05-02-2011 07:00 AM - edited 05-02-2011 02:08 PM
At the close:
July corn futures settled 22 cents lower at $7.34 1/2. The July
soybean contract closed 1 cent lower at $13.93. The July
futures settled 9 1/2 cents lower at $7.91 3/4. The July soybean meal
futures closed $1.30 per short ton lower at $362.30. The July soyoil futures ended $0.02 higher at $58.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.49 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 8 points.
July corn futures 12 1/2 cents lower at $7.44. The July
soybean contract is 7 cents lower at $13.87. The July
futures are 5 cents lower at $7.96 1/4. The July soybean meal
futures are $3.30 per short ton lower at $360.30. The July soyoil futures are
$0.02 higher at $58.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.34 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 27 points.
One analyst says, "It's a risk-off day for the funds, and Asia/EU investors are on holiday. So, I caution against reading too much into today's action," Feltes says. "The market has not addressed cool weather in May, which will further delay development. We could see people buy the breaks."
Corn and soybeans remain lower, wheat 10 cents higher Monday.
One analyst says that history shows that if the U.S. corn crop is not 50% planted by May 10, a trendline yield is hard to accomplish, not impossible but difficult to reach. This afternoon, the average estimate for the USDA Crop Progress Report has corn 14-17% planted. Now, with rain over the weekend in the eastern Corn Belt and three more storm events in the 10-day weather forecasts, what do you think? Will this corn crop be 50% in the next eight days?
--Delivery receipts for expiring May futures contracts are light, and that is bullish.
--Weather premium is being built back into the markets, later this week.
--More talk of soybean acres, that's bearish new-crop contracts.
--China may re-enter the bean market this month.
--Looking for a driver of this market mobile, it's weather.
At the open:
July corn futures opened 5 1/2 cents lower at $7.51 1/4. The July
soybean contract opened 2 1/4 cents lower at $13.91 3/4. The July
futures opened 8 cents higher at $8.09 1/4. The July soybean meal
futures opened $1.20 per short ton lower at $362.40. The July soyoil futures opened
$0.18 lower at $58.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.49 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 50 points.
FWIW: Mid-May is an important seasonal time to be making cash sales and putting on new crop hedges, Al Kluis, market trader and analyst, says to his newsletter customers today.
How is your risk mangement plan coming along this year? Do you usually sell this time of the year, before you climb into the tractor to plant?
Note: A Louisiana crop consultant offers up the latest on that corn crop's early growing season. He says, "We were off to a great start on corn this year, but misapplication of fertilizers and erratic stands will take the top off of what could have been a record-setting year. And, the irony is that many farmers will never notice these yield-reducing problems even though it is costing them 20 – 40 bu/ac or more."
calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents lower and wheat 1-2
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$1.77 lower.
trading higher following the news that Osama Bin Laden was killed. This news is expected to cause investors to get out of their long positions fearing a stronger dollar and weaker commodity prices, traders say.
Markets=Asoa/Pacific is mixed, Europe stocks higher.
More in a minute,
05-02-2011 07:36 AM
Field work started in earnest here yesterday. We have been cold in the morning. I think we get going pretty hard here tomorrow,maybe wensday. dang cows get in the way of farming! When I get going of course there will be picks. All I have is an itty bitty 12 row planter so Ihope no one laughs at my little planter!
05-02-2011 07:45 AM - edited 05-02-2011 07:46 AM
It takes all shapes and sizes and colors to get the crop in, don't worry. It does look like there is a break in the wet weather. Yield loss questions will set in for the marketwatchers, from here on out. The weather outlook, midweek, should be interesting. I'm told that once the seed is in the ground, barring unusual cold snaps, most agronomists are not concerned about cold temps. Meanwhile, it's interesting, this is one of the few times of the year you'll hear traders try to understand the agronomics of farming. For instance, the other day, I shared with a floor trader about the fact that the crop insurance soybean planting date had passed. He said, "Oh, the farmer has a certain date he has to wait for in order to plant?" I was a little shocked. I thought that was well known. But, it's those details that some of the traders try to figure out, at this time of the year.
05-02-2011 10:44 AM
Central Ohio forecast rain the next 8 of 10 days. We use May 10 as our last day for best corn yields also. I know Ohio only grows about 1/2 the corn Indiana puts out, and Illinois grows double of that. Ohio won't be 25 % planted by May 10th., not sure the market cares what Ohio does. I am putting the planter back in the barn.