08-16-2011 06:45 AM - edited 08-16-2011 02:14 PM
At the close:
The Dec. corn futures settled 7 1/2 cents higher at $7.27 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract settled 1 3/4 cents lower at $13.49 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures closed 12 1/4 cents higher at $7.24 3/4. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.08 higher at $55.54. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $0.30 per short ton lower at $357.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.09 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 110 points.
Wheat Options Talk: One trader says the stage is set for drama, but it just doesn't happen. "The macro forces at work surrounding these commodity futures (i.e. the stock market, the dollar) are all contributing to a very unpredictible, often explosive environment, intermingled with days like Tuesday that entice those impatient participants into reacting with logical actions to a situation that all to often behaves in its own repeatedly illogical fashion. In other words, it's really tough keeping up with the short term nuances of a futures market that everyone agrees seems to be on the cusp of the dramatic," he says.
The Dec. corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $7.22. The Nov. soybean contract is 1 cent lower at $13.50 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures are trading 13 1/4 cents higher at $7.25 3/4. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.24 higher at $55.70. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.30 per short ton lower at $356.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.57 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 35 points.
At the open:
The Dec. corn futures opened 5 1/4 cents lower at $7.14 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract opened 6 cents lower at $13.45 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures opened 4 1/2 cents lower at $7.08 1/4. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.18 lower at $55.28. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $2.50 per short ton lower at $355.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.31 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 50 points.
The outside markets and world economic worries are pressuring the grain and soybean markets, traders say.
Demand seems to have dried up. Here's another morning where the USDA puts out no new purchases. Hmmm. Is this a sign of how the world economies are tightening spending?
With the USDA keeping the corn and soybean ratings stable Monday, talk now heats up on whether the USDA's 153 corn yield average is too high. As mentioned on this site before, I imagine the jawboning on what the yield should be will go on until those little yellow starch-filled objects are falling into that big basket that sits above a combine. What do you think?
Early calls: Corn down 5-7 cents, soybeans down 8-10 cents, and wheat down 2-4 cents.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$1.18 lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower as Germany reports weak economic growth. For the second quarter, Germany's economy grew only .1% while the expectation was .5%. Yesterday Japan's economic data helped the markets, today Germany's data hurts. Makes you wonder who's up tomorrow?
More in a minute,
08-16-2011 07:51 AM
If you all remember I'm from around the Nebraska City Area 50 miles south of Omaha, our corn "looks" good around here, BUT it didn't fill very well at all, in fact some ears are only about 50% kernels on them, some ears are OK there isn't any perfect ears that I can see in my corn, now other people say differnent things, all say its pulled back or tipped back what ever you want to call it.
I went to a Plowing Bee/Threshing Day over the weekend 40 miles south of me, the corn is really hurt down there, places in the field where it is completely burned up,
Is the 153 to high, well I'm going to have less then average?? I don't know what the final yield will be but I am going to say its below trend line.
08-16-2011 07:59 AM
Good morning. How are the flooded southwest Iowa, southeast Nebraska fields looking? I understand some highways are opening back up. I imagine the fields hit the hardest remain empty? The folks I talk to on the Iowa side of the line say the crops look good. And do you agree with the USDA's decision not to include those flooded areas in that re-survey they did for the August Report?
Also, cash corn basis took a hit in August, so I'm told. What about around Neb. City? And what kind of price are you hearing offered along the Missouri River? Thanks for sharing.
08-16-2011 08:59 AM
As far as the flooding Hwy 2 is still closed and will be for a long time since it washed out, the first of the month there was still alot of water over there, From certain vantage points in Neb. City you can see over there to the iowa side and the top of the levee is visible but there is still a current beyond the levee. The water has gone down some. I got a picture of a field in SE Missouri where the river went out over there this spring, Its going to be several years, if ever when that certain field can ever be farm again,
Most of the basis for corn around here is 2 cents under the board, or even with the board. We where as high as 15 over once, not for sure if they think they can milk the supplies till harvest or what. Even the ethanol plant is the same as my local coop for basis.
I guess on the resurvey did the throw the acres out al together, there is nothing there where it is flooded so why count them as even planted.
08-16-2011 03:08 PM - edited 08-16-2011 04:09 PM
Tell that trader I think it is called denial. Corn left under loan, 109 mil. Last year on Sept 21 there was 118 mil under loan. Balances for same period (August 9) in 2010, 237 m., 2009 244 mil., 2008 192 mil. So does that mean commercials are holding that much grain?
The market usually over corrects, both the low and high side. $7 corn is not an overcorrection. Did I read that the longs dropped 42% last week. If so, that is one impressive market to hold that kind of long liquidation.
Preventative plant acreage at 10.6 million. Is that correct? If this was like 2008, corn would be at 4-5 dollars already.
Going back to last August, alot of farmers dumped their grain for less than four bucks, only to see corn trade with a six in front of it just three months later.
Nothing wrong with todays prices. Plenty high for the grain farmer. But that doesn't determine price.
08-16-2011 06:35 PM
25% of remaining corn under loan left the program last week?? And will continue to shrink pretty quickly...
This is so far different than 1996 it's not even funny..
farmers still have corn, elevators still have corn, and spots are best of the year
bought a hundred lot from a commercial elevator at 5 cents over posted bid....
08-16-2011 10:54 PM
I hauled in a load of corn to the local Co-Op. Talking to the guy unloading, he said they are getting in very little corn, and if no one hauls in any more, they will be clean out in 10 days to 2 weeks, except for what a local feedlot has already contracted from them. The ethanol plant won't be getting any more from them after that, unless the trucks start rolling in.
08-17-2011 10:01 AM
Ray, that is why I stay bullish. This old grain is moving, and moving well. We weren't suppose to run out of corn, and we won't. But those extra bushels that guys have to sell at harvest, won't happen if corn yields match what it looks like walking the fields today. That will set up a nice rally Sept thru Nov.
We are moving old corn, we held off long liquidation, and we are still moving higher. What is the saying, when bearish news doesn't break the market, that is bullish.