11-15-2011 03:30 PM
Story on the wire just posted (full story) talks about how "Tight farmer holding of harvested supplies is keeping cash-basis levels for grain and soybeans firm across the Midwest."
One analyst commented: "This is a situation that will not change until we see an increase in country grain movement, and it is possible that will not take place for the next 45 to 60 days, carrying into the next calendar year."
People agree with this analysis? What's the attitude in your neighborhood?
11-15-2011 07:51 PM
Probably a lot of farmers holding in Ontario.
Good prices and good yields has left a tax position that few farmers like or have had experience in recent years so they are delaying pricing into the next calendar year.
Kind of kicking the profits down the road to worry about them later.
That said it is also a fact that Ontario corn basis is at an export level right now.
This does not encourage farmers to sell especially when most expect our supply to require imports before 2012 corn hits the market so the wisdom is to wait until basis improves and hopefully Chicago too.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
11-15-2011 09:07 PM
in my part of the world 2 elevators didnt put any corn on the ground. the local e plants are running 115-120%of capacity so i think the basis will be over the board by who knows cattle and hog boys are leaving the crop farmers in the dust with profits. corn is leaving fast and that doesnt count exports.
11-16-2011 06:30 AM
Our local coop is a ghost town. Guys are coring bins and coop semis are hauling to feed mills. Other coops that have corn on the ground have always had corn on the ground. One usually has 2 but this year it is one and a half. This is showing me in our area a short harvest. What is bothering me is the fact that according to the last FC Stone report I read, is the trade will be willing to "understand" this short crop with the ideas that in Feb Ag Forum, the USDA will project a 94 million acre crop with a 158 type yield. Pretty bearish. Takes carryout up over 1 billion for 2012. Our cash price for Oct 2012 is 5.20. That number doesn't seem high enough to buy 94 million acres....MikeM
11-16-2011 07:00 AM
Hey Mike. I have noticed the same thing but I wonder if there is less corn on the ground becasue of all the new storage?
Down at Corwith they have put up almost 1.5 million in new storage. Over at Galbraith they have put up nearly the same in new storage.
The big green farmer north of Wesley has put up a huge new grain setup. Even the Co-op in the center of the universe has put up alot of new storage. SO I wonder if they have the same amount of grain around but it is in new structures?
Not saying we are way long on corn but it might be just a little more "hidden".
11-16-2011 07:04 AM
Manager at our local coop commented that while they got in almost as much corn as they normally did this year, they started harvest season with almost no corn. They had a semi-load they 'needed' to get out (some guy brought in corn for storage, and then wanted it back) and had to wait for my little 300bu truck to empty, before they had enough to fill their semi. This was in late September. They gave FREE drying in September, until about October 6th or 8th or so, until they got enough corn in, to fill their immediate obligations. What I am getting at, while the harvest here isn't as short as a lot of places, corn will be short, because they were pulling in the new crop corn early, just to keep corn in the pipeline. If we have a late harvest next year, no matter how big, I feel there will be spot shortages before it gets here.
11-16-2011 07:36 AM
Won't argue the new storage issue but even during harvest with no rain delays, you hardly waited in line anywhere. It still takes the same amount of time to scale dump and scale. Last fall we were faced with coops holding on to crap corn that they needed to blend with the good stuff. This year, they were pretty much empty. I still don't think the crop was there this year and it will show up in the Jan report. That maybe overshadowed by optimistic 2012 projections....MikeM
11-16-2011 08:10 AM
There's not the piles around here in SE MN this year, but there is a tremendous amount of new on farm storage that has went up and I think guys are just holding out for awhile. Guys are getting so big anymore that they can't afford to wait in lines like years past so build a bin. I would say in just 2-3 yrs Mower county and Dodge county MN has almost doubled on farm storage.
11-16-2011 12:26 PM
You ciould just say it like it is. THERE IS NOT AS MUCH CORN and BEANS AROUND. Short crops keep getting smaller. Price is being adjusted with basis. Dec basis narrows another 15 cents. around here. CME does not reflect the price being paid in a lot of commodities. Maybe its loosing it functionality. Oil market is exploding , looks like inflation is about to kick in.