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06-02-2017 09:58 PM
Jim, Jim, Jim, If.....and I say a big if we get 90 millions acres planted. Even you should know that we don't harvest all those acres for grain. The percentage is usually around 92% of the planted acreage harvested for grain. That would leave about 83 million acres harvested. with 170 and 155, the total bushels would be around 14.2 and 12.9 billion bushels. Usage is somewhere around 14 billion........ Suddenly the supposed carryover of 2 billion shrinks in a hurry at the 155 yield..... You'd better buy a lot next week.
06-02-2017 10:43 PM
Even the grizzly bears have to admit if nat yield goes below 160, there`ll be fireworks. I say, give em all the rope they want and later when they wake up in their shorts, it`ll be the mother of all rallies...but don`t jerk the hook out of their mouth
06-03-2017 01:12 PM
lets bo back to the basic math
Early projections were 90,000,000 acres @ 170.7 bu/acre equals 15,363,000,000 bushels. A national average of 155 bpa would yield 13,950,000,000 bushels. A difference of 141,300,000 bushels.
Woooooooo.... reconsider how about a difference of 1,413,000,000 bushels
Then reconsider the actual harvested acres at around 83-85 million acres
And don't leave out the southern corn which is greatly reduced in arkansas and texas....
And the already progressing drought in the dakota's
Then factor in that every remaining acre except in the nw and california is planted 5-6 weeks late......
Now we still haven't factored in any summer problems or fertilizer loss or an additional week or two to replant delays.
Or acres transfered to beans.
Those are the things we don't have to speculate on maybe happening....
I could see 2 billion off the potential already...
06-04-2017 11:59 AM
I know few people might have noticed, but in China, they are reporting that the collateral for the Bankster Commodity Loans is MISSING! Yes...all of that Copper, Steel, and SOYBEANS, that were pledged as collateral for bank loans doesn't exist. In some cases, 10-12 different parties pledged the same collateral for loans....and when the banks went out to check....it was GONE! LMAO. so...JUST HOW REAL IS China's grain reserves. hmmm...makes you wonder.....all of that surplus grain is actually.....thin air.
I went off rotation this year and went to 80% soybeans and 20% corn and still have 100% of 2016 OC Corn in the bin. Consolidated told me that there isn't a snowballs' chance in hell for prices to go up given the huge carryover......yet they're texting me with FREE DP offers everyday. Whatever I do, usually do the opposite......but looking at our situation, and those within 200 miles of me, I'm thinking this thing is about to get really interesting. Since 95% of the corn crop is in 3 leaf or just emerging state here.....there won't be any early pipeline refills.....and beans here are just emerging. Most were replanted, like the corn, and last week thousands of acres of no-till were destroyed by slug infestations. Are you kidding me? It did happen. One friend of mine is replanting most all of his 1K acres of early beans that managed to get up out of the ***** pounding 19" of rain in April and May.
I'm sure Iowa will pull us all into the 170+ National Average. and I'll look like a fool.
06-04-2017 01:27 PM
SW....the problem is they are using NEW MATH in the windy city and Disneyland east.
BF....interesting story.....first, I thought the grain reserves in china was government owned reserves. Second, what is this going
to do to the financial/credit market.....if the assets are gone, will these groups be in the markets, to help them hum along (read
effect on demand).
Then the question is, where did the beans go ??? (bigger demand than we had thought ?) or did they exist in the first place ?
BF consider this......perhaps maybe consider doing something to put a base under that stuff in the grainery. I'll agree, I think
the market outlook for corn is bullish....but the "market" and "those that matter", think otherwise....and that bunch ususally
wins. figure out some cheap way......just in case.......