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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor talk September 15

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 23 1/4 cents lower at $7.01. The Nov. soybean contract closed 24 cents lower at $13.58 3/4. The Dec. wheat futures closed 8 1/2 cents lower at $6.96. The Dec. soymeal futures closed $9.40 per short ton lower at $354.00. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.55 lower at $56.55.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.44 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 171 points.


One analyst says the lower closes were a result of a big spec selling day.  The fundamental factors were the lack of freeze damage reported and the bad export sales for wheat and beans.  Corn sales were great but the weather was king.  I kind of thing we are getting to the overdone point for the short term.  Markets could bounce back tomorrow even though we are getting into harvest in lots of areas now.  We will see.  At any rate, I don’t think rallies are worth all too much for the next few weeks unless we get some big demand news or something."

 

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

All markets are seeing double-digit losses.

 

Mike

---------

At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened 4 1/2 cents lower at $7.19 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract opened 3 1/4 cents lower at $13.79 1/24. The Dec. wheat futures opened 5 1/2 cents lower at $6.99. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $3.90 per short ton lower at $359.50. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.10 higher at $57.20.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.85 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 48 points.

 

Mike

-------------

 

At 8:05am:

The word is the trade doesn't feel like the freezing temps were as cold as first thought. As a result, the 'early calls' are lower. However, strong Weekly Export Sales may provide some underpinning for corn.

 

Mike

------------

At 7:45am:

The USDA released bullish corn Weekly Export Sales Thursday.

 

Corn=1.17 million metric tons of sales reported vs. trade expectations of 550,000.

Soybeans=351,900 mt of sales last week vs. the trade's expectation of 500,000.

Wheat=413,500 estimated sales  vs. the expectation of 450,000 mt.

 

Also:

--Japan announced Thursday it will buy 109, 356 mt of milling wheat.

--China announced it will keep import quotas for grain unchanged in 2012 from 2011.

 

 

Mike

----------

At 6:35am:

Early calls: Corn and soybeans 6-8 cents lower, and wheat seen 5-7 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.45 higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher. The Labor Dept. releases the Jobless Benefits Report.

World Markets=Higher. UBS announced that an unauthorized trade cost them $2 billion.

 

I know it was cold overnight, in the northern Corn Belt. How hard was the freeze? In fact, a Minnesota radio station is reporting the lowest temperature found overnight was 19-degrees (didn't catch the town, sorry). But, most temps were in the 30's, with some below. Overall, it's  being called a widespread frost. This hour (6am) in Minneapolis it's 34-degrees.

 

More in a minute,
 
Mike



Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 9,132
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 15

Hi Mike, it`s been 28º for about an hr in NCIA.  In the low lying areas it has a coating of frost, I would call it a killing frost there.  My corn is black layered, beans have all turned and dropping leaves here and there, this frost had to ding `em a little.  There are green beans in the area, you hear of corn in the Dakotas that hasn`t dented yet.  This cold snap has to grawlix the yield overall a little.

"Courage is fear that has said it`s prayers"
Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 15

I took a trip to Grand Island Neb. Yesterday and I couldn't believe how green the corn was yet in some fields, they are usually ahead of us for maturity, it'll make it might have to be dried, we'll need good long harvest window this year.  

Veteran Contributor
mvp farms
Posts: 97
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 15

19 was reported south of Roseau.  That area was in pretty early I believe and it isn't a HUGE bean area anyways.  Most of NW MN hasn't reported any temp that low...yet

Frequent Contributor
wcohRagweed
Posts: 37
Registered: ‎09-07-2011
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Re: Floor talk September 15

Brr.. it's even chilly over in Ohio this morning. Still lots of beans in this area mostly green, my first planted field just started to get some yellow leaves the last couple days. I have the greenest corn in the area. I think it's greener now than it was in July.

 

Sounds like stuff in the freeze is farther along? May just **bleep** a very small amount of yield off the top?

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 15

[ Edited ]

IMG_3118.JPG

 

Grass blades with frost in central Iowa.

 


IMG_3116.JPG

 

On Wednesday morning, this frost covered the neighbor's car in central Iowa.

 

IMG_3117.JPG

 

As the sun came up this morning on these beans, it didn't appear that they had frost sitting on them. The grass in the photo above, and the windshield with frost, were right next to this soybean field.

 

FWIW,

 

Mike

 

 

 

Mike

 

Contributor
deerguy
Posts: 18
Registered: ‎06-21-2010
0

Re: Floor talk September 15

frost in so central ia.  was on sleeping bag covering my wifes tomatoes.  also can see in wetlands down in the valley.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 15

BA Deere,

 

From the looks of it, the frost delivered. Just how hard and how much damage is yet to be determined. The kicker may be if it returns tonight, huh? Do you think 130 million bushels of corn and 30-40 million bushels of beans were perished?

 

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 15

[ Edited ]

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Clarion%2C+ia

It's 28 in Clarion, ia right now......they dropped to 26 for several hours already.........there are a lot of miles between Clarion and Canada.........

Edit: I thought demand was soft.........I thought that's why we were not going to run short.....
Sure damage will be sporadic......not sure if it's sporadic enough to ignore

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor talk September 15

mvp farms,

 

Yeah, that's what I thought. When the temperature was given on the radio, there wasn't a lot of emphasis or surprise about that area getting that cold. I wondered if it didn't have the soybean area like other parts of Minnesota. I'm sure the commentators would have said something. Thanks for the input on that area.

 

Mike