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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,058
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

[ Edited ]

 Sillinoisfarmer,

 

R U talking 10% of gross or net?? ...or maybe only agree to pay them on a sliding %. ie. if they R completely wrong & are of NO help----pay them $00.00, and an agreement that requires them to perform fieldwork.Smiley Surprised  

Senior Advisor
Posts: 4,437
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

C-X-1, are you volunteering?

 

Commodity brokering ought to be like buying a car, we need two free years to test drive the service to see if it's right for us.Smiley Happy

Honored Advisor
Posts: 11,846
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

Weather forecasts more than 3 days out can be a crap shoot.  Acker can have all ducks in line, but a underwater volcano that triggers "El nino" or a hurricane or HAARPSmiley Wink can bollix up a otherwise perfectly good forecast.  Sometimes you get your best info from some guy that isn`t a "super star" that`s always swinging for the bleachers.  Because I`ll guarantee that someone with a genuine crystal ball wouldn`t be selling his knowledge for an measly annual payment of "$395.99..after this month the price goes up!!".

 

I had my belly full of the guy that sits in Boca writing his advice E-mail.  He started early in the year getting everyone sold, I knew the crop wasn`t there and he was FoS.  By July he had everyone that would listen 110% sold, but what took the cake was after it was obvious he was wrong in september, it`s as though he said "For everyone that hasn`t took my stupid advice thus far ...make any clean up sales at this point", welll that got me mad and when the outfit called about renewal I gave them a earfull about basing sell signals while sitting on a yatch in Biscayne Bay...but hey more power to you if you can get the gig.

 

In sumary, no one knows your fields and local area better than you.  No matter how smart you are there`s always some dought in Westjerkoffistan that will catch you off guard, or the Euro or Ruble or Real currency that tanking or a "fiscal cliff" ...something that has nothing to do with the size of the crop that can tank the prices.  It`s just one of my pet peeves when these gurus double down on obviously poor advice and their ego prevents them from admitting they`re wrong...you just get the feeling that they will auger you right into the ground with no remorse. 

 

 

Senior Advisor
Posts: 4,437
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

Well said BA.  I agree.  If the analysts knew what they were talking about, they would all be in Vegas.  Hedgers no longer drive the market, traders do.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,058
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

Shaggy, i could be, but not for brokering, that is for sure....top dressing, perhaps....I did edumacate on what that entailed----my wife thought it was something like "covering your plants before a freeze"Smiley LOL

 

I've worked on several performance based % deals before.............the newsletter guru's and  brokers R paid for just flappin', writing anything or motivate from a fear based perspective-----kind of like MOST insurance models (not crop)....and get paid for ANY action, not necessarily the PROPER action.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,058
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Good crop of reports and predictions

I agree in a sense, $$ moves the mkts (traders, end users & hedgers) not the story, opinion or weather forecast per se'...Now the ACTUAL weather certainly does.....in a nutshell, i think the perception of the economics motivates the strong $$ into action - - - & mkt moves accordingly. 

Senior Advisor
Posts: 9,317
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
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Re: If you were to predict crop size for 2013 producton

What numbers would you use. Here we are at the end of february and the subsoil is dry as a bone. At least in our part of iowa and other vast areas as well. Would you base your yeild predictions at this point in time based on our current dryness or do you think it might rain and recharge the soil. I'm not prepared to predict that it won't rain because history tells us that usually it does.

 

So are you going to bet on a continued drought, rain or excessive rain because anyone of those options are possible and the odds probably favor adequate rainfall. 

 

 I suspect we will see a change in precipitation in the next 60 days and the planters will be rolling. Our perspective can change in a hurry when those torrents of rain put standing water in our fields. I certainly wouldn't bet on a crop failure, not at this point in time. perhaps i should take that $500 per acre to the bank and let someone else take the risk.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,058
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: If you were to predict crop size for 2013 producton

[ Edited ]

I'm using a lot of #'s would be my 1st response. Leaning toward upper end of 145--lower end = below 100 if 96.5 planted in Corn. i do all types of analysis w/ climate trends, charting yield data, charting $$ flow, charting prices of course. all i know for sure re: weather worldwide-wise: the extreme anomolies we've seen for 2-3 yrs now are still occurring.

 

other thing i'm pretty sure on is US/world stocks/use is not in an uptrend...US likely has less than being "officially" reported, and thus give themselves wiggle room by starting w/ a 13b+ crop. if things turn out less stellar they have "illusion of room to decrease usage #'s"...a game they play until mkt HAS to reveal the truth.

 

lastly, what I'll say is current old/new prices are artificial based more on hope than reality. End users would LOVE every farmer to fwd sell all of 2013 here. $$-wise they are protecting themselves more against higher prices than lower. ie. from their perspective, risk is to upside

 

there will be more opportunity in a year like this with old/new spreads likely to widen more as spring becomes us.

 

if u look at the megadrought thread above, we are in a cycle outlyer = 500-600 yrs ago already. Certainly, we could have an anomolous wet yr w/in that...but how does a farmer protect against conditions not improving from here. Now that is one of your concerns, too, i suspect. 

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Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,189
Registered: ‎10-17-2012

Re: If you were to predict crop size for 2013 producton

[ Edited ]

A few years ago , I was sitting in the office of our  merchandiser a MTG ,we were talking about crop conditions - where prices were --- Or weren't going to do , then the subject came up on marketing news letters and advisers , he said he did not understand why any farmers would pay for that kind of service , reason was he said with the way social media is today - with the chat rooms , e-mail , ag forms , tweeter , and tooter ( thats the one I use ) we know more than anybody in the field , he said that back years ago that they ( merchandiser's ) and traders had a 3 day lead  over us , that day he said ,we are even at best but most times behind in the game of info .

 

I gave a lot of thought about what he said and by golly he had a great point , case in point here , I had been on ag-web for about 4or 5 years and had made a very good data base of contacts from get togethers and by phone , I had SIL , Db-51 , peeler , rfarmgirl and jabber 1 in Illinois , Steiger green in MI. , Bins and JDmax in the buckeye , JTH in the bluegrass , then add roger 7 ,glowplug , Larrydc , kinghere , Duke all  in WS , Dairyfarmn in MN , Steffy , NDSU 84 , OBG  , Tas , SouthDakota --all in SD , 48 , dennis 1 and ses in Kansas , Noble in OK , La 345 in LA , Iowa 55 and iadave in Iowa and nattyman in MO the list go's on and on , talk about info !!! , they trusted  me and I trusted them , talk about some great marketing news !! We all based our marketing to a great point on each others reports , not on the talking heads ! and it has paided off in spades .

 

Last year on the other site , I would take the Hagie out in the fields and take pictures of the corn and beans and then post them up , I did this for 7 weeks , talk about corn going down hill ! And it was out there for anybody to see . This year i plan on doing the same thing , but on here .

 

As somebody posted above - there is NObody that knows there crops or area better than they do and with the help of others to fill in the holes thru out the farm belt , the talking heads can --try and sing to the choir all they want -- we know .

 

Have a great week !

 

Ken

 

 

BTW B A Deere ------ Westjerkoffistan ??? ROTFLMAO 

 

 

 

Senior Advisor
Posts: 4,437
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: If you were to predict crop size for 2013 producton

Great post ECIN, I am still struggling with the whole post a picture thing, but I've been practicing. I will attempt to do the same thing, and you are correct, the info we can pass around on this site is a hell of a lot more valid than what we can gain from a desk jockey. C-X-1, I mean no offense or disrespect towards you.