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01-17-2011 09:09 AM
The CME Group commodity markets will be closed today, honoring the 25th Anniversary of the Martin Luther King Holiday.
While the markets are paused, I'm curious if anyone still has a lot of old-crop to take to market? If so, are you waiting for a planting-time rally or a summer rally?
I'm also hearing from some farmers that they are worried the government will step-in, pull the plug on these higher prices by getting rid of any support for ethanol. Any thoughts?
01-17-2011 09:20 AM - edited 01-17-2011 09:24 AM
60% gone since the first of the year when the local price broke $6.06/bu and $6.25/bu.
I'm going to hold the other 40% for either $8.00/bu or $4.00/bu whichever comes first. Got plenty of operating cash for now.
PS. thank you for those early AM market reports, and the mid day report, and close report, Hell, thanks for all your reports!
01-17-2011 09:40 AM - edited 01-17-2011 09:40 AM
So, what are you doing with yourself over there today, Marketeye?!
In our poll we posted Friday, 64% of those responding say they're going to hold on to their remaining 2010 crop stocks, while 22% say they're going to sell now or very soon. That first number has been above 60% for quite some time, even as more folks respond to the poll. In case you haven't already, you can add your vote here:
01-17-2011 09:43 AM
Still have all the corn and soys. Initially was waiting for the Jan. 12 report and had planned on selling the result. Was pretty confident going in that it would be a bull. Now the greed is setting in and having trouble pulling the trigger. Trying to find out what the weather was on the weekend in Argentina and what the forecast is for the next few days. What is the consensus out there on the open Tuesday.
Have a good day
01-17-2011 10:38 AM
Hi, Winger. Just checking our weather commentary this morning from the gents down the street at Freese-Notis Weather, and they say there were "meager totals" in the first of a few rain systems moving through the corn and soybean belt of Argentina. But, sounds like there should be more coming this week.
So, based on that, do you think there's going to be more potential upside when the opening bell rings tomorrow?
01-17-2011 10:51 AM
50% sold old crop both beans and corn. 0% of 2011 crop. I plan on selling old crop before planting. Will probably sell some new crop also by then.
I think it's way too early to think the gov. will step in.
All this talk of rioting for food. I was wondering if the people rioting would be so upset that they wouldn't pay taxes? Crazy thoughts on this slow day.
01-17-2011 11:12 AM - edited 01-17-2011 01:16 PM
Today is a good day to take the pulse of farmers. Like many, it's concerning that greed is setting in, regarding these markets. On one hand, it's conceivable to think the fundamentals remain bullish enough to support this idea of hanging on for higher highs. On the other hand, you hate to see somebody put their risk management plan on 'cruise control', only to find out one day those higher profits left them and 'oh by the way', the input costs went up for 2011 & 2012, making that bottomline even thinner.
Yes, the market is closely watching Argentina's weather. FYI, we will have a thorough update on that crop this week, watch for it. Our Argentine agronomic sources are compiling a report for Agriculture.com. So, you have Argentine weather looming.
Also, Argentine farmers plan to go on strike this week. That would halt exports, providing possible support for the soybean market.
Next, you have to watch this week's event with the Chinese President visiting the U.S. It's widely felt that China will announce a purchase this week, while 'in-town'.
There still might be a flushing of the trend-following funds' portfolio. Don't be surprised if those funds stomp on the market, for awhile. But, after they let their foot off (And go long and hold until a summer rally), the market is seen bouncing back like a fishing bobber does when the 'big one' nibbles at the bait.
Finally, February is a big month. The average prices for that month will be used to figure crop insurance levels. If fringe Corn Belt farmers (ie. the Dakotas, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, etc) see a high enough insurance rate, it's believed corn will go in the ground faster than you can say 'supercalifragilisticexpialidocious'. I think you get my point. So, in February, we'll see the market working extra hard in trying to attract the farmers' attention.
What say you?
01-17-2011 11:21 AM - edited 01-17-2011 12:21 PM
It looks like you are taking an even-keeled approach to these astronomical prices. Good job and Good luck. Separately, I've talked to older (seasoned) farmers that say, based on their experiences, they see the corn price maintaining a solid ratio margin over soybeans. They say that thinking always worked out for them, when deciding what to plant. I contend, that isn't necessarily the truth anymore. For instance, I know a farmer that has penciled out how he can make more this year by planting soybeans vs. corn. With average yield estimates, knowned inputs, the bottomline favors soybeans. Now, if it's a great corn-growing year but bad soybean-growth, then all bets are off. But, right now, soybeans beat out corn. What say you?
01-17-2011 11:46 AM
Hi Mike, Long time lurker first time poster. Corn: 30% sold out of the field, small sales the last few weeks about 50% left. Sold most the beans out of the field, but have about 15% left to market. Made a small sale on a HTA for Sept. for 2011 crop a few weeks ago not sure if that was the right thing to do, but bought most of my inputs last August so profits are good if the basis don't go to the moon. P.S. Look forward to your post every day.