2013 02:54 PM
I've put another pot of coffee on. Got a few minutes? Have a seat and let's listen to a few ag economists (Dr. Frayne Olson, NDSU & Chard Hart, ISU) discuss three topics:
1. So, where did all of those corn stocks come from.
2. Will the new U.S. corn outlook impact planting?
3. Current soil conditions in North Dakota and Iowa.
Well, the coffee is on. Does anybody care for a cup? I would like to wish a Happy Easter to everyone. Maybe this weekend will help us all keep things in perspective.
I am hearing the bloodletting is not over. And, the corn market could be headed for a year-low mark on Sunday night or Monday.
Does this almost cement the idea of less U.S. corn being planted in April? Are you sitting at your breakfast table, this morning, wondering if you should have sold those bushels sitting out there in your bin? Or, are you still satisfied that you didn't price them and remain confident that a weather rally is around the corner, China will start buying on this dip, livestock feeders will buy on this dip, and ethanol producers will start gobbling up more corn, thus pushing prices back up?
03-29-2013 07:05 AM
I think you hit the bulls- eye and hopefully not the bears eye --- did a drive around yesterday and moisture in N E Nebr, is as scarce as hens teeth with stream flows being record low---
03-29-2013 07:13 AM - edited 03-29-2013 07:14 AM
We have seen this show before. A report like this can be really hard on prices for a while. I wonder if old Tom Vil. had rose colored glasses on for this report. His wife just got a newly created goverment job on Washington to promote reading world wide. Don't know where the money came from with all the hurt being done from the big 2.5% budget cut on the increase in spending. Atleast the kids will be able to read about the old White House tours.
It still is about the weather, and if the Fed can keep the Street pumped up. Too bad all the sucker endusers where paying too much for corn, since there is way more out there than they thought. I know prices at the grocery store will be dropping like a rock ASAP.
But it is the roller coaster ride that keeps farming from getting boring.
And Easter couldn't come at a better time, there are far more important things than the price of grain.
03-29-2013 07:22 AM - edited 03-29-2013 07:32 AM
Not overly concerned. As jec22 said, we have seen this all before.
Going to plant big acres, and have the highest yeilds ever.
Moves the market on report day. Probably not much further next week, as weather will become front & center.
Yet scarcely any has been planted.
As the last several years have proved, its a long way before harvest.
03-29-2013 07:25 AM
Well, Mike Mock tried to warn us http://video.andersonsgrain.com/ I don`t know about everyone else but next week I`m gonna get on my hands and knees and beg someone to buy my corn. I`m gonna sell 200 bu/ac new crop corn as soon as I can get a market, I just hope it isn`t too late to do the right thing
03-29-2013 07:28 AM
I might be worried about that unpriced corn in my bins........if I had any.... USDA's x-ray vision from the sky on the grain bins is flawed....That large amount of farmer stored corn may not be quite that large. One excuse was a large amount of aflatoxin corn that is waiting to be blended with new corn? I would like to know who has that stuff still in their bin?...........anyone? Gotta feel sorry for the end users that bought all that corn last week. They should've waited.
FWIW, A local ethanol plant dropped their basis about 23 cents yesterday, so their corn bid was 63 cents lower for a one day's move. I'm guessing that the 23 cents is protection for Monday's further move lower.
03-29-2013 07:31 AM
Sent: Thu, Mar 28, 2013 2:17 pm
Subject: Record Corn Volume
03-29-2013 12:20 PM - edited 03-29-2013 02:14 PM
i have yest being the record - cmegroup has 655k
i recorded 11/9/2011 @ 645k
but whose splitting hairs? yesterday WAS a changing of the guard...ie Capitulation.
03-30-2013 08:58 AM
I watched (and listened) to the video. After pondering it for a few hours,
1. They didn't say anything. They didn't even provide any data or analytic basis for their comments. Professors are supposed to do their homework and share the results. They sounded like every other talking head. Just more of the Electronic Media Fiction Machine hard at work. It was a pathetic attempt at being a rational scientist, which they are paid handsomely to act like.
Sorry if this is harsh, but I find no one playing the role of "Peer Review" anymore. A startling abscence of science.
2. The other thing that is just bizarre is simply this. They reference the "accurate" GOV REPORTS telling us that there are more livestock units on feed. They then reference this Stocks Report. They take as a given in their video (which is fine since they have to I suppose) that the Stocks report is accurate. Yet, they just ignore, or laugh off, the fact that the livestock report must be inaccurate. Or, they note that the feed number has been problematic, but no data to quantify or verify the passing thought.
That is what hit me after a few hours, the last report issued was likely wrong, but THIS ONE is not. It is this underlying assumption in all of the Electronic Media Fiction that needs to be challenged. NOT ONE STORY published yet by SF about the ongoing increasing rate of error in series based reports like the Stocks Report.
Another example, the FED QE easing. Most American's don't know (because the Electronic Media Fiction ignores it) that almost all of these e-created new dollars this year are being invested in European bank, or by extension into European Soverign, debt. The FED has become the LAST "greater fool" investor. Just seems to me like the public should know where their wealth is going is all.