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03-17-2011 05:33 AM - edited 03-17-2011 02:07 PM
At the close:
May corn futures settled up the daily 30 cent limit at $6.46 1/2. The
soybean contract settled 48 1/4 cents higher at $13.43 1/2. The May
futures closed 48 1/4 cents higher at $7.10 1/4. The May soymeal
futures finished $14.10 higher per short ton at $358.60. The May soyoil futures ended $1.56 higher at $54.52.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.52 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 148 points.
China Buys Corn: My source from the trading floor says China has issued import licenses for corn. It's believed China has booked 2.0 million metric tons of U.S. corn for July-August delivery.
In an attempt to get multiple opinions on this talk of China buying U.S. corn, I have asked a few more trade contacts. I'm getting these responses:
One floor trader says, "Sometimes when the calculation works it elicits a rumor...but have not heard anything... noticed Gulf corn basis just steady. So, it does not suggest anything was booked out of the ordinary..but I may be the last to know. If it is true it's a big deal."
Yet another analyst says, "I have not heard from the news services. I have given the reasons why China would enter for corn buys in June and July period. If they actually did buy now for July delivery, it would make sense, due to the current price drop."
May corn futures are locked 'limit' up the 30 cent daily maximum at $6.46 1/2. The
soybean contract is 58 cents higher at $13.45. The May
futures are 50 cents higher at $7.12 1/2. The May soymeal
futures are $16.00 higher per short ton at $360.50. The May soyoil futures are $2.22 higher at $55.18.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.71 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 141 points.
The outside markets are bullish for grain and soybeans. The Dow is rebounding on lower jobless claims report. Corn remains locked 'limit' up on demand.
One analyst says, "Wheat and beans made new yearly lows with corn almost new lows this week, after fear of lost grain sales to Japan entered. But, today brought hope that the nuclear power plant total meltdown might be avoided, as water cooling attempts may buy the time to get a power line in to re-start the water pumps. This would end the worst case scenario and funds re-entered long. This risk into the weekend of a meltdown sets up grains for a limit down move. It's day to day. Note, the market had initially ignored all the bullish news this week that is simmering under the surface, like the damage to corn and bean crops in Brazil and our winter wheat breaking dormancy with a dry and warm forecast for 11 to 15 days out.
Happy St. Patrick's Day my lucky friends!
calls: Corn 15-17 cents lower, soybeans 15-17 cents higher and wheat 5-7
cents higher. Remember, the Weekly Export Sales Report will be released, today, at 7:30am CST. That could change these Early calls.
Overnight grain markets=Trading sharply mixed.
Crude Oil=$1.46 higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening volatile as investors await every new headline and comment about Japan's nuclear crisis. It's believed by traders that Japan's nuclear crisis is worse than the Three Mile Island nuke event but better than Chernobyl. This morning, a Dow Jones Newswire headline reads: "Japan's Upper House Proposes Shutting Down Markets". Plus, an effort to cool the rods in some of the nuclear reactors has been called off, due to high radiation levels. It's headlines like these that will not help today's trade. The situation is very very tenuous. Also today, the market will get numerous U.S. economic numbers including the Weekly Jobless Claims Report. But, make no mistake, the stock market will be on pins and needles all day.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific is lower, while Europe stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
03-17-2011 07:55 AM
Marketeye may have been in a rush to get out the door to score a green beer or two and maybe jump in the green river there in Chicago this morning -- looks like you're right -- sounds like early call for corn is 12-15 higher today. Luck o' the Irish all around today, maybe?!
Here's a little from this morning's Export Sales Report:
- Wheat sales up 15% from last week
- Corn sales up just slightly from last week
- Soybean sales down 64% from last week
- Cotton sales 55,400 bales lower than a week ago.
03-17-2011 11:26 AM - edited 03-17-2011 11:26 AM
Sorry guys. I really screwed up that corn call. I read the overnights wrong. Then strong export sales were reported, along with some 100,000-plus metric tons of fresh sales of corn to an unknown. So, I really got burnt. My fault. Thanks Jeff for having my back.
03-17-2011 11:29 AM
Yes, the Brazilian bean harvest is that bad. We'll have a full report on this tomorrow. But, my Brazilian contacts tell me that excessive rains in the southern state of Parna is delaying harvest and delivery of contracted crops. The quality of the soybeans may not be that bad, but the rains have backed up the pipeline (barges wait at the ports, as trucks wait along the road, as combines wait on the edge of a field, as rain keeps falling).
03-17-2011 12:49 PM - edited 03-17-2011 01:26 PM
You read right, perhaps. I did some digging and found out China did buy U.S. corn. See the details at the top of this thread. Thanks for dropping that note.