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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,893
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor talk September 26

[ Edited ]

I returned from a stop in westcentral Illinois. I caught up with Pete Gill, a Stark County, Illinois farmer that is thankful for a '$1 Million Rain' that is now showing up in his yields.

 

1) Gill comments on this year's harvest.

 

I also spoke with Dave Mowers, a crop consultant from Stark County, Illinois. He summed up the corn crop from planting to harvest.

 

2) Take a look.

 

3) See Slideshow: "Better than expected"

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec. corn futures closed 9 1/2 cents higher at $6.48. The Nov. soybean contract settled 1 3/4 cents higher at $12.59 3/4. The Dec. wheat futures settled 7 1/2 cents higher at $6.48 1/4. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $0.10 per short ton higher at $330.20. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.24 lower at $52.40.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.65 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 212 points.

 

Video: Closing market commentary

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 11 1/2 cents higher at $6.50. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 4 1/2 cents higher at $12.62 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures are trading 14 cents higher at $6.55 1/2. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.90 per short ton higher at $332.00. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.09 lower at $52.55.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.50 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 152 points.

 

One analyst says, "I think we are seeing a recovery trade after the beating these markets have taken in the last week.  Specs have been buying and some commercial buying in cash markets I think. It was just too much too fast to the downside.  A fast start but the markets have turned rather quiet now.  Farmers are starting to harvest and the results from my guys up north have been pretty good.  We will see if this trend continues but that seems to be the talk around.  If so, the upside might be limited."



Mike

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At 7:30am:

Early look at technical trading:

Tom White, FutureRoad.net analyst and CME Group corn pit trader says, "Selling continued last week as the market completed a five wave pattern and tested to a lap extension area at 639 which resulted from a pattern from Thursday.  On a very “long term” basis (i.e. weekly charts), we still have a ways to go before being totally convinced on the short side.  For example, if the market does continue lower and holds at or near the trend channel bottom (604) or even double bottoms at or near the July low at 575.4, this will still have been considered to be corrective.  Shorter-term, however, the market does appear to want to move lower as there are negative reversals which could take us back to test the mid-line at 629.6.  If we recover this week, we will monitor for a possible move back to 660.2."

 

Mike

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At 6:25am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents lower, and wheat seen 2-4 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.
Crude Oil=$0.63 higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher after sharp plunges last week. Investors are trying to get a grasp on whether the Euro officials will be able to get a handle on their debt crisis. New U.S. homes sales figures will be released for August today.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, while Europe stocks are higher. There's rumor the European Central Bank is set to cut interest rates.

 

Note:

I returned from a stop in westcentral Illinois. I caught up with Pete Gill, a Stark County, Illinois farmer that is thankful for a '$1 Million Rain' that is now showing up in his yields.

 

Gill comments on this year's harvest.

 

I also spoke with Dave Mowers, a crop consultant from Stark County, Illinois. He summed up the corn crop from planting to harvest.

 

Take a look.




 

More in a minute,

 

Mike



Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,893
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 26

[ Edited ]

Quotables

 

Here are a few quotes that I'm hearing from folks in ag country. I'm not saying these are widespread feelings. They are just things that I'm hearing on my travels during this harvest season.

 

--"First time corn is doing 50 bushels better than corn-on-corn this year."

 

--"I've never seen my yield monitor jump so widely, in the same field, as much as this year."

 

--"The timing of nitrogen is becoming more important than how much is applied."

 

--"Better yields are coming from these better hybrids."

 

--"Have priced some 2012 crop but none for 2013."

 

--"In the past few years, the guy that didn't sell his crop aggressively has made out."

 

--"I'm 35% sold on this year's crop"

 

--"Ethanol plants are making money at $7. Corn will have to go higher for any pullback."

 

--"Some seedcorn fields have already been plowed up"

 

--"If northwest Iowa beans have a 7 in front of their yield number that won't help the market."

 

--"I've seen a few guys with drills in the fields. Not sure what crop they are putting in."

 

 

Just curious to see if you guys/gals that follow Marketeye feel similar to what I'm hearing out in the field.

 

Mike

 

Senior Contributor
425Cat
Posts: 1,177
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 26

Thanks for the updates Marketeye not sure what it all means. Lot of information to sort thru this year trying to nail down crop size. Over on ag web they are starting a yield map by state across the US. So far no big averages there nationwide. Eventually we will know just hate to see a few big yielders add fire to the bears arsenal.  Should be a green day today doubt its a trend changer though.

 

Good Luck

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,893
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 26

425Cat,

 

I hear you. I'm not sure what it all means either. You just put it all into a pot and mix it up. Something will come out tasting multi-flavored, I'm guessing.

 

I'm also hearing that equipment adjustments are needed to harvest that 'downed' corn in southwest Iowa. And, Nebraska's corn, though not much activity yet, is expected to be pretty good. We'll see.

 

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
ehoff4187600
Posts: 46
Registered: ‎07-13-2010
0

Re: Floor talk September 26

It all means to me that we have enough to get us through to next harvest. Once we get good midwest growing weather we are going to grow a monster crop. It may be time to go long Tyson/Smithfield. With each roll of drainage tile that is installed the average U.S. yield goes up. A look at the cotton and wheat chart may indicate what the corn/soy charts will look like.

Advisor
Pupdaddy
Posts: 618
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 26

...If this rain doesn't stop, we may be making adjustments to combine beans in NW Ohio...like fitting the combine with pontoons. Inch and a half in the gauge already this morning..and looks like it's going to rain all day. Rain is forecasted for tomorrow..and probably Wed. too....

 

Senior Reader
Farmer Joe
Posts: 2
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 26

Some of us only have 38 KBPS dial up, a synopsis would be very helpful, as videos take hrs to load if at all.

Community Manager
Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 946
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 26

Just saw some comments from a crop consultant in south-central Illinois in reference to St. Charles County, IL:

 

"My customer has all his corn harvested.  Several farmers are done or close to done in that area although, there is maybe 40% remaining...It is striking how many soybeans are yellow.  Because they are photo sensitive, it is not too surprising this is all occurring at once.  Some of the double crop soybeans look quite good although they are still green."

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Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,893
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor talk September 26

Farmer Joe,

 

Give me a little time and I will summarize the videos for you. Sorry the videos don't fire for you.

 

Mike