05-12-2011 06:43 AM - edited 05-12-2011 01:58 PM
VIDEO: Marketeye floor report on where this corn market goes now.
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 3 1/4 cents higher at $6.80 1/2. The July soybean contract ended 11 cents higher at $13.42 3/4. The July wheat futures closed 23 1/2 cents lower at $7.35 1/2. The July soybean meal futures settled $5.70 per short ton higher at $353.30. The July soyoil futures closed $0.16 higher at $56.46.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.87 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 61 points.
Whether the rumors of China buying 1-2.0 million metric tons of U.S. corn are right or not, the traders ran the market up and then sold it on the close. At one point, the corn market was up 13 cents. We'll find out tomorrow if the China talk is true or if the market discounts the rumors.
July corn is up 13 cents higher at 6.90 1/4.
Corn is rallying off of rumors that China bought U.S. corn Thursday. One floor trader says, "Rumors that China is buying U.S. corn and that Japanese buyers are in the market buying expiring May corn futures. So, two fronts from Asian markets are hitting the corn market. This higher price movement will carry into tomorrow, only if we can confirm that China actually bought U.S. corn."
Yet another trader says, "Margins work if you can bring in duty-free. But the margins don't work given current prices, if you rally another 30 cents. The rumor is 1mmt of old-crop. JCI suggests cash corn there is getting tight. So, it seems the rumor is probable. I would expect to see it off the Pacific Northwest, if it trades."
Corn has moved higher. It's now up 5 cents.
The July corn futures are 1 1/4 cents lower at $6.76. The July soybean contract is 4 cents lower at $13.27 3/4. The July wheat futures are 23 cents lower at $7.36. The July soybean meal futures are $0.30 per short ton higher at $347.90. The July soyoil futures are $0.32 lower at $55.98.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.07 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 9 points.
The overall commodity sell-off is weakening today, helping the grains. Also, one analyst says there is a rumor that China is interested in buying corn. We know the Chinese are talking with Argentina about buying large amounts of that country's corn, but now the rumors are that China wants U.S. corn.
The analyst says, "Rumors around of Chinese interest for corn. I have now heard it twice this week, so there must be something to it. Also, the outside markets are either stable or going the other way from yesterday, which is helping grains as well. Demand was better in the report this week but still pretty bad. I am hearing of firm cash markets everywhere in the Midwest and also at the Gulf. Wheat lower on some rains in San Antonio, I guess. Nothing else that I can see, but cotton is down too, so I think maybe the rains in Texas are doing it."
At the open:
The July corn futures opened 10 cents lower at $6.67. The July soybean contract opened 12 cents lower at $13.20. The July wheat futures opened 19 cents lower at $7.40. The July soybean meal futures opened $3.20 per short ton lower at $344.50. The July soyoil futures are $0.33 lower at $55.97.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.83 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 49 points.
A South Korea operation bought 127,000 metric tons of corn from Cargill for August delivery, according to the Dow Jones Newswire Thursday. Another South Korea buyer stepped in Thursday and purchased 142,000 metric tons of corn. Total South Korean corn purchases Thursday are 296,000 mt. Wow!
USDA Weekly Export Sales were mainly within trade expectations for today’s reports. Corn and wheat may be seen as neutral to friendly. But, soybean sales are still weak.
Corn=457,500 metric tons vs. trade expectations of 250 to 450,000.
Soybeans =62,300 metric tons vs. expectations of 50 to 150,000 mt old, and 50 to 150,000 mt new crop.
Wheat=550,500 metric tons vs. expectations of 200 to 400,000 mt old crop, and 150 to 300,000 mt new crop.
Soymeal=61,000 metric tons.
Early calls: Corn 8-10 cents lower, soybeans 9-11 cents lower, and wheat 10-12 cents lower. Don't forget that today's expanded limit for corn is 45¢, due to the limit close yesterday.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$2.40 lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower as the sharp sell-off in commodities is pulling the stocks down. One analyst sees the commodity pullback is the beginning of a 10%-drop in stocks in the next few months. A lack of oil demand and slack in U.S. economic growth are major concerns.
Special: Now a technical look at the corn market. One trader has looked at the charts and here is his interpretation of how they look. He says, "The market favors lower prices into the end of the week but would be called into question if we can’t hold the $6.88-$6.89 area.
712.2 e-corn high
707.2 Gap close
698 Moving average (34)
688-89 Cut through trend line; pivot
686.2 Weekly close
680.4 Weekly low
677.2 Low; close
669.4 Gap close
653.6 Secondary gap close
652.6 1.000 lap extension
648.6 Weekly pivot
643 Weekly pivot
636 1.618 lap extension
More in a minute,
05-12-2011 06:59 AM
I'm told that Iowa's corn emergence rate is being eyed by the market. In fact, it's the emergence of any corn that should be up by Sunday. The market may have fallen asleep at the wheel discounting the still slow progress of Indiana, the Dakota states, and Ohio. All fringe states (well, not Indiana), but production that is very much needed if the U.S. is to reach the 92.2 million corn acres. The big push in planting last week in Iowa has the market wearing rose-colored glasses, some traders say.
It rained cats and dogs in Chicago last night. And that storm went straight to Indiana. This morning, it's damp, cloudy, and foggy. So, unless the country used the past few hot days to plant the rest of the corn crop, the market is still in for a rude awakening on the possibility of less corn acres this year.
05-12-2011 07:13 AM
when you pool the report in a table for finishing out this year and for next year; stocks to use and carryout basically stays flat or goes lower on the US and world stage...........and there were a lot of assumptions in that table.........like a 13.5B corn crop..........wheat production is probably overstated and maybe grossly overstated..........and even with these assumptions we do not build in any cushion............what if these assumptions do not pan out???????
I posted my acres chart here several months ago now............I still think we will struggle to get 166 combined corn and soya number...........I also think that generally speaking there will be little switching of acres due to insurance, PP, inputs, sales, etc.........thus lose in acres due to flooding or drought will just lower total acreage number...........we may struggle to get to 166 thus putting corn acreage in the 90M range and soya 74-75M..............plug those numbers into the USDA's report yesterday and tell me whats bearish about that..........
05-12-2011 07:18 AM
Mike here's a pic of a seedling of corn planted on may 4th. Should be able to row it by Sun.
Here's another not the best quality.
Corn planted the last week of april still isn't up. Waiting was a good thing this year.
05-12-2011 07:31 AM
Thanks for posting the pictures. However, the first pictures a bit fuzzy. Thanks for using that 'great' background with the SF magazine. Are you saying the seedling is not at the point that it should be? It looks like it's headed in the right direction.
05-12-2011 07:35 AM
Well, I can save traders the wait. Corn is on the row that was planted May 2-5 in Iowa. That 95 degree day and others in the 80's sent the corn growing at record pace. By Sunday IA will have alot of corn above ground. Same note as JR said. The corn planted early May is up within a few days of corn planted early April....not quite the same stands though. 8 to 10 day forecast is for very wet, I was hoping this was the year I would not have to replant bottoms...something that hasn't happen on this farm since 2004.
Farmers didn't keep that high grain price in their pockets, they upgraded machinery.
05-12-2011 07:58 AM
Soory for the confusion I think this corn seedling is right on the money. IT was planted on may 4th and dug up last night the 11th at 6:30 pm. The seed was nearly ready to poke thru the ground I never remeber a year when the corn could emerge so quicly! The early stuff tho is gonna be hurt by the late cold snap. All in all it is in a very good spot and with the rain today and the still warm temps it bodes well for corn development.
BTW I drove up to estherville yesterday lots of beans were being planted and it looked like all the corn ground was planted. It is trully amazing how fast we got the crop planted.
05-12-2011 10:32 AM
I dunno JR....I've been caught by corn that's spiking through in 6 days a lot of times...sometimes forcing me to change my burn down plan..(Every spray Gramoxone over inch tall corn?..It works..the growing point is still below the ground...Just don't try that with glyphosate on conventional hybrids..)
We got caught by one of those static thunderstorms last night. Had just made it to the field yesterday evening to try and plant some corn..and the fertilizer pump wasn't working on the planter. Worked on it till 1:30AM ..until the lightning show convinced me I wouldn't be planting today anyways. Went to bed..and woke up at 4:15 to a heck of a thunderstorm...lightning, thunder..and marble sized hail. Got 1.5 inches...I watched it on the radar, the darn thing didn't move out for almost 2 hours. Areas 3 miles south of me hardly got anything...and Western Ohio is still making dust today.
More rain coming out of Indiana today....will see if I can get a yard mowed, parts for the fertilizer pump should be here tomorrow.