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Frequent Contributor
sd/pa
Posts: 38
Registered: ‎09-29-2010
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How can corn use be down 1 billion bus feb-mar?

"December 2012 - February 2013 indicated disappearance is 2.63 billion bushels, compared with 3.62 billion bushels during the same period last year." 2nd quarter usage down 27%. If one accounts for ethanol, exports, head of cattle, hogs, poultry, is it possible corn use drops 27% last quarter? Does not seem possible to me...

Veteran Contributor
Kstater85
Posts: 114
Registered: ‎06-28-2012
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Re: How can corn use be down 1 billion bus feb-mar?

Ethanol usage is down 23% and exports are down 50%+.   Those are knowns.   The only variable is feed use.

Frequent Contributor
sd/pa
Posts: 38
Registered: ‎09-29-2010
0

Re: How can corn use be down 1 billion bus feb-mar?

The March WASDE usda report suggested that the annual decline in exports (-643), ethanol (-501), and feed use (+2) sums to a total of -1.151 billion bu. Divided by four quarters suggests disappearance would fall 288 million bu per quarter. Much less than the 999 million less bu used implied by the just releassed stocks report. Doesn't smell right to me...

Veteran Contributor
Kstater85
Posts: 114
Registered: ‎06-28-2012
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Re: How can corn use be down 1 billion bus feb-mar?

Remember that 70% of corn use is in the first half.    Typical corn use by quarter is 40%-30%-20%-10%

Advisor
Faust100F
Posts: 831
Registered: ‎11-09-2010
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Re: How can corn use be down 1 billion bus feb-mar?

[ Edited ]

SD - Lmao!  Are you enjoying this comic book as much as I am, they just never disappoint me. Of course this should have been a bullish report, (if all the numbers published leading up to this fiasco were in fact real) but it is now a political report, not a report based upon real numbers.  

 

Numbers do not lie, but liars do figure, they wanted to push prices on remaining grain owned by farmers down, they did a great job with this report.   These are fantasy numbers, and believe me they are laughing inside USDA about all the bullish remarks (aka bovine feces) which caused corn farmers to be sucked in to raising $5 corn n 2013 and $11 beans in 2013.  I hope you now understand my jaundiced view of our imbecles that publish these reports.   Adios Amigo. John 

Frequent Contributor
sd/pa
Posts: 38
Registered: ‎09-29-2010
0

Re: How can corn use be down 1 billion bus feb-mar?

USDA took 87% of the 1.151 billion bu decline in the entire year's total projected use of corn and subtracted it (999 million bu) from usage in the 2nd quarter... Statistically I don't know how that can work correctly...

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 432
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
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Re: How can corn use be down 1 billion bus feb-mar?

Kstater were do you come up with them numbers. They make know sence. 70 percent corn is used in the first half.lmao
Veteran Contributor
Kstater85
Posts: 114
Registered: ‎06-28-2012
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Re: How can corn use be down 1 billion bus feb-mar?

simply quoting history.    you dont have to believe it to make it a fact.

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 432
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
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Re: How can corn use be down 1 billion bus feb-mar?

So your saying we should be down to a 3 billion stocks number?
Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: How can corn use be down 1 billion bus feb-mar?

[ Edited ]

70% would be 3.56 bil left on total begin supply of 11.869 bil.

 

so, the good ol gov't is saying we've only used about 54.5%

 

that's why your 4.6 # was VERY reasonable - still implys good rationing!!