09-22-2011 09:23 AM - edited 09-22-2011 09:37 AM
Story on the wire this morning (full story) talks about global prices of wheat, corn and soybeans easing in the fourth quarter as U.S. harvest unfolds.
"According to analysts and traders who participated in two separate conferences...the global supply of these grains isn't as tight as was being feared earlier," the Dow Jones story said.
Among other things, the piece cites higher-than-expected yields in the I states, due to good growing weather in August. That's not quite the story I heard from farmers last month when I took an I-state tour (see slideshow).
And the story mentions greater prospects in North Dakota, South Dakota, northern Iowa and Minnesota, "where yields seem to be understimated."
One source cited in the story is taking the national average corn yield up to 149, 150. Am I missing something in that now all of a sudden we are in this "underestimated yields" mode?
09-22-2011 11:15 AM
The article you refer to is NOT what I'm hearing either. Either from personal anecdotal reports or analysts.
The last analyst I got a report from used deviation from trend yield from late August. MN, NB and SD showed deterioration. I have personal reports indicating the frost did damage over wide areas. Not severe damage, but some areas got dinged - both corn and soy. Some are relieved that corn results are doing better than expectations, but generally anywhere from some to a lot lower than last year.
09-22-2011 11:56 AM
I'm just not a believer that we have begun a collapse to cheap corn yet.
This sell-off is mostly liquidation... not many new sellers.
Any incremental yield increases seem to me to be just a talking point. Not long ago we talked about the need for 162 bu/ac. We will have tight supplies for another year with anxious buyers on breaks.
From these levels farmers should be buying puts instead of making sales... or simply fill the bins and wait.
Does anybody really think we are done with $7 corn?
09-22-2011 12:15 PM
If I were a spec, and I'm not - at least more than the fact that I'm naturally long as a producer and opportunist - I'd be going long right now with a backstop. If I got knocked out I'd be right back in at a pause.
We're not going into the 140's for average national yield w/o consequences.
09-22-2011 01:07 PM
Isn't it great that Saneer mohindu in Sinagpore and Surahi Sahu a DowJones news writer know more about crop yields in the three I's than people who walked through the fields and counted kernels and pods. They must of missed my farm, in NE S. Dak. Combined a field last week, 35 acres 14 bu yield on beans, this was before the frost. Last rain July 19. The rest of it is all froze, lots of empty pods.
09-22-2011 06:22 PM
John...... Didn't you know that if you freeze corn before it is ripe that it realy helps corn not hurt it......
Tha t must be why they think the northern corn will be better.......Hec look at last year and how many could not get the yield right.......I do not think they are any better this year......... p-oed
09-22-2011 06:48 PM
09-22-2011 07:58 PM
Today's price action is nothing more than demand building..
09-22-2011 09:20 PM
You guys are funny, you could have sold for six seven and eight dollar corn, and you where waiting for ten. I do recall perma bull Mizzoo tease people for selling too early. Now its crow eating time.