05-20-2011 07:12 AM - edited 05-20-2011 01:29 PM
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 11 1/4 cents higher at $7.59 1/2. The July soybean contract closed 3/4 of a cent higher at $13.80 1/4. The July wheat futures ended 5 1/2 cents lower at $8.06. The July soybean meal futures settled $8.00 per short ton lower at $360.60. July soyoil closed $0.38 higher at $57.46.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.09 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 45 points.
On today's market, one analyst is saying, "It is partly weather, but it is a lot of strong cash markets here in the Midwest. I have not seen much change at the Gulf, so it is domestic demand running this thing higher. I have heard that the ethanol crowd has been buying but I have absolutely no confirmation that they are the ones. But someone wants corn especially and also some beans, and they just are not there right now. Only river basis is weak and this is due to the flooding. Otherwise lots of strong basis and little offer combined with more rains for the weekend."
The July corn futures are 9 3/4 cents higher at $7.58. The July soybean contract is 7 3/4 cents higher at $13.87 1/4. The July wheat futures are 7 3/4 cents lower at $8.04 1/4. The July soybean meal futures are $2.00 per short ton higher at $363.40. July soyoil is $0.38 higher at $57.84.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.92 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 93 points.
Corn turns higher off of continued wet weather in the Midwest. Wheat strengthens and soybeans remain lower.
--The trade expects next week's Crop Progress Report to show corn 80% planted vs. an 87% five-year average. Soybeans are expected to be 40% planted vs. 51% average.
--There is news Friday that Argentina is getting closer to corn deals with China.
--The drought that has devastated Texas and Oklahoma has spread into Kansas, climatologists say.
At the open:
The July corn futures opened 4 1/4 cents lower at $7.44. The July soybean contract opened 9 1/4 cents lower at $13.70. The July wheat futures opened 12 1/2 cents lower at $7.99. The July soybean meal futures opened $1.60 per short ton lower at $359.80. July soyoil opened $0.15 lower at $57.32.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.05 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 78 points.
One corn trader says, "Two way trade today. I think we rallied pretty good this week off of those Gaps we filled a Dollar lower just last week. So, although we are poised for higher prices, we may be sideways today."
He adds, "Overnight range was $7.46 1/2-$7.58 1/4. I want to see where we open. Minor bias that the market can trade lower; but would have to get thru the $7.42 1/2 low to confirm. Holding below $7.47 1/2-$7.78 1/4 on the open would be a minor bearish signal early. If we get thru the low, support in the $7.36 3/4-37 3/4 area and 7.31 1/4. On upside, early resistance at 7.52 1/4-53 1/2; could firm a bit if we get thru there."
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents lower, and wheat 12-14 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.25 higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower as the dollar and crude oil rises.
More in a minute,
05-20-2011 10:30 AM
Hey Mike....... Raining here this morning in North Centeral Iowa. Gives me a chance to share a couple of thoughts. ( not that they will be coherent).
This past week I have talked to friends in Mi, Ohio, Indiana, and PA. All of them are areas that are hard up to get the rest of this crop planted. all of them are good farmers and just can't get it done. PP is an option for some others who need the feed are gonna plant corn no matter what.
My PA. friend is hearing of basis on corn at $1.20 at the local feed mill! Every one of them comments how the hay is gonna be rank before they can get it up for cow feed. That just increases the need for supplemental protien.
We have all been talking numbers on planted acres.
Here's the thoughts we collectivley came up with.
First corn acres will certainly come in 5 million under the USDA expectations. That is 87 million planted. could be 80 millin harvested? One friend says he wouldn't be surprised at 10 million abandoned acres! That is 82 million planted!
Now we all think that beans are the sleeper! Most analysts think we will switch acres from corn to beans. Several of these guys said no way they are gonna take the PP and no more beans. they also said that beans planted after the PP datre will yield 15% less than the beans planted before the PP corn date. SO even if we have those 76 million acres of beans they will not yield the big crop that every one is hoping for.
One of the guys in Ohio says that beans will also be a no go for him as he is 3 weeks from getting into the field and may just say screw it altogether. So lets say we have 13 millin abandoned acres between beans and corn this year. No way the grain price is high enough right now to get that thru the year.
ANybody have any wild scenarios that could best that?
Oh and before somebody says what about your dollar montra? The dollar is girating all over the place and that shows that even in the face of a strong dollar we may have a weather market that trumps everything! Oh yea milk for july shot up 61 cents for a short time! There is no excess anywhere!
05-20-2011 11:27 AM
JR I'd like to see where you came up with your 5 mill fewer corn acres by state. Ohio for instance is projected to plant about 3.5 mil corn acres. Do you project half or more of that to not be planted? Barring pouring rains the first week of June I would expect less than 30% to go unplanted. Now if the rains hit again after Memorial Day you could see the number rise considerably.
05-20-2011 12:04 PM
I was contemplating that figure a few nights ago SW..and what I came up with was...say 30% of Ohio isn't planted (3.7 million expected times 30% is 1,110,000) Then I was looking at North Dakota...and they expected an additional 2-300,000 acres planted up there over last year..and they were only at 40% planted. So I figured they're down about 500,000-750,000 acres. Then I wondered how many acres in Cairo, Ill. that got drowned..and I doubt that the 130,000 acres there will get re-planted...and now we're flooding all those acres in Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Probably a million plus there. It adds up pretty quickly. I'm not sure I can back the 5 million prevented planted..but boy, it seems pretty easy to come up with 3 million......
05-20-2011 01:10 PM
There you go Pup! now take a bout 500,000 for Indiana and Mi. and you are 4 million. Then go down to Kansas and Texas and take about a milllion abandoned and wala! 5 million is pretty easy to guess at right now. Yea I know in 3 days it all may different but I do not think so!
05-20-2011 01:17 PM
OH and IN by my info is @ 5% or less planted acres. 70% abandonded is 3-3.5 mil more than likely 2-2.5 mil or less, flooded 1+mil at MAX that is flooded, figures I saw max flooded acres reduces carryout by 200 mil, unplanted acres in OH/IN would take it down to desparate carryout levels(sub 500mil). But...I think planters roll all the way until Jun 5th if dry for corn in IN OH. And also think Corn acres might be added in WCB. Plenty of good weather to get the crop in west, and now rain in KS OK TX. Wheat is gone anyway. Although it might/will go to Milo. bottom line.....who knows. Oh yea, sugar from SA back on the market, ethanol cheap again this summer, no ethanol export to EU from US, and lately we have even been exporting ethanol to Brazil. That will end ....now. So that will lower US Ethanol demand which will raise carryout levels.....if I keep talking I will figure it out....oh yea, cattle heard replacemnts are low and takes 1-2 years to bring them back to past head counts, so feed demand will be lower next year too. But you can always eat more chicken. Only takesa couple months to get flocks higher....what else?????
05-20-2011 05:45 PM
Pupdaddy, Woodville got 3 1/2" Wed. morning. Some in that area got planted last Friday. Be interesting to see how it turns out. I saw some pretty yellow looking corn on Rt. 53 by that research station yesterday. A guy at Bucyrus said he's gotten over 4" since Sunday down there. Another guy from Plain City said they haven't done a thing. I mowed grass today. Drove the lawn mower out in the field to make a u-turn and water squeezed up from the lawn mower tires. Still haven't let cattle out in the pasture either. Wife says to take the PP and buy a tractor to make me feel better. HaHa
05-21-2011 11:34 AM
Pup on the million flooded acres I've read that about 1/3 is corn, 1/3 beans, and the rest is divided up into cotton, milo, veggies, etc. That will affect your formula and you should add back in 660,000 to the corn acre loss. (I know you can't believe everything you read so we won't know for sure how much corn is lost to flooding for some time.)
I just came in for a quick lunch break. Been mudding in corn all morning already had the biggest mud plug in one row I've ever seen. Not ideal conditions but not much alternative with rain coming for 15 tomorrows.
05-21-2011 06:24 PM
87 Million corn acres are absurd. The June numbers will report no less than 90 Million acres. If the trade thought we'd be under 90 million acres we would easily be at 8:00 dollar corn for December. I predict we'll be somewhere in that 90.5 to 91 million acres. J.R. if you think we'll be at 87 million acres I hope you have locked in your inputs .