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Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,677
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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HRW Wheat perspective

Wheat perspective compared to other years.

 

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sw
Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,136
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: HRW Wheat perspective

Wow!
Veteran Contributor
ag-?
Posts: 84
Registered: ‎05-11-2011
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Re: HRW Wheat perspective

Here in hard red spring wheat country in northern nd the price of wheat is not exactly going to make you switch to growing wheat if any thing its making us to look at alternative crops for next year. Chs beyond magazine had comparisons on economics on growing different crops for our region and wheat was lowest potential for return. There is also alot of interest in growing corn here with current prices and economics show that it can be largest rate return here but still questions if we have long enough growing season and it can be successfully harvested and ground prepared to grow another crop for next year.  If the new gentics prooves out wheat is going to have hard time attracting acres in the future. I think the market is really lagging on wheat prices based on inventories and condition of the new crop already. Also alot of the plans for new crop are being made now and longer it goes less likely hood ground is going to get planted to wheat. I keep thinking were heading to where were going to have year where wheat is not going to be found and shortages wheat for food. I can hear already others on board saying wheat is grown all over world can be replenish quickly.  It seems that demand for agriculture crops is growing as fast as the world can produce it and inventories are just meeting demand. This could change with abundant crops but i just see that demand has been steady and new large increases in production are more and more difficult to obtain. If anything chemicals are becoming less effective by weeds gentically adapting to them and will require more management and covential tillage to control them.

 

Also were experiencing beginings of severe drought in spring wheat area's and seems like this drought expanding and moving north last several years. this could get to be very interesting coming year and markets could have some real volatility if this drought continues expands in North America. 

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,333
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: HRW Wheat perspective

So I gotta ask............you use the word severe and expanding........

And you think you can grow corn????????

Come on down to WMO. SRW made 50 to 100 this year........corn made 0 to 30.......

Good luck......
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,333
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: HRW Wheat perspective

And before we go down the road.........well corn insurance check is much nicer than a wheat insurance check in a disaster........

One of several reasons I believe in the grain complex bull super cycle and peak corn........given the current dynamics we are growing corn where it shouldn't be grown.........and giving up total max production by growing corn instead of wheat, milo, soya, etc..........

I also agree and have made mention many times........the larger our farms get and the fewer growers there are........combined with a total disconnect for the land is leading to a flat line in yields.........if you making NNN per acre on NNNNN acres........and have NNNN insurance gaurantee..........ROI trumps max yield.......
Veteran Contributor
ag-?
Posts: 84
Registered: ‎05-11-2011
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Re: HRW Wheat perspective

I agree with you that we probably could grow larger percentage of crop on older normal crops and compared to the bushels grown for corn. The lower land costs offset your higher corn yield and also some what lower input costs. The bottom line is corn is valued more than wheat and some of other crops we used to grow here.

 

The answer to other responder is where were at here in Northern ND has received good moisture this fall and subsoil moistures are also full. Other parts of the state have not received rainfall that is needed and is getting worse but like person mentioned they have grown corn and corn insurance coverage is much better coverage.

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,167
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: HRW Wheat perspective

Anyone ever have a foolish moment they want to share?  I made a silly mistake of buying put options for my wheat acres For 2013.  What a bone head move.  I guess I was nervous and wanted to protect the price we have, just in case.

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,259
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: HRW Wheat perspective

...maybe it's not to late to pare down if you think you bought to much...or liquidate completely and write some calls to control risk more precisely...

Senior Contributor
clayton58
Posts: 350
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: HRW Wheat perspective

Not sure why buying puts for 2013 wheat is a bad move.  Unless you bought too many.  Of course, timimg is everything. 

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,677
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: HRW Wheat perspective

MT,

At the meeting in Clear Lake we heard a discussion on where the new or expanded corn acres in future years were going to come from.  The Dakotas, Montana and central Canada is part of what we heard.  And Ag-1 is right, If they have full profile and normal rainfall(and a little more heat than the old days)----- at these prices 80-100 bu corn beats wheat.

I couldn't believe what I was hearing at the time.

sw