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Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Historical observation

In 1996 the Corn Jul/Dec spread increased 146% from Mar 19 to Apr 26

 

That same spread today settled about +149---are things getting tight enough for this spread to approach anything like '96, yet?

Senior Contributor
bkadds
Posts: 321
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Historical observation

Spread going opposite of basis here equals no net change. New crop basis seems lower than normal for this time of year. Makes me wonder if the trains hauling to our feedyards are having some effect.
Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 9,152
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Historical observation

JMHO, CX-1 new crop corn is a sucker`s bet, too much is already dialed in.  Right now old corn is a "domestic market"  Here`s what David Kruse is saying  http://www.commstock.com/radiobroadcasts-v2.asp

"Courage is fear that has said it`s prayers"
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,634
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Historical observation

According to Kruse, "We think there is another entire new season of rationing coming."      It's too bad many think that the rationing is already done.  Although many didn't fill their bins and those that did have emptied them already, what grain is left should fetch a handsome reward.    As Kenny Rogers sang, "You've got to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold'em......know when to walk away, and know when to run."

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Contributor
infire
Posts: 83
Registered: ‎07-07-2010
0

Re: Historical observation

I see what he's saying but gotta tell ya sitting here with old corn & a 7.76 april bid at local Poet plant makes it awful hard to holdém!

 

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,829
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Historical observation

Well-------- Infire, I would say $7.76 was too high for a lot of well fed cattle.  $7.22 wheat (or less) just took over that spot in the demand mix and the plan is not to go back to corn til there is a sizeable supply.  In a one week period that decision changed the marketing and basis in the sw region.

I have been in this spot before-------normally in July------ where I have some old crop on hand, waiting for that spot market or a slack spot at the feeders we market too, and it suddenly becomes apparent that I have some new crop corn in the bin.  

It's one of those "Genious Marketing moves " I try not to tell about-------------------- The price is $7.76 now----- and it makes my poor marketing moves easier to report, and my grain easier to get out of here.-------------- May delivery here is $7.93 to the ethanol plant.

Was enough to pull some triggers here.

 

:smileyhappy:   

sw
Veteran Contributor
nitefarm
Posts: 122
Registered: ‎05-09-2010
0

Re: Historical observation

All that is true BUT it is not even APRIL yet. I do not know anything for sure other than that , but i think i will hold a while longer and see if i can get 6.00.  HA HA

Veteran Contributor
infire
Posts: 83
Registered: ‎07-07-2010
0

Re: Historical observation

Amen nitefarm that my friend is exactly what I'm afraid of because I've done it before, everyone on here is all bulled up, makes me wonder if I shouldn't head for the door.

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Historical observation

Thanks BA Deere.

 

another season....half a year....seems about right...it never appeared to me any REAL rationing had occured yet.

Senior Contributor
rswfarms
Posts: 1,377
Registered: ‎12-17-2012
0

Re: Historical observation/$7.93 at the Ethanol Plant for May?????

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't $7.93 for May corn to the ethanol plant transfer to a 64 cent over Chicago Basis Level? That's a darn good ethanol basis level. Believe that is current 25 cents better than our ethanol basis level in North-Central Iowa. $7.93 is too good to turn down I believe.For me, $7.93 would translate into an over $900/acre profit for old crop corn. I think I would sell some if your profit level is the same as us Iowa guys, but this profit level is only if you have your farmland completely paid-off, not if you are paying a $500/acre cash-rent.