10-07-2012 12:39 PM
I have a friend whose brother farms 5000 ac near Elkhart, between Springfield and Lincoln, IL
hIs average over last few years is 200 corn, 70 beans. this year he got 130 corn, 40 beans even with the hurricane "saving" rains in August. He confirmed rains were too late for new blooms - just helped w/ pod fill
Do the MATH. So he only got 65% avg corn, 57% avg beans
I agree with MT - report should be quite supportive.
10-07-2012 01:47 PM - edited 10-07-2012 09:13 PM
you sound like the Led Zepplin song from 2, "What is and what should never be" HA! "what's to be they say will be."
Is not the concensus that USDA will FINALLY cut harvested ac this time?????????????????....and won't this alone be a bit of a shocker b/c they have hardly cut any before?
10-07-2012 02:26 PM
The song is apropriate.
If they would, yes. Will they ------- my bet is no. Usda is not the political shill the labor dept. is, but the boss is still an appointee.
No negative economic news for at least another 3 and a half weeks. ---------
Better bet----------------acres stay up, yield creeps up just enough and an announcement soon that 2 million crp acres will be released for 2013 only corn planting on the stipulation that they return to crp in 2014 if not needed to fight the drought.
Believe me we are believing goofier propaganda than that from Washington. Hope & Change????
10-07-2012 02:42 PM
Also it is possible the Fed will announce the printing of 2 billion bushels worth of emergency PIC certificates to relieve the drought stress of low production, and fulfill the needs of end users.
There are several potential possibilities that are more probable than accurate harvest production data.
10-07-2012 04:45 PM
Do you honestly believe that taking 2 million established CRP acres and putting them into corn production for 1 year will even yield enough yield to cover expenses? If that ground is that productive, it should never have been accepted to the CRP program to begin with.
10-07-2012 05:48 PM
No No no. It is total sarcasm from me. It is a rediculous statement. It is not practicle.
one point is we are down to the desperate last few weeks of an election. It would not suprise me to hear a promise like this (and as rediculous as this) made if there is political advantage, knowing in 90 days they can run a six months environmental impact study on the idea and let it die.
Mainly I was reacting to the idea that the usda numbers in October could be expected to suprise. If there are suprises they will not be suprises that panic the market. Not right before the election.
And it might have been the Led Zepplin reference-----
10-07-2012 06:06 PM - edited 10-07-2012 09:10 PM
we can probably all agree this report wont have much of a suprise. historically/even more so this year b/c of advanced harvest - this report will mark the end of alot of the guesssing/mystery harvest nearing 70-80%. NOW, mkt will start worrying about S.A. and focus/do again what IT NEEDS TO DO!! I do think, if anything though, there's more risk to the upside now - agreeing w/ MT on his post.
if we're still thinking music, lets think Ted Nugent, "stranglehold" "you can tell it's me coming by the clammer now baby....if your house gets in my way baby, you know i'll burn it down" Last part sounds like some of the S. Amer farmers!
10-07-2012 07:13 PM - edited 10-07-2012 07:51 PM
Thank you Cx1,
You were stressing my memory and its fuzzy that far back.
I think the market is going to continue to deal with the very poor harvest in all grains.
acres are overstated----its obvious to me, anyway. Usda is still applying normal adjustments to the worst drought on record for US producers. We have been feeding wheat since June, not because it is cheaper, it has not been cheaper all summer, we have no choice . The difference between planted acres and harvested acres could be at least 10% off. Abandoned acres are not totally filed into the insurance claims at this point.
And I think that data you get in the harvest reports Mike is collecting at the top of the Marketing sheet are based on more "real" data than usda cares to gather, or should I say, can afford to gather.
USDA Reports, like my foolish announcements ideas above, will be believed for a while. Then the market will move on.
Making a rediculous pronouncement will work in politics because after a month no one cares. But in the grain market, someone is going to need some all winter.------