08-24-2011 06:30 AM - edited 08-24-2011 01:37 PM
At the close:
After hitting a new contract high at $7.48, the Dec. corn futures contract traded both sides only to close 1/2 of a cent lower at $7.43. The Nov. soybean contract closed 3 3/4 cents lower at $13.93 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures settled 7 1/4 cents lower at $7.77 1/4. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.12 higher at $56.33. The Dec. soymeal futures closed $1.30 per short ton lower at $374.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 64 points.
Gold dropped today. So, the investors were selling it and going into treasuries. The old longs were doing this. The ag commodities were caught in the whirlwind of it all. There was no real story in the grain markets today.
With the exception of wheat dropping to 10 cents lower, the corn and soybeans are mixed. This market is really whip-sawing today.
One analyst says, "I think the market was reacting to some weakness in the US Dollar as well as the continued poor production reports from the crop tour. But, I sense a lot more interest in selling today in both corn and beans. Corn got close to 750 Dec and I heard a lot of local interest in selling against that level. Beans made it to 1400 Nov and I heard the same interest. It looks like they are selling! I also think we are hearing a lot of bad news about production, but demand is no thrill either. We might talk about that a little more once the tour is about over, and this could cause the market to break a bit. Some of the selling now is coming from the local and spec selling interest noted above along with a turn in the USD to a little higher and some weakness in equities."
After hitting a new contract high at $7.48, the Dec. corn futures contract is trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $7.44 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract is 1 1/4 cents lower at $13.96. The Dec. wheat futures are trading 4 1/2 cents higher at $7.89. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.29 higher at $56.50. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.00 per short ton lower at $374.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.48 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 9 points.
A report out today shows that a lot of 'call' options at the $9 strike price have been purchased, since Aug. 1. There are already a lot of $8 and $8.50 calls already purchased too. This equates to milions upon millions of bushels of corn.
Meanwhile, a floor trader says the September Report could see a yield below 150 bu./acre. And with that type of number printed, the market would certainly hit the $8 mark. But, he doesn't see a raging higher market, because this less than ideal crop is being priced-in right now.
After the open:
Corn and soybeans have turned higher, wheat still lower. The floor is getting louder. We must be seeing some buying here. Let's see if it lasts.
At the open:
The Dec. corn futures opened 1/2 of a cent lower at $7.43. The Nov. soybean contract is 2 1/4 cents lower at $13.94. The Dec. wheat futures opened 1 cent lower at $7.83 1/2. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.20 higher at $56.23. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $0.50 per short ton lower at $375.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 74 points.
--USDA announces Wednesday that an 'unknown' buyer purchased 133,500 mt HRW for 2011-12.
Meanwhile, I'm hearing that profit-taking could be the ruling theme for today's farm markets.
Early calls: Corn and soybeans down 1-2 cents, and wheat down 2-4 cents.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.05 higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower as investors are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of Friday's speeech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The hope is 'ole Ben is digging around in his economic-boosting 'tool box' for the right instrument to get the economy's engine to stop leaking oil and help it hit on all cylinders.
World Markets=Europe stocks are higher while Asia/Pacific is lower. The world investors are banking on Mr. Bernanke introducing ideas of a possible third stimulus package for the U.S. economy. Also, Moody's downgraded Japan's credit rating, sending Asia/Pacific stocks tumbling.
More in a minute,
08-24-2011 07:29 AM
I hate to point this out but what is ol' Ben going to do next? They can't get interest rates any cheaper, I'm already hearing banks are charging clients for checking accounts, Will they pump more money into the Dow? Buy more bonds? The longer they keep this up the worst it will get later. Just something for everyone to think about Pres. Carter raised the money supply 13% and most of you reading this know where interest rates went after that, This administration has raised the money supply 120%, now someone tell me what is going to happen when this ballon busts? I don't know how they came up with the percentages and I can't ever remember what web site I was on when I read that, but I hope they put the decimal in the wrong place. And I've been hearing that the social security people are saying no inflation so they are not raising benefits, at least this last year, Now someone said that the wages that will be increased will be increased by such a small amount that inflation will eat up the extra money.
Left hand and Right hand need to get on the same page,
And then I heard weather or not this is true that some of the traders in Chicago are looking to go short, would anyone go short this market, now with the yields that May be out there?
08-24-2011 07:54 AM
Bernanke is all about theory. If you remember back when he was named the new Fed Chair, the op-ed pieces were all about how Ben thinks more academically vs. Alan Greenspan's 'Wall Street' approach. So, whatever academic theory that may be out there for Bernanke to glob onto is probably what will be used to structure his next step. What that is I have no idea. But, I have heard that at some point interest rates that don't solve any problems at record-lows will start a trek back up.
Having said that, maybe we are in such uncertain times and unchartered territory that "theory" is thrown out the window and Friday's speech will surprise us all. After all, it is an election year.
No matter, eyes around the world are glaring at Jackson Hole, Wyoming and ears are perked to any whisper of another stimulus package.
08-24-2011 01:20 PM
I am sure some cattle guys are banking on wheat pasture in the SW to feed cattle this year, not to mention the cattle out of the SE that sometimes move to wheat pasture. If it doesn't rain in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas in the next 30 days, there will be more feed demand and not much wheat pasture.