02-02-2011 06:35 AM - edited 02-02-2011 02:15 PM
At the close:
The March corn futures settled 3 1/4 cents higher at $6.69 1/2. The March soybean contract closed 6 cents higher at $14.44. The March wheat futures closed 27 1/4 cents higher at $8.63. March soybean meal futures settled $3.10 lower per short ton at $386.90. The March soyoil futures settled $0.53 higher at $59.25.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.29 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 13 points.
USDA announces Wednesday that 440,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2011-12 delivery.
Meanwhile, there is uncertainty in the world:
--Egypt army asks the protesters to now leave.
--A monster cyclone hits Australia.
--A winterstorm to remember is blasting much of the U.S.
--China still buying lots of soybeans, when will they start corn purchases?
The March corn futures are 1 3/4 cents lower at $6.64 3/4. The March soybean contract is 4 cents lower at $14.34. The March wheat futures are 18 1/4 cents higher at $8.54. March soybean meal futures are $4.50 lower per short ton at $385.50. The March soyoil futures are $0.26 higher at $58.98.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 1 point.
Because of uncertainty with Egypt's situation, investors are either sitting on the sidelines or taking profits, one trader says.
Yet another broker/analyst says, "today, it looks like buy the rumor and sell the fact trading to me. The storm is now moving east and what is done is done. Plus the Dollar is a little higher and things seem fairly quiet today in the Mideast. I have not seen a lot of action on either side of the market so far, I think it is mostly larger spec trading and some funds too. My guys, farmers or industry, are quiet so far today, but many sold the rally yesterday to get out before today. A very light volume day, so far, as most people have snow shovels in hand and not computers."
At the open:
The March corn futures are 6 1/4 cents higher at $6.72 1/2. The March soybean contract opened 8 cents higher at $14.46. The March wheat futures opened 12 cents higher at $8.47 1/4. March soybean meal futures opened $1.30 lower per short ton at $388.70. The March soyoil futures opened $0.44 higher at $59.16.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.58 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 13 points.
Pit trading is delayed until 10am. what I'm reporting is the electronic trading.
Early estimates for next Wednesday's USDA Feb. S&D report:
Allendale Inc. released this Wednesday:
Corn - US ending stocks will have declined in eight of the past nine months. Higher ethanol usage, offsetting lower feed and exports, was responsible for this month's decline. Argentine corn production is lowered by 1 million tonnes to 22.5.
Soybeans - US ending stocks will have declined in each of the past six months. Higher exports will offset a decline for domestic crush. We expect USDA to lower Argentine soybean production by 0.5 million tonnes to 50.0. Brazil production is left unchanged at 67.5 mt.
Wheat - Strong export sales in recent weeks will help push US ending stocks even lower. Though these stocks are not tight, it will keep the focus on world food needs and potential winter-kill losses.
Yesterday marked the first day for crop insurance rate averaging. With December 2011 corn at $5.96 and November 2011 soybeans at $13.68, the averaging is off to a strong start. Are you watching this average? Or, is it something you don't pay attention to?
Early calls: Corn up 4-5 cents, soybeans 6-8 cents higher and wheat 10-12 cents higher.
Overnight grain markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.07 higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat-to-higher as investors focus on more corporate earnings. Unemployment and housing numbers still weigh on the stock market.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific higher, Europe stocks lower.
Wow! What a storm, and it's not over. For the first time in my four years of living in Chicago, I see no cars on Lake Shore Drive, no traffic on the side streets, and city buses snowed-in and stranded along the side of the streets. As of 4:30am, 16.5 inches of snow have been recorded. And I'm from the country, so I know wind. But, we had 12 hours of 60-mph wind gusts. It was unbelievable. I saw lightning and heard thunder last night too. Right now, it's still snowing and blowing. The only things on the streets are SUV cop cars and front-end loaders.
More in a minute,
02-02-2011 07:07 AM
Yes Mike..... IMO.... The ave price in Feb will most likely have a huge effect as to what will get planted this spring...... Storm here in central MI...... Not to bad...... There has been a lot worse..... We will be back to normal by this afternoon...... p-oed
02-02-2011 09:31 AM
Hi Marketeye. Just saw an update that China bought 440,000MT of soybeans. Is that new or old news?? Hows the snow going in Chicago? This is the lurker from the meeting in fargo that said hi while you were eating.
02-02-2011 10:46 AM - edited 02-02-2011 10:48 AM
Those kind of insurance prices makes we wonder if there will not be another adjustment to crop insurance. When you are starting to look at coverage in the range of $800+ plus per acre. Could there be a change that puts a maximum payout in the policy. I mean, you have to consider that crop insurance is driving up rents also, I don't think that is how it was intended when created.
Or as a landlord, why not buy the crop insurance and have the farm custom farmed?
02-02-2011 11:01 AM
Here's what Marketeye trekked through on the way to the floor today. A little snow can't keep a SWIA boy down, can it, Mike?!
02-02-2011 11:33 AM
It was great to talk to you in Fargo. I hope you guys were able to learn something from those southern speakers.
Yes, that China purchase is new business. Chicago has received close to 20 inches and it's still snowing. It's being labeled as the third worst snowstorm on record, for this city.
Again, thanks for saying hi in Fargo and thanks for sharing in this old cafe. Don't be shy and keep us up to date on the Red River, would ya?
02-02-2011 03:30 PM
I was wondering if you could give me some insight at to the high run up in wheat. All sectors of wheat had very strong gains today, KC, CBOT and even MGEX. Are we not still awash in large wheat stocks and also isn't there quite a bit more winter wheat acres planted this year? I guess I am wondering if there is some actual solid productions issues that is causing this or is it just speculators?
I really appreciate your insight!
02-02-2011 03:46 PM
Freezing weather causing winter-kill to Plains wheat in dormancy. That's what I'm hearing boosted wheat prices Wednesday. Don't forget wheat quality issues that are still out there. With possible food inflation problems, more wheat demand based on the idea that grain can be turned into food quicker than other grain types.
Hope this helps,