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08-10-2017 01:20 AM
Just not a good week here.....sure, it cool out, but maybe .10 to .15 of rain.........not what the nws forecast was which was quite a bit
more than what we got. Fearing that the rivers would rise and we would run out of supplies, we went to a bigger town today, it was
on a medical issue, but it appears that the Dr. broke our appointment, and nobody thought of telling us !
we did see some good crops, corn didnt look too whippy, but the beans were so nice, big and green, and milo the same heading out........
but we get a few miles from home, things get smaller, and weaker looking.........we are in an area that has recieved half, if that much
of the normal precip. our crops look horrible.....one neighbor planted some millet for cattle feed on june 1....and it still hasn't come up.
im tired of the lie's.......yes, i am. I am fast approching the thought that the commodity markets are frankly a joke.....it has nothing
in common with a true market. Im told by market people, on tv, radio, internet, this and that and the other.......but if you stop, and look
at things and start to think........things just don't add up.
The market i understand the best is wheat......i am just baffled by the market. I'm told there are huge supplies of HRW wheat.
I disagree. They say there is a huge carry over from last year. I disagree. We had several bunkers at area coops, they
are now gone......and most were a mess. The bottom was sour, and that stink goes thru the whole pile......now you are not
going to put that kind of stuff in a terminal elevator. The piles we had here went to a feeding operation. There were no piles
this year....and i was told by the elevator managers that the elevators were empty...
This year's crop was not the best, low protein, and issues with freeze and others. The number of harvested acres are really down
(but this is never reported)...in part due to poor conditions before the blizzard......crop conditions were bad in tx and ok and plans were
to graze out. Then the cold weather....in this area there were fields that got dinged pretty good.
Did you notice, there wasnt all the talk this year about the crop in tx, okla durning the harvest.....it seemed like it didn't even happen due
to lack of news stories, that was an issue of several coffee stop meetings.
The dakotas do rain a fair amount of wheat........so does montana.......would you care to look at the usda drought monitor map.......
as of August 5........most of montana is in the red, and along with the dakota's........this is the extreme drought...........
Please don't even go there if you are going to say plenty of wheat in the world......the question is, where and what condition ?
I remeber a few years ago, the big story was france....how much wheat it had........................ but due to weather conditions, a large
bulk of it was feed quality.......
I ask you this........do you want me to import some wheat from some god unknown place, put it in a ships hold and have it
shipped here, in the belly of a ship...and be ground into flour, and that flour is used by sara lee to make bread and other baked
goods......you want your grand kids eating that ????
not to mention, how much would it cost to ship in.
you keep threating me, saying that we are not competative to world market prices, thusly lowering the price.
tell me, why don't you add the cost to ship wheat into the price we are paid ???? it is cheaper to use the wheat locally
more than shipping it in from god only knows where....shipping by semi is about $3.59 a loaded mile for a 800 bu trailer load.
you are really going to tell me that imported stuff is cheaper and better quality. ???
looking at where we are at, our basis is almost $1.00 a bu........i know they had some wheat that had protein premium,
that they did not pay for.....i took some to another place to test the protein, and it tested 12........the premium was
well over $1.00 .
the cost to have it hauled to kc is far below the $1.00+ they are quoting........first, rail is far cheaper, and in most instances
they can get a back hall that will cut the cost in half. And not to mention they are shipping some to a gluten plant
65 miles away.
i'm sure there are going to be at least one responce that will tell me it's my fault.....i didn't market it right, why dont i haul it
here or there, build bins, etc..........let me think about that....it is my fault for the low prices being paid ????
the problem is the cost of scale........there is a cost involved in building the bins, conditioning equipment, care to go price a
protein tester ? and how about that semi(s) you are talking about, purchase, then the tires, oil, diesel, repairs, tag, insurance
and the time to do the driving......and in some instances, the law....in our state, you can only haul so far with a "farm use"
i don't have access to all that, plus, i dont have access to rail and other such things........
when i took marketing classes.......the role of the market was to discover the value of a commodity........it was made up by quite a few
commericals.......end users........today, i invite you to look up, to see who is the biggest group in the markets.......
look how many times over the actual bushels are traded.........at least 10 times.
we no longer have a value........the market makers have no interest in the product, the cost of the product, they just
want it to move.
does the investment crowd know the value of the product.......no
a large number of people tell me that business operates in the fashion that you take your cost to produce the product then add
on your profit and sell it for that..........all business schools teach that........but why are we not allowed to..........
why dont we make offers on the market.....
don't tell me i dont understand.......i understand very well.........this isn't my first rodeo........and i'm not some young college kid
wet behind, believing every word the professor utters is directly from god....i've been there, done that, i can read, research and
there is problem with our "market".......we dont have a true market......i dont know what we should call it...........
yet, such groups as FB and NFU do nothing about it.......they lament, what can be done, that's just the way it is.
listen, you can draw up models and using historical data to show how things have happened, and link it to certain
things that have happend........but they have their heads in the sand.......don't want to rock the boat......we have
nice jobs, don't want to push that.
the data is there, someone must put it in a form to prove the thought.
but today.......nobody give a dam......just looking out for their own $%#, i just worry about myself, too bad for you......and that attitude
is what is tearing us apart.......reminds me of the saying, united we stand, devided we fall.......that is why we are falling, nobody cares,
they are told nobody can do anything......that's not true.....the FB or NFU could file breifs and file suites to bring things to light, but
they will not.
i guess just what has to happen for commodities go up...........when the computer program (or when a select group ) decides its
time to go up ???
you know, the one things about computers, they leave a trail.......so why are we not monitoring all of this ???
i'm just sick of it any more.....those thinking it is a market or business, is just fooling themselves.....and it's all supply and demand......
that's no longer true, with the advant of just in time delivery.
08-10-2017 07:29 AM
Well, it`s like a auction, if the supply is known (or reasonably claimed to be known), the bidders are gonna bid what they`re gonna bid. Now, you can "no sale" it and haul it to the next consignment sale down the road hoping to get more next week. But bidders want to buy it cheap as they can, just like us, if a pickup is $1,000 cheaper at a dealer in the next town, that is where we`ll buy our pickup.
Thing with farming is though is there are still too many of us that there isn`t a monopoly as in other industries. A million of us idiots still busting our butts raising corn, well half of us have a stack of bills and have to sell in the fall, others of us can hold out until spring and still some of us are still holding 2014 corn that at some point we could`ve sold for $5.
Like if there was a 75% chance corn would be $6 in the spring, still many of us are too hardup that we couldn`t take the risk and would have to sell 3 months from now, regardless what the market is offering in the future. So endusers got that flow of supply, when us hardup clowns sell and that supply is exhausted, they may or may not have to pay up to get the spring supply shook loose, depending on how ornery they are feeling, they may drop the price to fear shake it loose.
The income tax phobes that are still holding the 2014 crop, if it gets down to them, they`ll have to bid up, but many of them $10 could be offered and they`d pass it up and it`d get loaded out at their estate sale one day.
Everyone we buy from is a quasi-monopoly, we are about the only producer sector that is so divided that we spend most of our time below the cost of production. But the US has a cheap food policy and that has worked well for the consumer. I don`t know how a "lawsuit" by the Farm Bureau would change any of it.
08-10-2017 09:39 AM
If the data from trades, market actions, and flash
Orders, along with other things that can be done
Electronically, that colors the market and is positive
For positions in place.
I'm hearing more and more about this from some
Brokers......the key is to make things look
One way, they know the computer programs read the
Data, and given when things fall into their program
This is a form of market tampering....and frankly
Cftc should have done something long ago.
It is buried by being electronic and the volumes.
08-10-2017 11:52 AM
Will the expenses ever decrease corn acres ?
Will the drought in north take corn acres down?
Does a good bureaucracy out produce good equipment and manure ?
Enquiring minds want to know.
The only questions worth thinking about are the ones each producer can do something about.
And what data is important.
Like what is Kansas land worth without wheat?
What do I do when land is devalued 50%?
We pick and choose what we want to believe..
We think land values are up as the media reports. But we don't believe market news. We believe those who say what we want to hear. But if the doc says what we don't want to hear we find another one at the health food store.
In many ways this "computer" market is much more transparent than the open outcry pits were.
Place your sell order for HRW at $6.50 for 2018 July futures. Now you can. The good old boys would have pitched it in the trash as unrealistic.
We are the serfs raising the crop. It is what it has always been. And we don't have a green river ordinance against technology scammers.
08-10-2017 12:08 PM
SW & Elcheapo --- excell thoughts trying to navigate the info tsunami - maybe goes way back to ''silence is deafening '' ? Hang in there M A G A is just around the next bend OR 2 ---
08-10-2017 02:58 PM
But MAGA can not happen with the bias media and scared & dependent populace. Then you add gutless Republicans in congress....believe me if there's any brains in the country its in the Republican party. If some of them turned wimpy, fugetabutit.
08-10-2017 05:59 PM
BA - your photo """"""" PRICE LESS ''''''''''' - like OLe'e said I'm buying hay at $40 & sell'n at $40 - just need a biggggger trailer ---
Have Nordic heritage - no pun intended - @disclaimer