06-30-2011 06:45 AM - edited 07-01-2011 10:18 AM
After the close:
I just found out that today's 82 cent break, down 12%, is a record for intraday losses in the market. The biggest one-day drop in history, since 1996.
It was a crazy day. Man! FWIW: I just had a trader tell me that his charts are telling him the $5.80 mark, hit today in the synthetic market, may be the basement for this washout. He's thinking this is a good point to start slowing the damage and working on a turnaround. Will it be China, ethanol buyers, feeders, or others that step in and start the buying?
At the close:
Synthetically, the Sep. corn options closed at $5.96 1/2 and Dec. at $5.83. Meanwhile, the Dec. corn futures closed locked 'limit' down 30 cents at $6.20 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract settled 29 cents lower at $12.94. The Sep. wheat futures closed down its daily limit of 60 cents at $6.14 1/4. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract closed $7.20 per short ton lower at $330.90 and Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.86 lower at $56.15.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.54 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 104 points.
Meanwhile, in a possible signal that we are using less corn, the Energy Information Administration reported less ethanol produced last week. According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 893,000 barrels per day (b/d) – or 37.5 million gallons daily. That is down 8,000 b/d from the week before. The 4-week average for ethanol production stood at 897,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 13.75 billion gallons.
Dec. corn, in the synthetic market is trading $5.84-$5.85, a rally sparked by a huge purchase just moments ago.
A few minutes ago, I reported that wheat hit 'limit' down. Well, don't look now but Russia's grain ban is lifted tomorrow. The weight just got bigger.
Corn is still locked limit down, beans are 22 cents lower, and wheat is 58 cents lower.
The story here on the floor is that without any limits, the July corn is 80-cents lower at $6.17. I just had a longtime corn pit trader say this: "I've never seen corn drop this far in one trading day. Wheat yes, but not corn." And then he said, "A lot of people took a bath on this one."
And synthetically, in the options pit, $5.90 Dec.
Synthetically, the Sep. corn is trading at $6.08 and Dec. is $5.91. Meanwhile, the Dec. corn futures remains locked 'limit' down 30 cents at $6.20 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 17 1/2 cents lower at $13.05 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures are trading 53 1/2 cents lower at $6.20 3/4. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract is $2.90 per short ton lower at $335.20 and Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.86 lower at $56.15.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 117 points.
Synthetically, Sep. corn is trading around $6.08, 40 cents below the futures market. The Dec. corn is trading $5.91-$5.93, synthetically.
On the futures board, the July corn contract is 71 cents lower at $6.27. Meanwhile, Nov. bean futures are trading 15 cents lower.
Synthetically, the Dec. corn contract is trading between $5.90-$5.95. September corn, at $6.11, is almost down double the daily limit of 30 cents. On the futures market, July corn, with no limits, is now 72 cents lower at $6.26.
W O W!!!!!!!!!!!
At the open:
Electronically, the July corn futures contract has traded as much as 82 cents lower. Meanwhile, the Dec. corn futures opened 'limit' down the 30 cents at $6.20 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract opened 30 cents lower at $12.94. The Sep. wheat futures opened 49 1/4 cents lower at $6.25. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract opened $5.10 per short ton lower at $333.00 and Dec. soyoil futures opened $1.26 lower at $55.75.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.34 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 117 points.
Look out below!! The options pits are going crazy. The futures pit is radio-silent.
Corn=92.3 million vs. trade estimate of 90.6 million.
Soybeans=75.2 million vs. 76.4 million trade guess.
Spring Wheat=13.6 million vs. trade estimate of 13.2 mil acres.
Corn= 3.671 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 3.290 bil bu.
Soybeans= 619 million bushels vs. the trade's average estimate of 592 mil bu.
Wheat=861 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 823 mil bu.
Early Calls: Corn limit down on new-crop and old-crop contract has no limit today. Soybeans 20-30 cents lower and wheat 10-15 cents lower.
One trader says: "Very bearish corn. Both Acres and Stocks. The report is friendly soybeans on the acreage front, slightly negative to the wheat."
One analyst says: "A bearish corn number over the high end of expectations and a lower bean number under the low end of estimates , this will create spreading between crops . all the stocks on hand were over pre-report estimates. Markets will react sharply in both direction."
Yet another analyst says, "Well, it looks pretty bearish for corn with both stocks and acres much higher than expected. Farmers pushed forward with plantings even though it was past the normal cut-off date. Old and new crop should be pressured, but a very high export sales number could offer some support to old crop (maybe).
Soybean plantings below estimates are supportive but stocks were high, so that will offset.
Wheat plantings a bit light, obviously coming from lower spring wheat and durum plantings. Spring wheat farmers also pushed through with planting even though it was late. Wheat stocks higher than expected will likely pressure old crop.
Looks like markets will be lower and will target last week’s lows."
Another grain analyst says, "Corn numbers are bearish across the board. Expect sharply lower. They will be questions on the acreage figure. The March-May disappearance was 530 million bushels less than last year. There may be question on this as well.
Soybeans figures were less for acreage: 75.2 million versus pre-report estimate of 76.53. Stocks were negative however with 619 million versus 590 million pre-report estimate."
--A Taiwan buyer has purchased 23,000 metric tons of U.S. corn and 12,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for Aug. delivery.
Early calls: Subject to this morning's USDA June Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports to be released at 7:30am. Watch for numbers and Ealy calls right here, following the report.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading slightly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.17 lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher with more economic reports out today.
More in a minute,
06-30-2011 07:27 AM
Looking forward to the report Mike
I love to watch this game where everybody queues up for the limit up scenario just in case. There are currently 28000 people in line to buy the Sept contract at 708. I guess we will see if that materializes.
06-30-2011 07:44 AM
Frank, great to hear from you. So, did you sell every kernel on your place before now so you'll look like a genius when the opening bell clangs?
06-30-2011 07:49 AM
I guess there has been demand destruction! Who'da thunk it?
BTW there JC got 25 acres to bale up today gonna do about 200 small squares the rest will be round baled. Ya wanna come help? HE HE. Kristy said she was ready to work!
There was to much bullishness ya just know they had to do this. Also don't think we will have the low for a while yet.
06-30-2011 08:04 AM