Agriculture News, Markets, Weather, Ag Talk, Farm Machinery | Agriculture.com
Reply
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,402
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

This is not a real brave call but at some point the absurdity ends. It is possible prices could fall a bit more and bounce around but I think the damage has been done. Farmers up against it in Ukraine may have to sell. Indian farmers will sell because their price is protected at a very high level and they're insulated from the market. So are their reserves. And there mau be new farmers or those unprotected and at risk due to circumstances individual to them.

 

I don't have to sell though I didn't sell all of my held wheat on the recent rise. And I didn't forward contract all I might have.  First, I have the insurance coverage. And I have very cheap commodity loans available. I'll wait the rest out. Buyers better buy because I don't think everyone will be in the mood to sell at this time. We're having a shorter crop here and I don't think anyone in the PNW (including Montana) that will try and rush the 'sell' door.

 

This situation also sets the basis for the next crop cycle. If a Ukrainain or Canadian farmer can't make money growing wheat then why not canola or corn? Or something else? Timothy hay for export is becoming a big business here (I'm harvesting my first test field this year - and we can grow good wheat). It's now going to get bigger. I believe there is more flexibility in cropping in my area than has ever existed. It's true of other places also.

 

 

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,402
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

The first sin is/will be increasing basis. We're now Portland +1.54 to Chicago. Guessing similar numbers will appear at NOLA.

Contributor
JackWolf1
Posts: 14
Registered: ‎02-18-2014
0

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

Boy, that's got to tell you something when hay is a big seller.

 

And, as to prices, hold out.  The USDA is sugar coating the state of the global ag picture.  Farmers are being hammered in too may places this year, worse than last.  And, Russian wildfire are back - remember that year?  This is a trend that will only intensify as global warming accellerates.  That is beyond any doubt.  And, even if things are fine now in a region, the likelyhood of things going south in the future increases.  Risk is not priced well right now.

 

Lastly, don't forget we are a debtor nation now, and therefore pressure will be brought to bare on us to keep prices low.  This is most easily done by controlling the market message. 

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,402
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Well, .....

...... how close would I be to actually buying into the game and placing an order for paper contracts and 'betting on the come' ??? Based on my history ..... probably not very close ....... and yet ..... hmmmm.

Advisor
elcheapo
Posts: 719
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

Today's local bids

Hrw wheat. 6.17

New crop corn 3.44

New crop beans. 10.70


Yes kids, I can't understand it. Wheat is
Lower than insurance guarantee....
The crop is a disaster, my agent told
me not to expect a check for a while due
to the number of claims. There is a shortage of seed since not much raised. Two seed
Houses have told me they are sold out
Now. Prices are $20 bag plus.

Yes there is a shortage of hrw wheat, I'm told
Plenty around.....where?

Are we going to import. ?

Corn price....that is tough to make money
On dryland corn at that price...with the
High input costs.

Beans.....seed almost $60/bag.
And 30 bu dryland beans don't happen
very often.

Ok increase usage...how. cattle number
Static due to smaller herd.
pigs, numbers down due to virus/disease

Options?

More eoth from corn
More biodiesel

Both would help price.....provide more American jobs, less depending on middle
East.

Anyone have a problem with that?
Veteran Contributor
M-Farmer2287
Posts: 100
Registered: ‎04-05-2014
0

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

First the positives. The month of June was the first month of the U.S. crop year, with hard red spring sales in the U.S. reaching a volume which was reported to be 62% above the pace of last year's volume as well as 62% higher than the five-year average pace. The 2.78 million metric tonnes sold as of June 29 was reported to be the highest volume sold as of this date in the past 10 years. Just some more demand destruction with over priced grain???🙈🙉🙊
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,402
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

I think the buyers recognize this may be a short lived price deal. Algeria just bought 800,000 tns of probably French wheat at @ $7.22 bu delivered across the Mediteranean.

 

I think I'm going to regret not buying paper for once on my prediction of a price rise.

Frequent Contributor
hardwheat
Posts: 70
Registered: ‎09-29-2013
0

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

Australia is a mere drop in the wheat ocean but we do export alot.

A very very large crop POTENTIAL in most of crop growing regions  here.

Harvest starts in mid to late october and end in late jan depending on what region.

Frost is a ever present risk but moisture wise we are all above average year to date.

Basis is very strong 70 cents over chicago this will erode once harvest starts

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,211
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

Hw thanks for chipping in.

 

What types of wheat are most prevalent? Soft red, hard red, white, etc.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Frequent Contributor
hardwheat
Posts: 70
Registered: ‎09-29-2013
0

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

would say i think "white"

possibly similar to some of palousers wheats? but im guessing

Most of my wheat grown depending on protien is for flour

I still lurk here everyday and just observe might chip in a bit more thanks for encouragement