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Senior Contributor
GoredHusker
Posts: 1,709
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

How low does she go?

Considering I've now flexed all my positions on new crop corn, it will probably fall another 50 cents.  From watching the charts, the past few times we've spiked up to make a new high we've sold off a dollar on the front month.  Today, we fell to just over a dollar.  While I do believe long term we'll see a repeat of 2008 all over again; the time isn't now.  In order for a 2008 repeat, it appears to me that the index funds have to get spooked.  Oil is still trading in it's range.  Cattle were up the limit.  I don't see many other markets getting hammered which tells me that the hedge funds are not spooked. 

 

If one follows charts much, it's easy to see that for roughly a year the CZ1 chart has been in an uptrend.  By drawing a line from the dips in the market, one will also see that we've actually only closed below the uptrend line once which was back in March.  We're setting just three to five cents above the uptrend line right now.  I'm betting we touch it and go maybe as early as tonight.  I'll be putting my positions back on if we break the trendline and then can't break out above it. 

Senior Contributor
jec22
Posts: 410
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
0

Re: How low does she go?

Well, after hours.  Ethanol vote., though just symbolic, it creates movement.  The CME increasing margins on corn and soybeans and other commodities today. Might be a reason some are lifting hedges, it was sure a poison pill for silver. 

If the ethanol mandate should be  up for revision, should I go long gasoline futures?

 

All this excitement for a corn crop that is less than two foot tall most places.  The June break came about ten days early this year.  Does that mean it is not the normal cycle?

 

Interesting note on the grafts posted on planting dates.  To me the data says that an early planting does not guarantee a good crop(2010).  But, a late planting usually limits crop yields.  That is why some times there is no difference in final yield between early and late planting.  Now if someone can show me a year when we planted late and still produced way above trend, that would be good for comparison.

 

Gored your 50 cents down,would put us in the cash range around here what held this market on the last correction.

 

So. IA
Senior Contributor
GoredHusker
Posts: 1,709
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: How low does she go?

If you take the percent emerged this year, it is very comparable to 2009.  The good to excellent rating of this year's crop is almost a mirror image of what the good to excellent rating was of the 2009 corn crop as well this time of year.  While I'm not insinuating a record corn crop this year, I'm also not ruling out trend or above either.  Mother Nature will be the deciding factor.

 

I'm not really concerned with what held the market on the last correction.  I'm a lot more interested in whether the uptrend line can be sustained.  If it cannot and becomes a line of resistance, I'll be putting my hedges back on regardless of where we are in terms of my 50 cent stop.  Corn more than likely would have held its own today had it not been for the extremely horrible price action in the neighboring wheat pits.  When wheat broke through its March lows, I knew we were in trouble.  It will be interesting to see which commodity leads what from here forward.  I would think any feeder would need his/her head examined for at least not looking at substituting wheat in feed rations at these price levels.   

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,263
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: How low does she go?

[ Edited ]

Uncertainty is a funny thing.........it really means nothing, yet it mutes fundamentals and even technical's.............

 

Greece, economy both domestic and world, ethanol...........

 

money flow is headed towards the doors..........so far its been an orderly march..........if they all make a run at the doors its a problem............look at Ag stocks today...........destroyed...........even after multiple upgrades the last week, several real time live analyst with buy advertisement...........and some that are nearing 10 P/E ratios in a sector that should be fetching 18-20 with its growth potential.........

 

if the equities are spooked and the grains are spooked..............nothing changes till we get uncertainty out of the way or hit rock bottom.........until then its limbo...........

 

until things pan out..............I am out other than sure bet short term or day trade set ups.............

 

EDIT:  and again for the record.........production is going to fall short...........we will not crack 13B on corn...........and soya will be 3.1B or below..........but none of that matters right now..........just like last year, blah blah, blah it looks great, well if you know your agronomics you know stunted yellow corn in June and a late crop needs a perfect season to get out the gate.............o yeah and out the gate is still a short crop compared to March estimates.......

Senior Contributor
NCcorntrader
Posts: 292
Registered: ‎05-11-2011
0

Re: How low does she go?

Mizzou-

 

youre out? right when I get bullish short term?

 

I am looking for positive bias thru next week and into the 6/30 crop report. i am actually LONG a small position now. of course that could change tomorrow. overnight buying could push it up to 710, maybe even the 715 area.

 

you can rest assured one thing- I will be OUT of the market starting the morning of 6/29 thru 7/1

Senior Contributor
SouthWestOhio
Posts: 519
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: How low does she go?

NC, You will be out of the market starting 6/29? What's the matter, don't you trust the USDA to tell the truth? If they are trying to manipulate things I think they will have to weigh two choices. Keep grain prices low or insure we have enough supply to make it through September. I'm bettting the latter. If they err on supply and shortages happen heads will roll out the door onto Independence Avenue.

 

Guess I have my optimisim cap on but I sure wouldn't want to be blamed for running out of corn.

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,263
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: How low does she go?

we are oversold and near trendline............so yes short term bounce coming tomorrow or Sunday............however I don't trust the combo of Greece and ethanol............if the euro crumbles and dollar soars........while I still think the fundamental story of grains should disconnect from the dollar it will not right now and a major move in the dollar will wreck grains........again it shouldn't but it will and here is reason two.........uncertainty in ethanol.........facts and fundamentals are muted........Uncertainty rules..........thus two evils and informa number dreaming of a grain christmas............again IMO we will be short on crop but fundamentals are muted........

 

we did bounce late day off lows, which usually signals a good sign,,,,,,,,,,,however so did equities, and I don't trust either.........unless we hear total resolution out of Greece tomorrow in the AM.........I would be out the market by mid-day........weekends like this can play heck especially when traders are throwing around 2008 collapse type sceneries........

 

not saying I won't take a peak at the market tomorrow, but its gotta be a nice set-up otherwise its not worth it going into Friday, especially since IMO we are in such uncertainty that can wreck havic on any long term positions........

 

call me a wimp...........but this market has been able to climb a wall of worry and all of a sudden its in limbo...........one false move and down we go...........quick note, I listen to CNBC when I get chances to.........Jim Cramer made his cover your butt speech tonight..........first major cover your butt speak I have seen from him in awhile..........he said Dow 7500 if it goes, he doesn't think it will, but the fact he paraded that out means he is thinking about it............a lot of individuals were thinking Dow 13000 this year, well we basically got there so we may be headed lower.........Personally DOW 10000 is a major major support level..........either way........like it or not........commodities are going with it as investor pessimist reflects lower global growth and in their eyes that means less grain consumption.........doesn't make it right, but again uncertainty mutes all......

Senior Contributor
NCcorntrader
Posts: 292
Registered: ‎05-11-2011
0

Re: How low does she go?

SW OH

 

the reports are too much of a crapshoot- plus, I dont like the fact that they get LEAKED to funds a day prior

 

Mizzou

 

not wimpy- sounds prudent to me. my position is timid to say the least. i agree on this weekend- could get dicey

 

 

Senior Contributor
NCcorntrader
Posts: 292
Registered: ‎05-11-2011
0

Re: How low does she go?

took my 10 cents overnight and am now out as well

 

price could go either way at this point- would suspect a mild sell off at close for reasons prior- might participate if I am around

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,263
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: How low does she go?

thats probably a good trade.........take the day off.........still no deal in Greece, even though dog and pony show.........equities are bouncing but that is even fading some as we move towards the bell.........

 

also oil is fading again this AM along with metals.........

 

VIX is still well above 20........if that holds into the close I think its a game of chicken.........