06-06-2011 06:34 AM - edited 06-06-2011 03:12 PM
After the close:
USDA rates corn as 94% planted vs. a five-year average of 98%. Also, 79% of the corn has emerged vs. a 90% five-year average. And the corn crop is rated as 6% poor to very poor, 27% fair, and 67% good/excellent.
For soybeans, the USDA Monday rated it 68% planted vs. 83% a year ago. Also, the soybean crop is 44% emerged compared to 63% a year ago.
What do you guys/gals think of the Crop Progress Report numbers?
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 22 cents lower at $7.32. The July soybean contract closed 31 1/4 cents lower at $13.83 1/4. The July wheat futures ended 29 3/4 cents lower at $7.44. The July soybean meal futures settled $7.60 per short ton lower at $360.80. July soyoil closed $0.66 lower at $58.07.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.46 per barrel lower, below $99.00. The dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 45 points.
Favorable crop-weather, except for land along the Missouri River, and unfavorable outside markets kept the grain and soybean markets lower Monday.
The July corn futures are 16 cents lower at $7.38. The July soybean contract is trading 12 3/4 cents lower at $14.01 3/4. The July wheat futures are trading 16 1/2 cents lower at $7.57 1/4. The July soybean meal futures are trading $2.60 per short ton lower at $365.80. July soyoil is $0.26 lower at $58.47.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.68 per barrel lower, below $99.00. The dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 9 points.
Everything remains lower on the CME Group trading floor. A few notes to pass along here. First, a Crop Progress Report will be released at 3pm today. Plus, a USDA Supply/Demand Report comes out this Thursday morning. Add to those items, the Goldman Roll starts tomorrow. A lot for the market to digest this week.
Meanwhile, managed spec funds increased their net long grain futures and options positions by over 81,000 contracts, during the week ended last Tuesday, according to the CFTC, John Roach, Roach Ag mentioned to customers in a daily newsletter. During the past two weeks their net ownership is up over 117,000 contracts, he says.
At the open:
The July corn futures opened 8 1/2 cents lower at $7.45 1/4. Dec. corn is down at $6.74 3/4. The July soybean contract opened 6 1/2 cents lower at $14.08 1/2, while Nov. soy futures trade down at $13.90. The July wheat futures opened 13 1/4 cents lower at $7.60 1/4. The July soybean meal futures opened $0.20 per short ton higher at $368.60. July soyoil opened $0.48 lower at $58.53.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.20 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 28 points.
Due to this week's USDA Supply/Demand Report possiblt raising carryout numbers and dropping demand, profit-taking could hit the market early this week.
Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 4-6 cents lower, and wheat 7-9 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.97 lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading cautiously after five weeks of losses. Investors are watching for the Fed's reaction to all of the latest weak economic reports, as the Beige Book survey gets released Wednesday. That will be followed by jobless claims on Thursday. Whispers of another market crash are being heard in the air, due to the markets 5-week streak of losses.
More in a minute,
06-06-2011 06:51 AM - edited 06-06-2011 06:51 AM
Nothing yet on Crop Progress estimates. But, the chatter will start soon, I'm sure.
First, I think the market will be hit with the idea that Russia may have even more wheat to export than first reported. The Dow Jones Newswire story has the USDA reporting Russia's 2010 wheat crop may have been 3-6 million tons bigger than original estimates. There is still no confirmation whether this is all feed or some food quality.
06-06-2011 07:13 AM
Central Ohio personal numbers, Corn 100%, Soybeans 60% planted. Lot of progress last week, Crops in the ground, but very late planting has everyone worried about a early frost.
06-06-2011 07:34 AM
There you go. It didn't take long for that early frost talk. For right now, it's good to hear you were able to get the crop planted. Were you beginning to worry that you wouldn't get the chance to participate in this extraordinarily high grain and soybean market? And that question goes out to you docharing and everyone else in the eastern Corn Belt and the Dakotas. Not being able to participate, do you think that was the underlying concern this planting season?
06-06-2011 08:05 AM
One trader says, "I heard the USDA Report could show about 93% planted for corn, that might be ok. Wisconsin corn and beans are in in the eastern part of the state. Corn anyway, beans finishing up."
06-06-2011 08:30 AM
Mike, are the traders ready to sell this thing of.......seems like a lot of the funny money is short soya and wheat.......looks like our production problem is solved........Russia apparently has plenty of wheat, even though they have not harvested any of it yet.......93% of the US corn crop is planted and its June 6th........makes sense........
any word on what the trade expects for a soya number this week...........70-75%.............IMO its closer to 65%..........so say 30% of the US soya crop left to plant and its June 6th...........June beans work, don't get me wrong, but they don't work as well as April and May beans...........
traders factoring in the MO river basin flood that is coming???
Thanks, its going to be a hot one here today.........we need it to get the water off the fields from the last two weeks...........
06-06-2011 08:43 AM
We factored in prevent plant corn vs. late and a possible short corn crop. The numbers look better at planting late and a possible claim for yield loss with a high dollar bushel guarantee. The volatile market said stay in the game all year, so we planted corn.
06-06-2011 10:13 AM
92% sounds extreeeemly optimistic for an Ohio corn number. In my neck of the woods we're very close to 100%. But as you move north of I-70 things deteriorate.Heard from contacts near Toledo that are 10% to 50% complete. My neighbor works south of Lima and said there are planters still running strong there this morning. I am more likely to believe a number in the 70's. Unless the reporters are fudging a little to keep from losing a little insurance coverage. As you may know anything planted after June 5th loses 1% per day of the guaranteed coverage. Some say June 5th is 72 hours long!