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05-23-2011 06:32 AM - edited 05-23-2011 03:18 PM
Only 79% of the U.S. corn crop is planted, according to the USDA. That's not even 80%, what many in the trade thought. And, it's below the five-year average of 87%. On emergence, only 45% of the corn is up vs. a 59% five-year average.
How will the market react to this? What say you?
05/22 05/15 2010 Avg 05/22 05/15 2010 Avg
Colo 86 75 89 84 20 6 32 38
Ill 90 69 97 85 56 24 86 66
Ind 49 29 88 76 20 4 78 54
Iowa 98 92 98 94 74 33 81 67
Kans 93 84 91 92 62 43 60 63
Ky 62 45 96 87 38 19 88 74
Mich 57 41 84 82 22 3 60 47
Minn 81 47 98 93 23 1 74 60
Mo 88 79 86 82 69 50 71 63
Nebr 94 84 95 95 55 21 56 61
NC 99 98 100 100 96 90 99 97
ND 49 14 79 77 7 0 37 33
Ohio 11 7 87 80 2 1 72 58
Pa 40 34 79 74 17 1 40 43
SD 73 44 74 78 18 2 32 32
Tenn 87 67 94 94 63 43 88 86
Tex 97 93 96 97 84 70 80 84
Wis 63 35 87 82 14 0 48 40
avg 79 63 92 87 45 21 69 59
At the close:
The July corn futures closed 5 1/2 cents lower at $7.54. The July soybean contract settled 6 1/2 cents lower at $13.73 3/4. The July wheat futures closed 3 1/2 cents lower at $8.03. The July soybean meal futures settled $1.80 per short ton lower at $358.80. July soyoil ended $0.24 lower at $57.22.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.54 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 111 points.
U.S. inspectors examined 4.6 million bushels of U.S. corn for shipment to China on May 19, according to the Dow Jones Newswire.
That's even more than the trade expected. I wonder if this is already built-in on this recent corn rally?
Corn is up 4 cents, soybeans are up 3/4 of a cent, and wheat is 2 cents higher.
One broker/analyst says, "It does seem slow today. I have been 1 lotting the world to death today.
We went higher overnight on the weather, backed off on Dollar strength and also crude oil weakness, but came back at mid session today on the weather I think. Planting is delayed but I think it is getting done one way or another. For me it has been small both sides, so hard to read. We weill see the end of the day, but the bounce back was impressive and points out how wet we are."
The July corn futures are 3/4 of a cent lower at $7.58 3/4. The July soybean contract is 3 cents lower at $13.77 1/4. The July wheat futures are 12 3/4 cents lower at $7.93 3/4. The July soybean meal futures are $0.60 per short ton lower at $360.00. July soyoil is $0.18 lower at $57.28.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.10 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 162 points.
With crude oil falling 3%, and the dollar rising, the commodities are under pressure Monday, analysts say.
At the open:
The July corn futures opened 1 1/2 cents higher at $7.61 1/4. The July soybean contract opened 3 cents lower at $13.75 1/4. The July wheat futures opened 8 1/2 cents lower at $7.98. The July soybean meal futures opened $0.90 per short ton lower at $359.80. July soyoil opened $0.26 lower at $57.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.76 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 133 points.
Video: Prevented planting details provided by Agriculture.com Business Editor Dan Looker. Watch video by clicking here.
Meanwhile, take a look at the corn production changes between 2010-11 on this map. As you look at the map, it reads that Iowa is expecte to raise 332 million bushels more this year vs. 2010. Based on this data and the rains the Midwest has had, what is your estimate for this afternoon's Crop Progress Report? I'm hearing 80%-plus.
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 4-6 cents lower, and wheat 6-8 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$2.42 lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower as European debt worries take grip. Plus, a stronger dollar and lower crude oil prices drop the stocks outlook. China stocks plunge due to signs of a slowing economy.
Wow, what a storm that ripped through eastern Iowa Sunday. On a return trip from Des Moines to Chicago, I traveled right through the torrential downpours, high winds, and lightning. A bad day to be traveling. I ask that you do pray for those folks in Joplin, Missouri, where 89 people died from a tornado. I kept looking at the fields that had streams of water rushing off of them. It was way too much in a short period of time. The drying that will be needed is enormous. I saw a lot of planted fields, but for any that weren't, I can't imagine how long it might take to be able to get in those. So, I had my wife fire up the laptop to pull up the overnight markets. Sure enough, the markets were up 11 cents, around 8pm. I know they ended up lower, but with bad weather from Missouri to Minneapolis the market has to be taken note.
More in a minute,
05-23-2011 08:55 AM
I hear tractors were moving in Mich. and Indiana yesterday. That 80% isn't out of line. But that means 20% to go which is about 18.5 million to get planted. That is a big number still! We shall see what the comedians at USDA have to say.
Oh looky dollar is up almost a full point.
The worse the piigs get the better we are by default.
Gonna be a rough week.
05-23-2011 11:36 AM
Thanks for all you do. I read your comments every day.
I'm not sure about the other states, but I'm certain Ohio's projection is too high. We received another 1.5" last night. I'm guessing that Ohio may only have 45%-60% of the corn planted by June 5th. Many farmers here are going to be making decisions as to take prevented planting or switch to beans. I've even heard of some farmers who intend to still plant corn but have changed to non-GMO hybrids and will cut way back on Nitrogen. (basically just farming for the insurance). The yields will clearly not be good if this happens.
I don't like to be an alarmist, but the conditions here are really bad. Each evening before supper one of my four children will say a prayer asking for the rain to stop... but then another one chimes in that we would like for the rain to start again in July (makes me laugh every time). I feel kinda selfish when I think about those affected by the floods down river or those affected by the recent storms.
Anyway, it is difficult to guess about Ohio's production, but don't be surprised to see it drop 100-200 million bushels.
05-23-2011 12:08 PM
Today's planting progress for Ohio will show under 40% planted. That's nearly 2-million acres left to plant. Parts of Indiana are still lagging as well especially eastern IN north of 70.
With todays outside forces (oil & dollar) so against corn if we end up for the day that should tell us the markets are very very nervous.
05-23-2011 12:13 PM
Your prayer story is funny. Good to hear that the family still gathers at the dinner table. And the family that prays together stays together, right? Thanks for checking in daily. You may be right that Ohio will be cut back quite a bit. I work with a guy that has a friend in Ohio, outside of Columbus, I believe. Anyway, that farmer is struggling to get his crop in.
I think it will take a 'Black swan'-like event to send these markets to a lower level. There just seems to be too much uncertainty for the market to digest. If you've been following my comments daily, you know what I'm talking about when I say the elevator may be getting ready to go from 'the lobby' to the 10th floor.
05-23-2011 12:48 PM
I know we are all excited about these high prices. One has to start thinking about the livestock/poultry industry and how long they can hold on at these prices. As a farmer both crops and animals i would sure hate to see those guys start folding up because they can't aford to feed anymore.
05-23-2011 12:52 PM
Do you think the feed alternatives will help keep the pain down? I'm referring to DDGs, corn stover, well moisturized pasture, (not in KS, OK, TX), but in many other places.
05-23-2011 01:05 PM
Mike, where I am from there are alot of turkey, egg producers. They are all getting really nervous. They are making ends meet right now but very nervous into the fall/winter if these prices hold up. I know the hog guys are in the same boat.
05-23-2011 02:05 PM
We have already witnessed a considerable spike in retail beef prices. When consumers want chicken and turkey bad enough, how much will they pay for it before they become vegans? Is $6.00 a pound enough to cause them to eat vegtables? (That is if enough vegetables got planted in the spring monsoons.)