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John_Walter
Posts: 574
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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Global view of U.S. yields on target?

[ Edited ]

Story on the wire this morning (full story) talks about global prices of wheat, corn and soybeans easing in the fourth quarter as U.S. harvest unfolds.

 

"According to analysts and traders who participated in two separate conferences...the global supply of these grains isn't as tight as was being feared earlier," the Dow Jones story said.

 

Among other things, the piece cites higher-than-expected yields in the I states, due to good growing weather in August. That's not quite the story I heard from farmers last month when I took an I-state tour (see slideshow).

 

And the story mentions greater prospects in North Dakota, South Dakota, northern Iowa and Minnesota, "where yields seem to be understimated."

 

One source cited in the story is taking the national average corn yield up to 149, 150. Am I missing something in that now all of a sudden we are in this "underestimated yields" mode?

 

John

 

 

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Palouser
Posts: 2,290
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Global view of U.S. yields on target?

The article you refer to is NOT what I'm hearing either.  Either from personal anecdotal reports or analysts.

 

The last analyst I got a report from used deviation from trend yield from late August. MN, NB and SD showed deterioration. I have personal reports indicating the frost did damage over wide areas. Not severe damage, but some areas got dinged - both corn and soy. Some are relieved that corn results are doing  better than expectations, but generally anywhere from some to a lot lower than last year.

Frequent Contributor
justinbarnes710
Posts: 70
Registered: ‎04-28-2011
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Re: Global view of U.S. yields on target?

I'm just not a believer that we have begun a collapse to cheap corn yet.

 

This sell-off is mostly liquidation... not many new sellers.

 

Any incremental yield increases seem to me to be just a talking point.  Not long ago we talked about the need for 162 bu/ac.  We will have tight supplies for another year with anxious buyers on breaks.

 

From these levels farmers should be buying puts instead of making sales... or simply fill the bins and wait.

 

Does anybody really think we are done with $7 corn?

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Palouser
Posts: 2,290
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Global view of U.S. yields on target?

If I were a spec, and I'm not - at least more than the fact that I'm naturally long as a producer and opportunist - I'd be going long right now with a backstop. If I got knocked out I'd be right back in at a pause.

 

We're not going into the 140's for average national yield w/o consequences.

Senior Contributor
teaspoon73
Posts: 210
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
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Re: Global view of U.S. yields on target?

         Isn't it great that Saneer mohindu in Sinagpore and Surahi Sahu a DowJones news writer know more about crop yields in the three I's than people who walked through the fields and counted kernels and pods. They must of missed my farm, in NE S. Dak. Combined a field last week,  35 acres 14 bu yield on beans, this was before the frost. Last rain July 19. The rest of it is all froze, lots of empty pods.

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p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: Global view of U.S. yields on target?

John...... Didn't you know that if you freeze corn before it is ripe that it realy helps corn not hurt it......

Tha t must be why they think the northern corn will be better.......Hec look at last year and how many could not get the yield right.......I do not think they are any better this year......... p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,337
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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The freeze damage in IA and north is real.......

As for the articles..........something to talk about.......we may see 6 instead of 7 for awhile, but I will be willing to bet that in 2012 you will be able to sell 2011 and 2012 crop at higher levels than today's close........

Crop is not out there and demand does not just disappear even in turbulent times..........another 10 percent drop should make some end users happy.........
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roarintiger1
Posts: 1,603
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: The freeze damage in IA and north is real.......

Today's price action is nothing more than demand building..

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Contributor
Doug N
Posts: 111
Registered: ‎09-22-2011
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Re: Global view of U.S. yields on target?

Interesting that a group out of Asia is talking our market up. 

Contributor
johndoeQ
Posts: 24
Registered: ‎10-30-2010
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Re: The freeze damage in IA and north is real.......

You guys are funny, you could have sold for six seven and eight dollar corn,  and you where waiting for ten.  I do recall perma bull Mizzoo tease people for selling too early.  Now its crow eating time.