07-15-2014 05:46 PM
This is not a real brave call but at some point the absurdity ends. It is possible prices could fall a bit more and bounce around but I think the damage has been done. Farmers up against it in Ukraine may have to sell. Indian farmers will sell because their price is protected at a very high level and they're insulated from the market. So are their reserves. And there mau be new farmers or those unprotected and at risk due to circumstances individual to them.
I don't have to sell though I didn't sell all of my held wheat on the recent rise. And I didn't forward contract all I might have. First, I have the insurance coverage. And I have very cheap commodity loans available. I'll wait the rest out. Buyers better buy because I don't think everyone will be in the mood to sell at this time. We're having a shorter crop here and I don't think anyone in the PNW (including Montana) that will try and rush the 'sell' door.
This situation also sets the basis for the next crop cycle. If a Ukrainain or Canadian farmer can't make money growing wheat then why not canola or corn? Or something else? Timothy hay for export is becoming a big business here (I'm harvesting my first test field this year - and we can grow good wheat). It's now going to get bigger. I believe there is more flexibility in cropping in my area than has ever existed. It's true of other places also.
07-15-2014 06:36 PM
Boy, that's got to tell you something when hay is a big seller.
And, as to prices, hold out. The USDA is sugar coating the state of the global ag picture. Farmers are being hammered in too may places this year, worse than last. And, Russian wildfire are back - remember that year? This is a trend that will only intensify as global warming accellerates. That is beyond any doubt. And, even if things are fine now in a region, the likelyhood of things going south in the future increases. Risk is not priced well right now.
Lastly, don't forget we are a debtor nation now, and therefore pressure will be brought to bare on us to keep prices low. This is most easily done by controlling the market message.
07-15-2014 07:02 PM
...... how close would I be to actually buying into the game and placing an order for paper contracts and 'betting on the come' ??? Based on my history ..... probably not very close ....... and yet ..... hmmmm.
07-15-2014 11:35 PM
07-16-2014 11:51 AM
07-16-2014 12:11 PM
I think the buyers recognize this may be a short lived price deal. Algeria just bought 800,000 tns of probably French wheat at @ $7.22 bu delivered across the Mediteranean.
I think I'm going to regret not buying paper for once on my prediction of a price rise.
07-16-2014 05:18 PM
Australia is a mere drop in the wheat ocean but we do export alot.
A very very large crop POTENTIAL in most of crop growing regions here.
Harvest starts in mid to late october and end in late jan depending on what region.
Frost is a ever present risk but moisture wise we are all above average year to date.
Basis is very strong 70 cents over chicago this will erode once harvest starts
07-16-2014 06:01 PM
Hw thanks for chipping in.
What types of wheat are most prevalent? Soft red, hard red, white, etc.
07-16-2014 09:00 PM
would say i think "white"
possibly similar to some of palousers wheats? but im guessing
Most of my wheat grown depending on protien is for flour
I still lurk here everyday and just observe might chip in a bit more thanks for encouragement