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03-10-2011 06:47 AM - edited 03-10-2011 01:24 PM
At the close:
May corn futures settled 18 1/4 cents lower at $6.82 3/4. The
soybean contract closed 6 1/2 cents higher at $13.55 1/2. The May
futures settled 18 1/4 cents lower at $7.40 1/2. The May soymeal
futures are $.80 higher per short ton at $353.70. The May soyoil futures ended $0.19 lower at $56.93.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.26 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 170 points.
Beans are remaining higher. A trader that walked by my desk asked if this support is coming from that ethanol legislation being kicked around in D.C. Meanwhile, a report that circulates through the floor a few times a day, shows that funds are sellers of corn and wheat futures contracts today and buyers of soybeans.
May corn futures are 4 cents lower at $6.97. The
soybean contract is 14 cents higher at $13.62. The May
futures are 14 3/4 cents lower at $7.44. The May soymeal
futures are $5.50 higher per short ton at $358.20. The May soyoil futures are $1.20 lower at $57.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.84 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 135 points.
Corn is $3.30 per bushel higher today, vs. a year ago.
Soybeans are $3.02 per bushel higher today, vs. a year ago.
Wheat is $2.63 per bushel higher today, vs. a year ago.
Soybean prices turned higher, now up 8 cents. Corn may be next, one trader says. "A turnaround for soybeans is not surprising. "We saw fresh soybean sales today, I think it's China. We can talk about all we want about China not buying from the U.S. instead South America. The fact is they are buying beans here."
Also helping the turnaround is this idea that traders wanted to sell the market on the open, only to return as a buyer, he says.
"I think corn will eventually be unchanged. Because we already have taken a 'buck' out of the wheat and soybean markets, 50¢ out of the corn market, I think it's a natural to come into today's market and buy it, off a bearish USDA report. So, I think you'll see buyers come into this market yet today."
At the open:
May corn futures are 17 cents lower at $6.83. The
soybean contract is 21 cents lower at $13.25. The May
futures are 17 3/4 cents lower at $7.41. The May soymeal
futures are $3.90 lower per short ton at $349.00. The May soyoil futures are $1.47 lower at $55.65.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 212 points.
For the third day in a row, the grain and soybean markets have opened lower.
USDA reports that 116,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown at 2010/11.
News: Weather experts see the U.S. La Nina weather pattern ending by June.
One trader reacts like this, to this morning's report: "I think the report is in line with trade ideas, but offers no reason to sell. I feel like we might get some recovery today based on the data, but the outside markets are not helping a bit today. So, we will see how many people want to buy."
Yet another trader says the bean number wasn't 'as expected'. A lot of people thought the U.S. soybean carryout number would be either raised or lowered from February. It wasn't raised or lowered. So, how is that 'as expected?"
He sees corn and soybeans trading even lower than the Eary Calls.
Weekly Export Sales:
Corn=776,000 metric tons
No surprises in the USDA Report:
Corn called 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 7-10 lower.
Brazil soybean production estimated at 70.0, up from 68.5 in February.
Argentina soybeans=49.5 million metric tons, no change from Februaryt.
U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels, equal to February, lower than analysts avg. of 141 million.
U.S. corn carryout at 675 million bushels, equal to February and higher than trad estimates of 667.
Early calls: Corn 7-8 cents lower, soybeans 8-10 cents lower and wheat 3-5 cents lower. Remember, with this morning's USDA March Supply/Demand Report released at 7:30am CST, the Early calls can change.
Overnight grain markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$1.76 lower.
Wall Street=Seen lower, following world markets lower. China announced a surprising trade deficit and Spain's credit has been downgraded.
More in a minute,
03-10-2011 07:57 AM
One trader says the market will trade these numbers for about five minutes and then move on to what acreage numbers are expected to be March 31.
Yet another trader says this report is a yawner! He says, "I'm surprised they left corn and beans alone, of course that’s math impossible as we had huge import variences but the USDA does not want to rock the boat with that big acreage report on March 31. So, it's neutral to corn and beans and bearish wheat on the surface. Grains look to the outside for direction."
03-10-2011 09:10 AM
Sorry I must have been standing on my head when I read this:
"The USDA estimates the 2010-11 world wheat carryover at 181.9 million metric tons, vs. a February estimate of 177.8. For 2010-11 corn, the world carryover is set at 123.1 million metric tons vs. a February estimate of 122.5. USDA estimates the 2010-11 world soybean carryover at 58.3 million metric tons, vs. 58.2 last month."
So world carryover for corn is actually up so that must be bearish?
03-10-2011 09:44 AM
Most of the report was perceived as bearish, U.S. and world numbers. Check this out though, the soybean market is now just 2 cents lower and headed for positive territory already. Remember, it's not how the market opens, but how we close.
03-10-2011 09:52 AM
I am guessing that the Argentina corn crop recovered nicely. I was expecting a 2 mmt drop, but I definitely was wrong. I am long 2 corn as of this morning, so I hope it doesn't lock limit down by the end of the day.
03-10-2011 12:11 PM
I'm probably not qualified to say, but I wouldn't get nervous about this lower trend. Today, it seems all commodities have felt a pain threshold. It's interesting to note that even a bearish report can't keep the soybean market down. That shows the underlying support for this market.