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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,055
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Impact of a Mexican trade war on agriculture

here is data from usda....at least i hope the page is still there...seems that things are starting to have a habit of

disappearing.

 

www.fas.usda.gov/regions/mexico

 

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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 147
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
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Re: Impact of a Mexican trade war on agriculture

ive been trying to find out exactly why most of my friends on FB are so against the TPP. Nobody really knows why but it seemed like the thing to doat the time. its a herd mentality kinda like lemmings jumping off a cliff.

 From the info ive gathered AG is a loser as far as corn,beans,wheat and a whole bunch of commodities goes. im not really sure who the winners are with getting rid of TPP but someone must be?!

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,047
Registered: ‎06-30-2010

Re: Impact of a Mexican trade war on agriculture

[ Edited ]

Looking at total trade info from 2015, it looks like about a 5% across-the-board tariff on imports from Mexico would pay for the wall in 1 year, so a substantially less-offensive 1% tariff would likely be adequate over several years, and could be eliminated at any time.  Still, that assumes "across-the-board", no other changes, no retaliation.  Singling out agricultural trade would somewhat suck.

 

Then, there's also $320 million in foreign aid going from US to Mexico, plus who knows how much money flowing to Mexico from immigrants supporting families or paying debts "back home".

 

All of this is pre-mature (until something is put in writing), part of the problem is that the initial warning shots and posturing are all being publicized, mostly because of the campaign comments -- then the media latch onto it as though that's the punishment, or the deal, and that's final.  I'm truly believing that our leadship, and Mexico's leadership, are more mature than that, though some demonstration of maturity would be preferable, from the media also.  These kinds of deals would ordinarily be carried out behind the scenes and the public would know quite little of them until some kind of draft was circulated.  All we have right now is talk, conjecture, emotions.

 

Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail, tariffs conflict with free-trade principles and increase prices, and even with a wall to better control/monitor human ebbs and flows, Mexico is still our American neighbor.

 

  

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico

 

U.S. goods and services trade with Mexico totaled an estimated $583.6 billion in 2015. Exports were $267.2 billion; imports were $316.4 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with Mexico was -$49.2 billion in 2015.

 

  • The top export categories (2-digit HS) in 2015 were: machinery ($42 billion), electrical machinery ($41 billion), vehicles ($22 billion), mineral fuels ($19 billion), and plastics ($17 billion).
     
  • U.S. exports of agricultural products to Mexico totaled $18 billion in 2015, our 3th largest agricultural export market. Leading categories include: corn ($2.3 billion), soybeans ($1.4 billion), dairy products ($1.3 billion), pork & pork products ($1.3 billion), and beef & beef products ($1.1 billion).
  • The top import categories (2-digit HS) in 2015 were: vehicles ($74 billion), electrical machinery ($63 billion), machinery ($49 billion), mineral fuels ($14 billion), and optical and medical instruments ($12 billion).
     
  • U.S. imports of agricultural products from Mexico totaled $21 billion in 2015, our 2nd largest supplier of agricultural imports. Leading categories include: fresh vegetables ($4.8 billion), other fresh fruit ($4.3 billion), wine and beer ($2.7 billion), snack foods ($1.7 billion), and processed fruit & vegetables ($1.4 billion).

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/26/us-aid-320-million-mexico-wall-trump-speciali...

 

The United States directs an average of $320 million worth of aid a year to Mexico for various programs

 

The largest chunk of U.S. aid goes toward law enforcement

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,047
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: Impact of a Mexican trade war on agriculture

[ Edited ]

Here's a couple of opinion sources on why TPP not good for US --

 

http://rooseveltinstitute.org/why-tpp-bad-deal-america-and-american-workers/

 

http://inthesetimes.com/article/18695/TPP_Free-Trade_Globalization_Obama

 

Just pointing to a couple sources of info, not saying am in agreement with all of it.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 109
Registered: ‎05-15-2010

Re: Impact of a Mexican trade war on agriculture

elcheapo

 

try an alternative news source

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R33RWGoKVTY

Honored Advisor
Posts: 13,546
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Impact of a Mexican trade war on agriculture

 

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) ensnared Mexican and American workers in a race to the bottom. And the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free trade deal among 12 countries instead of just three, would place American and Mexican workers in an even worse competition. They’d vie for jobs with forced and child labor in places like Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam. 

Under NAFTA, cheap American grain shipped to Mexico without tariffs destroyed peasant farming. And that prompted migration north. Meanwhile, American factories saw desperate Mexicans willing to work for a pittance, a government unwilling to pass or enforce environmental laws, and because of NAFTA, no tariffs when the goods were shipped back to the United States. That propelled factory migration south.

Before NAFTA, the United States had a small trade surplus with Mexico. That disappeared within a year, and now the annual trade deficit is  approximately $50 billion.

Though it has been 22 years since NAFTA took effect, a report issued last week by the AFL-CIO says, “Labor abuses in many cases are worse now than before NAFTA. . . In short, NAFTA has contributed to labor abuses, not improvements.”

The report says the Mexican government fails to enforce labor laws and refuses to ensure that workers can form independent labor unions to try to protect their own rights. In fact, the report says, “The human and labor rights situation in Mexico is rapidly deteriorating.” 

As a result, workers are powerless and completely at the mercy of corporations. So corporations like United Technologies can pay them $3 an hour and get away with it. This is not good for Mexican workers. And it’s not good for American workers.

The AFL-CIO report makes it clear that the TPP would worsen the situation because it would give corporations like United Technologies the option of moving to places like Vietnam where they could pay trafficked workers and child laborers $1 an hour. Or less.

Just like with NAFTA, there’s nothing enforceable in the TPP that would stop the labor abuses. It would facilitate corporations forcing workers from Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Monterrey, Mexico, into competition with 14-year-olds laboring 60-hour-weeks for $1-an-hour in Malaysia 

 

http://m.industryweek.com/who-is-killing-manufacturing

Advisor
Posts: 7,353
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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Re: Impact of a Mexican trade war on agriculture

Quite seriously, this is what I would do once I've fulfilled the appearance of trying to talk (with people you can't talk to).

 

1) I'd place a 50% tariff on HFCS- not like there's not an immediate domestic substitute.

 

2) I'd invite representatives from ARG and BRA to discuss an agricultural trade agreement

 

3) I'd open discussion with China who would be glad, as always, to do a barter deal for the infrastucture projects that would be required.

Advisor
Posts: 7,353
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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Re: Impact of a Mexican trade war on agriculture

The feedmills, a lot of the megqfarms etc. are owned by US corporations anyway so not Mexico's problem if they dry up and blow away.

 

The CEO of Cargill mightnot be happy, though.

Advisor
Posts: 7,353
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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Deadbeat Don

Does have broad experience in not paying people- lenders, investors, contractors, workers.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 13,546
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Deadbeat Don

A mechanic's lien is a security interest in the title to property for the benefit of those who have supplied labor or materials that improve the property. The lien exists for both real property and personal property