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09-17-2010 06:38 AM - edited 09-17-2010 02:20 PM
At the close:
The Dec corn futures settled 17 1/4 cents higher at $5.13 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract settled 32 3/4 cents higher at $10.69. The Dec. wheat futures closed 20 cents higher at $7.39 1 /4. The Dec. soyoil futures settled 55 points higher at $42.30. The Dec. soymeal futures ended $12.25 higher at $308.50 per short ton.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.80 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 25 points.
We'll have more on this later. But, here's a snapshot of what the weather gurus are saying about the world crop-weather issues:
--Only 50% of the major former Soviet Union growing areas will have a good rain in the next week or two.
--China's frost talk is much to do of nothing.
--Western Australia is dry as a bone, rest of the country is ok.
-Brazil, no rain seen until October, lated planted beans.
Arg. is ok.
--Canada's frost won't drop into the U.S.
Next week: Rain is seen delaying U.S. harvest.
The Dec corn futures are 14 cents higher at $5.10. The Nov. soybean contract is 26 1/4 cents higher at $10.62 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures are 12 1/4 cents higher at $7.31 1 /2. The Dec. soyoil futures are 39 points higher at $42.15. The Dec. soymeal futures are $9.20 higher at $305.50 per short ton.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.58 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 15 points
Weather fears are playing a part in this rally, one analyst says. But, it's more about the fund-buying. "Well. Everyone wants to attach something marginally related to the move to sound smart. But, the reality is, this is the eighth consecutive week where we have traded higher on Friday. And this Friday, like last week, is anticipating poor harvest yield results over the weekend. This is giving us the eighth consecutive higher Sunday night and Monday trade. Funds have developed this weekly pattern and you can expect the same next week. But, also expect some month-end profit-taking with a dip in prices after Monday."
One analyst says, "Pretty impressive markets today. Breakouts on the charts and everything causing spec and fund buying. No real news, just the same weather issues we have been hearing about. A frost in Canada likely to stop growth up there but I would think it should not cause much if any damage. Still, this is a market where people are scared to be short so anything that creates production doubt is just feeding the bull.
Also talk of frost in the forecast for China, plus the yield doubts for corn here, and weather issues in Argentina, Australia, and Russia supporting things. Pretty impressive as I said."
Though frost hit western Canada overnight, and more is coming, farmers say it's helping shutdown the harvest-ready crops. So, let's review what the market has to consider:
U.S harvest yields, Canadian frost, China rains & cold temps, Brazil's drought, Russia and EU's drought, world grain export limits, increasing world livestock demand, and increasing world consumption. What else? Hmmmmm..... I smell higher markets here.
At the open:
The Dec corn futures are 10 1/2 cents higher at $5.06 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract opened 15 1/4 cents higher at $10.52. The Dec. wheat futures opened 11 3/4 cents higher at $7.31. The Dec. soyoil futures opened 40 points higher at $42.15. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $4.70 higher at $301.00 per short ton.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.58 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 15 points.
Up, up and away!!!!
Matt Pierce, a floor trader and analyst for Pitguru.com, says weather in China was the catalyst for sharply higher overnight grain prices and the higher pit open. "With excessive rains (2.00" seen in Jilin) with temps only reaching into the low 40's, this a problem for China. The weekend forecast calls for temps in to the low 30's with possible high 20's in the northern reaches of the Mongolian plains. This is a major problem for China and goes against everything they have been saying concerning production increases in both beans and corn. China is short (naturally) and wants to project an idea of stable supply...this is not justified following their problems with weather this year early with planting, drought during development and now an early frost."
Pierce adds, "Continued problems occur with MN, ND and into the S. Canadian prairies. Talk of frost this weekend has bulls out and running with the domestic story adding to the Chinese issue. Crops that were planted 2-3 weeks late in ND and S. Manitoba are in serious jeopardy of frost damage that would only add to the necessity of a monster bean crop in the central US to cover both Canadian Rapeseed reduction as well as expected EU rapeseed reduction."
Early calls: Corn 8-10 cents higher, soybeans up 12-13 cents wheat up 10-12 cents. Europe stocks rallied overnight, led by retail and resource-minded stocks. Gold hit a new high at $1,282.75 per troy ounce, boosting the resources sector. Silver has hit its highest level since 1980. As a result, there is a lot of money pouring into commodities.
Overnight grain=Trading sharply higher.
Crude oil=Trading $0.51 per barrel higher.
Wall Street= Seen opening higher ahead of consumer sentiment data.
Notice: New crop yields posted Thursday afternoon. See them in Crop Talk by clicking here.
More in a minute,
09-17-2010 07:01 AM
Mike, I was surprised to see the markets up overnight. A few are running here in southwest Iowa, but most will start next week. After all the corn drying last year people are willing to let mother nature work a couple more days. Also beans turning fast and will be ready soon. We have some 2.9 mat. that look to be near ready and may go this weekend (especially if my 7 yr old has any say in it). Our silage appraisal was at 209 down from 260 last year (not same field). When we get going I will send you some more yields. Thanks for the reports.
09-17-2010 07:08 AM - edited 09-17-2010 07:10 AM
I'm as surprised as anybody about the overnights. Wow! And no real fundamental news to go with it. Maybe Brazil is quietly drying up and the market is getting scared, not sure. Hey, thank you for your harvest yield interest. It just so happens, I may be working my way back to southwest Iowa this weekend. Maybe I'll see you in the field. If you see some guy walking across your field waving a camera, don't be surprised. It sounds like your set up for some real nice yields. Good luck and be sure to check back in with a yield report, and test weight and moisture.
09-17-2010 07:14 AM
Are weather conditions in SA having anything to do with rising grain prices? Are the wall street people in the grains heavy because of stock market sluggishness? Maybe that lady market forecaster, forget her name, was right.