02-04-2011 07:32 AM - edited 02-04-2011 02:13 PM
At the close:
The March corn futures settled 16 cents higher at $6.78 1/2. The March soybean contract closed 2 cents lower at $14.33 1/4. The March wheat futures ended 5 1/4 cents lower at $8.53 1/4. March soybean meal futures settled $3.20 lower per short ton at $383.20. The March soyoil futures closed $0.20 higher at $58.98.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.59 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 10 points.
News: U.S. Grains Council returned recently from a trip to China. They report that their group was given estimates that China is short 10-15 million metric tons (394-591 million bushels) in corn stocks and will need to purchase corn this year. China may battle South Korea as the top corn importer.
The group learned the Chinese government normally keeps stocks at 30 percent, but currently that level is just over 5%. This is why they say China may need imports of 3-9 million tons (118-354 million bushels). The news did impact the corn market Friday, helping it reach a 30-month high.
I'm being told by my Brazilian contacts that a record crop of 70 million metric tons is possible this year. As of today, 10% of the Mato Grosso soybeans have been harvested. However, heavy rains is causing concern about the soybean quality. Also, 1% has been harvested in Parana. Some yield reports are averaging 55 bags or 49 bushels per hectare. I'll pass along more yield reports when I get there next week.
Meanwhile, one analyst says regarding today's market, "Corn and beans saw two sided trade early as more profit taking set in after the contract highs Wednesday and ahead of the weekend. But, theres buying under the market in anticipation of bullish news next week. One, the coldest temperatures of the year enter mid- week and that means more soymeal and corn needed for cattle feed to keep their weights up and two, traders fear a bullish crop report by the U.S.D.A. next Wednesday.This will keep breaks to a minimum."
The March corn futures are 3 3/4 cents higher at $6.66 1/4. The March soybean contract is 4 1/4 cents lower at $14.31 1/4. The March wheat futures is 4 1/4 cents lower at $8.54 3/4. March soybean meal futures are $1.70 lower per short ton at $384.70. The March soyoil futures are $0.26 lower at $58.52.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.86 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 12 points.
At the open:
The March corn futures are steady at $6.62 1/2. The March soybean contract opened 3 cents lower at $14.32 1/2. The March wheat futures opened 4 cents lower at $8.55. March soybean meal futures opened $1.60 lower per short ton at $384.80. The March soyoil futures opened $0.23 lower at $58.55.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.66 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 6 points.
USDA announced Friday that private exporters sold U.S. corn to Japan, not China, as reported earlier. Today's announcement includes sales of 101,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan. Of the total 50,500 tons is for delivery in 2010/2011 marketing year and 50,500 tons is for delivery during the 2011/2012 marketing year.
The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.
Acreage Ramp Up
One analyst is saying that with cash HRS wheat prices going over $10 this week, it brings in the issue of the 2011 'Acreage Battle'. For farmers in those fringe Corn Belt states, that thought they could have some HRS wheat acres planted to alternative crops, now have to battle this high market as well, he says.
"You know, you have cotton making new highs and HRS wheat prices finding a new high, so the market is left looking at the Corn Belt trying to buy more corn and soybean acres.
He says this is what you're going to have to bank on is a lot of wheat being pulled off for soybeans. If we are going to get big acres all around, you're going to need to bank on getting 7.0 million acres-plus of 'double-crop' soybeans on wheat. Plus, those acres that were going to be soybeans need to go to corn. That is a micro look at it. We did this in 2008. We're going to have to go back and do that again.
Our total acres, for all crops (corn, soybeans, oats, rice, barley, sorghum, cotton, hay, etc), will have to get around that 2008 level of 350.4 million. Last year, the U.S. planted 341.8 million total acres."
What say you? Can we get there to 2008 acreage? And will the market ask for that many?
Friday's U.S. Jobs Report disappoints the trade. In January, the payrolls increased 36,000, and the consensus was for 136,000. The U.S. unemployment rate falls though to 9.0%. Meanwhile, the Dollar is strengthening, due to the weaker jobs numbers.
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans down 1-2 cents and wheat 1-2 cents lower.
Overnight grain markets=Traded mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.60 higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher as January job growth is expected to show up in Friday's jobs report.
More in a minute,
02-04-2011 08:16 AM - edited 02-04-2011 08:17 AM
Mike...... I don't think that the market was looking for corn sales to china today....... It will be interesting to see how they react to that...... It would appear that based on the last couple of weeks that the export market has pick up a lot..... So much for rationing in that sector.....Let us know as to what the traders are thinking about this if you can Mike.....TIA...... p-oed
02-04-2011 08:37 AM
There goes any chance of higher corn calls. We may start higher anyway, but even though the two countries have the same amount of letters in their names, the word Japan means something much different than the word China.
02-04-2011 08:41 AM
Seems like the USDA would wait until April fools day to do that then they could just say......"Fooled ya"......p-oed
02-04-2011 10:02 AM
350 million acres is possible.Less acres in CRP than in 2008 Atimely planting season and wheat harvest would help. Lots of snow and a wet fall in S. Dak.. This would set back Spring Wheat plantings first..
02-04-2011 04:47 PM - edited 02-04-2011 04:52 PM
Some yield reports are averaging 55 bags or 49 bushels per hectare. I'll pass along more yield reports when I get there next week.
That 49 bu./ha. (19.8 bpa?) yield seems pretty low. Wonder what they are averaging.