Marketing

[marketeye]

A new report is in from South America. See the full report in the Crop Talk section.

Here is the link:   Argentina Drought Drops Crop Output

This is a soil moisture map, outlining just how short Argentina's corn/soy production areas are on rainfall. As of January 2, the major producing areas, located in the northeast area of this map, have only received between 20-30% of normal rainfall. As of Monday, these same areas needed between 3-4 inches of rain before January 10 to avoid drought-like stress. Though light rains have fallen this week, the hot weather is likely seen soaking up the moisture quickly. On Wednesday, the market is still focused on Argentine's moisture shortfall. The map is from an Argentine government agency.

Mike

[floydboy]

Through this morning, the rainfall total at the city of Junin (located in northern Buenos Aires and right in a key part of the Argentine growing area) had received 2.39" of rain since November 1...27% of normal. I note several locations in Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios that have recorded under 50% of normal rainfall in that period. No one that I track in the heart of the major corn/soybean area has had normal rainfall since November 1.

[marketeye]

floydboy,

Your findings seem to corroborate the story the map is telling. Actually, your findings make the dry conditions seem even drier. You know, there is an Argentine farmer that visits this site. His screen name is Santiago. I sure wish he would stop in and update all of us what it's like on the ground, in Argentina. Maybe he will.

Thanks,

Mike

[nwobcw]

   While we usually aren't concerned about how dry it is during winter it is interesting to note that moisture has been skimpy since August.  We only lost 2 days of harvest to rain.  Wheat germination was iffy due to lack of rain.  4" of snow and less than a half inch of rain since winter set in.  When the snow melted with 50 degree temps last week along with a few showers the water disipated rather quickly in our flat heavy clay soils.  It is something to keep in the back of ones mind.

[Pupdaddy]

NWOBCW has a point, here in NW Ohio, the tile didn't have any water in them until December...and then it wasn't flowing like it normally does. I was deer hunting through my woods, and one of the mains that usually has water virtually all the time wasn't running at all. It makes you wonder...if we haven't got more problems headed our way this spring...

[nwobcw]

   Pup. a while back I noted somewhere in here that I buried a cat in my woods as it is usually softer to dig.  At that time it was about the dryest I've ever seen woods ground.  Dry and crumbly, like plowing hay ground in August.

[GoredHusker]

Excuse my ignorance as I have never been around or dealt with tile, but anytime the tiles are running doesn't this mean the soil capacity is full?  Once the soil capacity is full, then the tiles run water, right?  If this is true, then does it really matter if the tile isn't running as much as normal considering your soil capacity is alreay at 100% full?  Here in Nebraska, we don't really worry about excessive moisture especially here in the western part of the state.  However, I don't recall ever having a drought when California has record moisture and flooding.  If I had to bet, I'd bet delayed planting from too much moisture this spring rather than betting on a drought. 

[marketeye]

FYI: Argentina's corn production estimate was set at 20.35 million metric tons Thursday, much lower than previous estimates.

Mike

[Pupdaddy]

Gored...you may not quite understand our soils in NW Ohio. If we have water running in the tile...we know the water table in the soil is high enough to probably produce an outstanding corn crop. If it's not running by spring..then we're going to relying on timely rains..a lot like the dryland farmers in Nebraska. While we may get a little better yields than dryland farming in Nebraska..because of more frequent summer rainfall events...we still know the extra water stored in the soil will produce yields that are outstanding. It's very rare to see dry subsoils this time of year in NW Ohio...there's just too much old marshland converted to farmland...