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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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From the floor August 11

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures contract settled 25 1/2 cents higher at $7.14. The Nov. soybean contract ended 30 1/4 cents higher at $13.31 3/4. The Sep. wheat futures closed 16 1/4 cents higher at $7.01 1/4. The Sep. soybean meal futures contract closed $8.10 per short ton higher at $353.70 and Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.98 higher at $54.58.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.88 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 355 points.

 

Because of disappointment from not returning to 'limit up', the corn market sold off, on the close.

 

One floor trader says, "The foundation has been laid for a smaller U.S. 2011 corn crop. The yield is going south and the market is headed north. People now believe the average U.S. corn yield may be 150 bushels per acre. I've heard estimates as low as 145," he says.
Because the market wasn't able to close 'limit up', the corn market may have a down day Friday, he says. "In the long run, a down day doesn't matter, because this new foundation tells us we don't have a big crop.
Going forward, all eyes are on crop-weather, traders say. However, interestingly enough, a lot of people think the corn crop story may be nearly over. For soybeans, August remains a critical weather month for crop development.
"Although some people say the corn kernels can still fill out and raise this crop size. My guess is the story is over and we are going to have a smaller crop," he says.

 

Mike

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At 11:30am:

Video: It's always nice to visit with farmers that stop by the CME Group. I twisted the arm of this Northwest Iowa farmer to visit about crops, marketing, and farm business. You can  Watch the interview here. Grab lunch and sit in on the visit.

 

Mike

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At 12-Noon:

Corn is up 28 cents, soybeans are up 38 cents, and wheat is up 15 cents. Some corn futures traders are taking this quiet time to do their daily stretches, read their favorite newspaper or tell Cubs jokes. Even the options pits are quiet.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures contract has come off its 30 cent daily trading limit to now trade 23 1/2 cents higher at $7.12. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 33 cents higher at $13.34 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures are trading 15 cents higher at $7.00. The Sep. soybean meal futures contract is $8.40 per short ton higher at $354.00 and Dec. soyoil futures are trading $1.05 higher at $54.65.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.34 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 165 points.

 

The fact that corn came off it's limit up move is a reflection of commercial profit-taking, one trader says. The market is expected to go back up the limit at the close, he says. And, this higher trading is expected to last through Friday.

 

Mike

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At 9:45am;

Corn came off its 'limit up' mark and is now trading again! It won't happen today, but I'm being told corn is working its way to the $8.20 mark.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures hit the 30 cent daily trading limit at $7.18 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract opened 49 1/2 cents higher at $13.47. The Sep. wheat futures opened 34 cents higher at $7.19. The Sep. soybean meal futures contract opened $14.40 per short ton higher at $360.00 and Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.17 higher at $55.30.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.34 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 165 points.

 

The options pits are very very loud.

 

Mike

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VIDEO: This analyst sees this morning's report as very important. Watch video here.

 

Mike

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At 8:15am:

Corn is trading 20 cents higher, right now, via swaps.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

Early Calls: Corn 10-15 cents higher, soybeans up 10-20 cents, wheat is called 15-20 cents higher. 

 

Mike

--------------

At 7:30am:

USDA SAYS:

--2011 corn crop=12.914 billion bushels, compared to the average analysts estimates of 13.083 billion bushels and the USDA's July estimate of 13.470 billion bushels.
--Soybean crop= 3.056 billion bushels compared to the average analysts estimate of 3.174 billion bushels and the
government's previous estimate of 3.225 billion bushels.

--Wheat Wheat's production at 2.077 billion bushels, lowered from 2.106 in July. 

Yields:

Corn= 153 bushels per acre vs. the USDA's July estimate of 158.7 and the average trade estimate of 155.2 bushels per acre.

Soybeans=41.4 bushels per acre vs. the July estimate of 43.4 and the average trade estimate of 42.8 bushels per acre.

 

REACTION:

--One trader says this report will send corn and soybeans "limit up". No trading today boys," he says.

 

--Another trader says, "Shockingly bullish for beans and corn. Yields slashed to lewvels far below the average guess. Corn production under 13 billion is long term bullish. Now we have to ask, what if its really a 151?" 

--Another analyst says, "Everything came in friendly under pre-report expectations. "Bean production under the lowest average guess was a surprise with half the pod-filling stage left to go. Traders thought the report would be aggressive on corn cuts and conservative with beans and it was the reverse. Nothing shockingly bullish, but traders went into the report mildly long due to outside market news. So, traders will be aggressive buyers early."

--Yet another analyst says, "On vacation with limited access – yet….hope I can be of help.The yield number is the big surprise – the market and most analysts were not expecting that big of a surprise – most expectations were for a graduals yield decline over the next few months, not 5 bushels on this report. Looks friendly from yield decrease and a market that could find money looking for a home."

 

Mike

----------

At 7am:

News of note:

--Remember that USDA Weekly Export Sales will be out today.

--China is reporting about 2.0 million acres of its northland is threatened by drought.

--67% of EU's wheat crop is now rated as milling wheat, with quality concerns ongoing.

 

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls: Subject to this morning's USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand Reports at 7:30am CDT. Watch for the USDA numbers right here at 7:30am.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$0.45 lower.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher after Cisco, the technology company, released better than expected earnings.

World Markets=Mixed.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike



Veteran Contributor
docharing
Posts: 139
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: From the floor August 11

Looks like limit up, what say you?

 

Contributor
DodgeRam
Posts: 27
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: From the floor August 11

What about wheat?  have heard nothing on that. thanks

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: From the floor August 11

I'm now hearing limit up corn but soybeans maybe not.

 

Traders are talking about how the USDA reduced exports to make these numbers work. We lost corn and soybean demand in the numbers.

 

Mike

 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: From the floor August 11

Wheat's production at 2.077 billion bushels, lowered a bit from July. Wheat is called 15-20 cents higher.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: From the floor August 11

So, with the USDA leaving planted corn acres at 92.3 million and slightly changing soybean acres to 75.0 million, the traders turned their attention to harvested acres. Well, the USDA only dropped harvested corn acres by 500,000 acres to 84.4 million.

 

One firm's analyst says the real news of this report comes in the rationing categories and exports.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,629
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: From the floor August 11

I`m lovin` that USDA!!  These reports are highly accurate, survey a larger area than the privates would be able to.  The USDA folks all deserve a raise!!     Keep up the Good work Mike  :smileyhappy:

Don`t redistribute my wealth, redistribute my work ethic.
Senior Contributor
SouthWestOhio
Posts: 519
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: From the floor August 11

I don't think I'll hear anyone calling the USDA liars today.

Community Manager
Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 990
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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Re: From the floor August 11

Hey, Dodge. Here's USDA's full WASDE sermon on wheat this a.m.:

 

All wheat production, at 2.08 billion bushels, is down 1 percent from the July forecast and down 6 percent from 2010. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 45.2 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month but down 1.2 bushels from last year. 2 Crop Production (August 2011)Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, up slightly from last month and up 1 percent from 2010. The United States yield is forecast at 46.3 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last month but down 0.5 bushel from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain totals 32.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 2 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter, at 794 million bushels, is up slightly from a month ago. Soft Red Winter, at 452 million bushels, is down 1 percent from the previous forecast. White Winter is up 3 percent from last month and now totals 251 million bushels. Of this total, 11.8 million bushels are Hard White and 239.3 million bushels are Soft White.Durum wheat production is forecast at 57.1 million bushels, down 10 percent from July and down 47 percent from 2010. The United States yield is forecast at 42.4 bushels per acre, up 3.7 bushels from last month but unchanged from last year. Expected area to be harvested for grain totals 1.35 million acres, down 18 percent from last month and down 47 percent from last year.Other spring wheat production is forecast at 522 million bushels, down 5 percent from last month and down 15 percent from last year. The expected area to be harvested for grain totals 12.3 million acres, down 7 percent from last month and down 8 percent from last year. The United States yield is forecast at 42.5 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushel from last month but down 3.6 bushels from 2010. Of the total production, 475 million bushels are Hard Red Spring Wheat, down 6 percent from last month and down 17 percent from last year

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Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: From the floor August 11

I think the wild ride we have been on is about to get wilder.