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Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,468
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: IL looks rough.

Jim, Jim, Jim,   If.....and I say a big if we get 90 millions acres planted.   Even you should know that we don't harvest all those acres for grain.   The percentage is usually around 92% of the planted acreage harvested for grain.   That would leave about 83 million acres harvested.  with 170 and 155, the total bushels would be around 14.2 and 12.9 billion bushels.   Usage is somewhere around 14 billion........ Suddenly the supposed carryover of 2 billion shrinks in a hurry at the 155 yield..... You'd better buy a lot next week.  Smiley Wink

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,642
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: IL looks rough.

RT gets it.

Do we go sub 13. Too early to tell. But it's as much or more possible now than trend.

155 isn't an easy task.
Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,642
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: IL looks rough.

Use 90 but dial the harvested back to 91%.

That's 82ish. Could be 12.7B. Bye bye carryout in one year

Complacency is deafening.
Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,468
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: IL looks rough.

Of course usage will be cut back by all of that $5 plus corn.........Can't wait for ethanol to get the blame again for higher food prices.  Smiley Mad

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,642
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: IL looks rough.

More reason to go to E30
Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,904
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: IL looks rough.

Even the grizzly bears have to admit if nat yield goes below 160, there`ll be fireworks.   I say, give em all the rope they want and later when they wake up in their shorts, it`ll be the mother of all rallies...but don`t jerk the hook out of their mouth   Smiley Happy

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,494
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: IL looks rough.

lets bo back to the basic math 

 

Early projections were 90,000,000 acres @ 170.7 bu/acre equals 15,363,000,000 bushels.  A national average of 155 bpa would yield 13,950,000,000 bushels.  A difference of 141,300,000 bushels.

 

Woooooooo.... reconsider     how about a difference of     1,413,000,000 bushels    

 

Then reconsider the actual harvested acres  at around 83-85 million acres

 

And don't leave out the southern corn which is greatly reduced in arkansas and texas....

 

And the already progressing drought in the dakota's

 

Then factor in that every remaining acre except in the nw and california is planted 5-6 weeks late......

 

Now we still haven't factored in any summer problems or fertilizer loss or an additional week or two to replant delays.

 

Or acres transfered to beans.

 

Those are the things we don't have to speculate on maybe happening....

----------------------------------------

 

I could see 2 billion off the potential already...

 

 

Advisor
Posts: 290
Registered: ‎01-16-2013
0

*****

I know few people might have noticed, but in China, they are reporting that the collateral for the Bankster Commodity Loans is MISSING!   Yes...all of that Copper, Steel, and SOYBEANS, that were pledged as collateral for bank loans doesn't exist.   In some cases, 10-12 different parties pledged the same collateral for loans....and when the banks went out to check....it was GONE!  LMAO.  so...JUST HOW REAL IS China's grain reserves.  hmmm...makes you wonder.....all of that surplus grain is actually.....thin air.

 

I went off rotation this year and went to 80% soybeans and 20% corn and still have 100% of 2016 OC Corn in the bin.   Consolidated told me that there isn't a snowballs' chance in hell for prices to go up given the huge carryover......yet they're texting me with FREE DP offers everyday.   Whatever I do, usually do the opposite......but looking at our situation, and those within 200 miles of me, I'm thinking this thing is about to get really interesting.     Since 95% of the corn crop is in 3 leaf or just emerging state here.....there won't be any early pipeline refills.....and beans here are just emerging.   Most were replanted, like the corn, and last week thousands of acres of no-till were destroyed by slug infestations.   Are you kidding me?  It did happen.  One friend of mine is replanting most all of his 1K acres of early beans that managed to get up out of the ***** pounding 19" of rain in April and May.  

 

I'm sure Iowa will pull us all into the 170+ National Average. and I'll look like a fool.    

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,779
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: IL looks rough.

SW....the problem is they are using NEW MATH in the windy city and Disneyland east.

 

BF....interesting story.....first, I thought the grain reserves in china was government owned reserves.  Second, what is this going

to do to the financial/credit market.....if the assets are gone, will these groups be in the markets, to help them hum along (read

effect on demand).

 

Then the question is, where did the beans go ???  (bigger demand than we had thought ?) or did they exist in the first place ?

 

BF consider this......perhaps maybe consider doing something to put a base under that stuff in the grainery.  I'll agree, I think

the market outlook for corn is bullish....but the "market" and "those that matter", think otherwise....and that bunch ususally

wins.  figure out some cheap way......just in case.......

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,494
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: IL looks rough.

I've never said it that well.
But the problem with the new world market and the just in time crops has been just that from the start ----we are dependent on China's reserve.