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03-28-2013 11:55 AM
"December 2012 - February 2013 indicated disappearance is 2.63 billion bushels, compared with 3.62 billion bushels during the same period last year." 2nd quarter usage down 27%. If one accounts for ethanol, exports, head of cattle, hogs, poultry, is it possible corn use drops 27% last quarter? Does not seem possible to me...
03-28-2013 12:37 PM
The March WASDE usda report suggested that the annual decline in exports (-643), ethanol (-501), and feed use (+2) sums to a total of -1.151 billion bu. Divided by four quarters suggests disappearance would fall 288 million bu per quarter. Much less than the 999 million less bu used implied by the just releassed stocks report. Doesn't smell right to me...
03-28-2013 12:58 PM - edited 03-28-2013 01:01 PM
SD - Lmao! Are you enjoying this comic book as much as I am, they just never disappoint me. Of course this should have been a bullish report, (if all the numbers published leading up to this fiasco were in fact real) but it is now a political report, not a report based upon real numbers.
Numbers do not lie, but liars do figure, they wanted to push prices on remaining grain owned by farmers down, they did a great job with this report. These are fantasy numbers, and believe me they are laughing inside USDA about all the bullish remarks (aka bovine feces) which caused corn farmers to be sucked in to raising $5 corn n 2013 and $11 beans in 2013. I hope you now understand my jaundiced view of our imbecles that publish these reports. Adios Amigo. John
03-28-2013 01:05 PM
USDA took 87% of the 1.151 billion bu decline in the entire year's total projected use of corn and subtracted it (999 million bu) from usage in the 2nd quarter... Statistically I don't know how that can work correctly...
03-28-2013 02:12 PM - edited 03-28-2013 02:13 PM
70% would be 3.56 bil left on total begin supply of 11.869 bil.
so, the good ol gov't is saying we've only used about 54.5%
that's why your 4.6 # was VERY reasonable - still implys good rationing!!