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Advisor
time:thetippingpoint
Posts: 577
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: Highs and Lows

[ Edited ]

Just from the statistical perspective, you bulls will be pretty embarrassed this fall.

 

Besides, this is the wrong question. The real question that should be addressed is what is your plan for two scenarios:

1. If you are right

2. If you are wrong

The second being the most important when the lowest price guess for fall corn is 5.50. (already trading 5.80 today-basis)

 

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,602
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Highs and Lows

Might as well predict the weather......Most folks will be just as accurate.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,335
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: Highs and Lows

Time.....you really do think 170 is going to happen don't you......I still scratch my head at you guys.....preaching the end is near for years now....forward contract or else is all we hear.....yet you also seem to sell at the top too......you guys must be full season double crop out there.....let me in on that deal....

As for embarassed, not as much as when 170 doesn't happen and you get the tab....
Frequent Contributor
ehoff4187600
Posts: 46
Registered: ‎07-13-2010

Re: Highs and Lows

4 of the last 4 drougths prices returned to where they started or below by or during the following harvest and that is futures price. Less basis looks even more challenging. I know gold bulls who say no way can gold go to 1100 just as some argue no way corn can go to X. The 5 mantras were taught to me by my fighter pilot brother who learned them from the air force. Prior planning prevents poor performance. In their line of work it prevents death and loss in combat and training. They analyze, prepare and train for all scenarios so as to not be victims of a bad outcome. There are methods to be a little less right if we have a drougth but be hugely right if we don't. These are the days to institute the 5 P's. 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Highs and Lows

Mizzou_Tiger,

 

Follow me here. Because the last two or three years have worked out for those farmers that decided to wait and simply sell off of the combine, do you think this has lulled some to sleep in the risk management world? In other words, do you see some getting complacent, thinking that strategy is the best one until proven otherwise? Wait, have I asked this question before? Oh well, if I have disregard it. But, I'd be curious if you are noticing more guys/gals coming into your marketing 'camp'?

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Highs and Lows

ehoff4187600,

 

IF we had an award for the most reasonable post of the year, I would nominate you as a candidate. Great thoughts and I appreciate you sharing them. Come back anytime. Keep it up and thanks for coming out of the shadows of the 'lurking' world. It's not all bad out here in the light, is it?

 

Mike

Advisor
425Cat
Posts: 1,686
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Highs and Lows

Statistics are fine however which ones do you use. Maybe this weather pattern is an abberation which may skew history a bit. Maybe a 1930's type situation.

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,335
Registered: ‎11-02-2010

Re: Highs and Lows

i am sure some are.........

 

there is a difference between selling $7 plus corn right now, or $8 plus last summer............and hedging new crop with a $5.........one scenerio has a lot of downside risk..........the other not so much..........

 

there are some on here that chase the board left and right..........thats fine if you have a staff dedicated to watching every single blip on the market radar screen and are comfortable with being in and out of the market 100 times in a year.........IMO thats called trading, not marketing..........you wanna talk trading we need to reboot and take this thing a totally different direction.........because the objectives and time tables of a trader versus someone trying to market some grain are totally different.........

 

IMO non of it is risk management...........because its all gambling until the physical bushel clears the pit and the check clears the bank.........

 

at the end of the day its all dependent on your situation...........cash flow...........your perception of $5 new crop corn is very different depending on which side of the fence you live...........the high dollar cash rent, almost no equity, cash row crop business with your brass in a jar on Mr Banker's desk.................or..............the ZERO land debt, ZERO machinary debt, ZERO anything debt, with bins and money...........and you cant knock the ZERO guy, cause his net worth statement is pretty much like a rock, he musta done something right...........

 

We could see $4 corn this fall, its a possibility............guess what........if we have a $4 or a $3 in front of things in 12 months...........we will lose MILLIONS, probably 10's of MILLIONS of acres over night............these "I" state boyz do not understand what it takes to make a marginal acre work, and what a crop looks like with no rain..............

 

10 plus years ago, the marginal acres did not matter...........the core and the next ring out from the core grew enough and then some.........if the marginal acres burnt up, no one cared, if the "I" states had a decent to good year, that was good enough...........most have never been on the side of $1.50 corn and 50 bushel yields or less........and that happened more often than not on the marginal acres..........which is why they had cattle on them or in CRP............$7 corn and 75 bushel are tough, but it works............$4 and 75 no longer competes with cattle and CRP............

 

Again, a new era...........again, another piece of the PEAK CORN puzzle..........

Senior Contributor
too close for comfort
Posts: 226
Registered: ‎05-11-2010
0

Re: Highs and Lows

$4 corn would knock the hell out of total busels but just think what it would do for trend line yields. We could maybe hit 170 or 180.

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,335
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: Highs and Lows

we need to lose 15-20M corn acres to have a shot at 170 plus............probably 20-25M to have a shot at 180..........

 

its all about total bushels..............PEAK CORN..........