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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,186
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

From the floor July 26

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 12 1/4 cents higher at $6.86 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract ended 16 3/4 cents higher at $13.88 3/4. The Sep. wheat futures closed 5 1/2 cents higher at $6.94. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract ended $6.20 per short ton higher at $369.30 and Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.52 higher at $57.47.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.30 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 63 points.

 

Mike

------------

At 1:30pm:

Rabobank is estimating that China has ordered 3 million tons of new-crop corn from the United States, according to a Brazilian agricultural newsletter. The bank estimates for China's corn imports were revised to 4 million tons in the crop year that begins on 1 September, the most since 1994.

 

Mike

-------------

At mid-day:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 9 1/2 cents higher at $6.84. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 15 3/4 cents higher at $13.87 3/4. The Sep. wheat futures are trading 6 1/4 cents higher at $6.94 3/4. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract is trading $5.10 per short ton higher at $368.20 and Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.51 higher at $57.46.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.04 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 63 points.

 

Mike

---------



At 10:30am;

Corn, soybeans and wheat trade 2¢ higher, 13¢ higher and 5¢ lower resopectively.

 

Mike

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At 9:45am:

The farm markets have quickly turned negative. Egypt's wheat purchase from Russia doesn't help the wheat market. As a result, corn is being pulled down, despite nice demand from Japan Tuesday. Watch for new weather update at mid-day for further direction, traders say.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened 1 1/2 cents higher at $6.76. The Nov. soybean contract opened 5 1/2 cents higher at $13.77 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures opened 1 cent higher at $6.89 1/4. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract opened $2.40 per short ton higher at $365.40 and Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.07 lower at $56.89.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 85 points.



Mike

-------

At 8:10am:

USDA Tuesday announced Japan bought 200,000 mt of U.S. corn for 2011-12 delivery.

 

Mike

-------

At 7:25am:

Tom White, FutureRoad.net and CME Group corn pit trader says that, technically, he still sees lower markets ahead. "While the market did not close below the $6.73, we still have a minor bias to the short side."

 

Mike

------------

At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 7-9 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$0.46 higher.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher as investors ignore the U.S. debt threats.

World Markets=Higher.

 

Monday's Crop Progress:

For corn, the USDA rated the U.S. crop as 14% very poor-poor, 24% fair and 62% good/excellent. Also, 65% of the corn crop is estimated to be in the silting stage, behind 82% a year ago and a 69% five-year average.

 

"Corn looks fairly bullish off the first view. Soybean conditions dropped as well, but corn really dropped in condition, at least as much as expectations," one analyst says.


"The trade was expecting 2-4% down on corn and it was down 4%. The trade was expecting down 2% on soybeans and it was down 2%," one analyst says.

Soybeans

The U.S. soybean crop is rated 74% good/excellent, 27% fair, and 11% very poor-poor. The USDA estimates that 16% of the crop is setting pods, below a 32% rate a year ago and a 27% five-year average. In addition, 60% of the U.S. soybeans are blooming, vs. 73% a year ago and a 68% five-year average.

Wheat

In its report, the USDA estimates that 75% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is harvested, compared to 78% a year ago and an 80% five-year average. 

The government sees 83% of the U.S. spring wheat as headed, vs. 92% a year ago and 95% five-year average.



 

More in a minute,

 

Mike 



Senior Contributor
Mike M2692830
Posts: 220
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
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Re: From the floor July 26

Mike, I can't help but think there comes a time in the growing season when crop conditions don't get better. They may stabilize, they may get worse, but this time of the the year....MikeM

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,186
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: From the floor July 26

Mike M2692830,

 

I'm hearing of weather models showing a dry first week of August. And soon, the concern for the corn crop will shift from pollination to the filling of the ears. What does anybody know about ear-fill? Will the warmer nights hurt that stage of corn production? Or, as long as you have plenty of moisture, can the plant find the energy and needed material for ear-fill?

 

What say you?

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Mike M2692830
Posts: 220
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
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Re: From the floor July 26

The soil moisture is a big plus especially if we tend to the warmer side. Soil types will afffect that. For us here in NC Iowa most soils are heavy enough to hold ample moisture. We missed last weekends rain. Not a tradegy but a good inch around here would make everyone happy. Without good moisture, the ears will fill but they will be on the light side...MIkeM

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,333
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: From the floor July 26

[ Edited ]

new weather models I found last night were drasitcally different than yesterday morning..........in the AM they had a light dome with rain chances up to 14 days out.........in the PM they had a heavy dome like we just came thru and rain chances were abated up to 14 days out.........

 

this corn and soya crop is going down hill, so buckle up.......

 

as for night time temps and ear fill, yes it has an effect, last year's short crop was blamed on night time temps.........however there was more too it.........and that more too it also happened this year too...........as for the temps at night, it makes the corn plant consume more energy at night thru dark respiration...........and since the plant has no sunlight for photosynthesis at night............it spends part of the day playing catch up before it can get ahead and really fill that ear out........thats a simple overall.........you can make up GDU's with warm temps, however making them up during hours that the plant can not carry on photosynthesis is counter productive.......fact is, its hard to make GDU's in the same period of time without hurting yields..........we would be much better off with more moderate temps and rainfall clear thru first part of October to finish this crop out than to try and jam it into the same window we normally deal with.........

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: From the floor July 26

Heat is never good for the corn crop.  The idea that you need high temps. to catch up in GDU's is false.  High temps, high night time temps burn through the "fuel" of the plant and thus burns the yield.  Just like the Missouri Tiger said, hes exactly right. 

 

Around here SENE I didn't plant some corn until late, and I think I'm really going to get burned.   The early corn looks the best again.

 

 

Mizzou_Tiger, I'm a Husker, but I will greatly miss the Big 12 football games between our two schools.  Nebraska just doesn't fit with the big 10, even in climate just isn't a good match.  

Senior Contributor
ihmarty543282
Posts: 511
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: From the floor July 26

Corn crop here in WCIN is starting to show signs of the effects of the heat and very little rain. Much the same as watching someone die a slow death from cancer. No rain this week. As most know in this part of the country, it never rains in Aug.

Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: From the floor July 26

I went to a seed-corn field day last year, and the agronomist said (at least for our area and soil types) that the best yields were from ample moisture, and enough heat units.  However, the corn plant needs a 'rest' period, just like we need sleep.  Also, after a certain temperature, heat does not help development.  His comment was that if it would rain an inch or so twice a week, and after the sun came out the temperature would quickly rise to 85 degrees, with a high around 88 or so for the day, and it would be 65-70 at night, we would grow the best corn.  Temps over 90 do not speed development of the corn, and just makes it take more water.  If it is too hot and dry, it can take a lot of the plant's energy just staying healthy, and not putting on as much grain.  Cool nights to give the plant time to rest, and draw in more water help make up for hot days.


The above is nothing I can scientifically prove, it is just the conclusions I drew from talking with the agronomist.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,186
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: From the floor July 26

Mizzou-Tiger,

 

Just off the phone with some crop consultants. I'm getting drastically different takes on this crop. One Ohio agronomist says it ain't looking good boys. Meanwhile, a western Illinois agronomist says the yield potential is phenominal for Illinois and Iowa. "Where it's good to grow corn, the potential is really good this year."

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
rightone
Posts: 217
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: From the floor July 26

Marketeye, yield pt is also very good now for MN ( possible record ), NE btw, may also be record, SD looks decent, Wisc is decent too. 

 

IA is likely a new record high on the way, IL is decent too ( just depends on who to believe there ).

 

Basically a basement full of corn farmers this time of year talking crop potential is another term for a whine cellar.

 

Cost affective cattle for every environment here.