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Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
Accepted Solution

I Wonder

if this analyst is suprised all 3 mkts are up double digits tonight??? Mike, any possibility on who this is - to aid us in the community as a "do the opposite" indicator, or do they wish to remain anonymous?

 

  from Friday..... --One analyst says, "There's {nothing} in the report that suggests a near term low is in. They should come in Monday saying the report was priced in Friday and go back to the business on hand that is a weakening demand pace and good south American weather for crops and selling again. " 

 

JMHO, but seems like a pretty strong statement....."NOTHING IN THE REPORT"

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Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: I Wonder

Theres been nothing in the reports or on the ground since 2010...........

 

Just have to laugh at it all........

 

They wanna unwind this thing so bad its stupid..........

 

They will get it done sometime.........and it will be followed by another run........

 

We have been dancing since 2007.........

 

These so called experts have been chasing ambulances........

 

Heck even SS was suckered in last winter..........

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: I Wonder

Who is SS?

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roarintiger1
Posts: 1,633
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: I Wonder

I am wondering not only who this analyst is, but just what they were analyzing?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
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Faust100F
Posts: 831
Registered: ‎11-09-2010

Re: I Wonder

[ Edited ]

Boys, you have to enjoy this report, it just keeps getting  better and better.  If you look back at the market movements before the reports are issued, most times . . . it seems to me . . . that there is a sell off and then after the report is issued . . . prices recover as they are doing now.  Kinda looks to me like there is some churning going on. 

 

I mean common sense . . . to me . . . is look at the facts (screw the report) . . . dry weather in the cornbelt (except ECI's farm), we need at least 16 inches of rain just to get back the subsoil moisture, normal rainfall in Ioway is 35 inches in Northwest Iowa and around 45 in Southern Iowa, we have a long, long way to go to get the moisture we need to even have half the crop we had last year when we had adequate subsoil moisture.

 

Look at the Big Pig outfits, look around . . . how many reports have we heard these outfits are  liquidatiing sow numbers, none in my neighborhood have closed their doors . . . RSW and his Big Pig Buddies in North Central Iowa have not cut back . . .  look at feeders . . . my neighbor is bringing in cattle to feed as they have done for over 65 years and they purchase all their feed.  

 

There may be some breeding stock reductions taking place in cattle in "next year country" due to the drouth, but overall few of my neighbors in Southern Iowa have sold off cattle,   and look forward to good prices in their cow calf operations.

 

 Ethanol Plants in SW Iowa have been paying a premium if farmers would deliver contracted corn now instead of the original contract date later in the year.  I just do not see the demand destruction being played up by those "who know jack!"

 

I mean . . . when some simple minded, non market oriented rural backwater inbred such as myself who "does not know jack" about markets can point to inconsistant statements, by just observing what is going on in my neighborhood there must be something wrong.   I see almost nothing supporting recent "fears" being raised by those who "know jack"!  

 

Where is the demand destruction?  Where is the surplus grain USDA says we have?  Where are we being priced out of the market?  By whom?  I mean the REAL is strengthening, thedollar is weakening, kinda looks to me like the stars are almost in lined up to make us the most reliable supplier of grain and meat products in the world . . . but for one thing . . . drouth!

 

Look at demand, forget about Brazil (it will not be able to even export what it is harvesting right now or fill the orders on their books . . . they are not a reliable supplier . . . The United States is!  We have the infra structure they do not.  I really enjoy how the speculators and traders churn the markets when a load of beans are cancelled by the Chinese because the are "out of the market" or exercised a unilateral option of breaching grain contracts.   

 

Everyone is wringing their hands about he Mississippi being a dry river bed and is going to limit exports.  That is crap!  Most of the grain from the Midwest will either move by train South to Baton Rouge or soon West to  the Columbia River Terminal for export to the Far East.  Our trains can move all our grain.  In addition, if push comes to shove, the St. Lawrence seaway is still open and operating.

 

Demand is growing, we have been told that we have to raise X number of bushels to meet demand, well the only place where those bushels are being met are in fraudulent adjustments to grain inventories at USDA by Larry, Moe, and Curley.  Farmers whine, and those who farm the farmers always warn of the danger of not doing what they suggest, i.e. sell off the combine, do not store grain it is better to sell it at these prices because we are headed lower.  

 

Well . . . they do not pay the taxes do they?  They have no skin in the game other than their commissions do they?  They do not have the grain in storage to take advantage of better prices or sometimes lower prices.   In short these people are FOS!

 

Right now . . . we are headed into our second year of maybe a five year dry period according to the Oracle at Ames, if that is true, you will see better prices . . . that is . . . if you retained possession of your grain . . . and not crawfished out and contracted it with the elevator.  If we get 25 inches of rain between now and planting time . . . then we may all get educated.  But . . . since when is $6 corn, $13 beans, and $7 wheat not a Good Price?  

 

i mean . . . I spent most of my life raising $2 corn and $5 beans.  You can never get the best prices if you do not have possession of your grain, probably if you have already contracted your crop for 2013, you are not going to receive the best price if you could have held off. 

 

I mean . . . crops do not grow without water.  More important there is no slacking off  on demand, we can sell everything we can produce, and the dollar is below 80 this morning.  Welcome to the Golden Age of Farming, few ever see it in their life time.  Adios Amigos.   John

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 432
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
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Re: I Wonder

Well said Faust. There is alot of commercial buyers out there that like to scare you out of your grain. I had a few neighbors that sold before the report cause a local elevator buyer said these are going to be the highs for the year. Now after the report corn is up 25 and the basis narrowed another 5 at that elevator. I am still thinking nine dollar corn by spring.
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Red Steele
Posts: 4,791
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: I Wonder

[ Edited ]

Faust, you should go on one of those morning ag shows as a counterpoint to one of the usual talking heads. Great post!

 

When you talk about "knowing Jack" ,  you remind me of Lloyd Bentson in that vice presidential debate with Mr. Dan Quayle, when Lloyd educated young Dan about who knew Jack and who didn't.

"Peace on earth would mean the end of civilization as we know it" Joseph Heller
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Faust100F
Posts: 831
Registered: ‎11-09-2010

Re: I Wonder

Red and FarmerJoe - thanks for the response.  I also have a number of farmer friends who have yet to sell one bushel of grain, they were also scared at the comic book coming out last Friday, today beans are up over 40 cents and over $14, corn is up, wheat is up.  

 

I mean . . . they could have been stampeeded into dumping before the report also with all the crap these talking heads were doing.  I just do not know what we would do without Misinforma, and Bottom third, or the great predictions of Unprofessional Farmer, what a joke.   Like I said, I think farmers are getting sick and tired of the crap, they see the same movie one Friday every month. Have a great day boys.    John

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: I Wonder

Great stuff guys!........joking here b/c it is obvious, but i wonder whose REALLY filled w/ fear NOW and starting to panic.............................initials EU come to mind.