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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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In Fargo

[ Edited ]
I am in Fargo, North Dakota tonight. I just finished having a long conversation with a well known farmer and longtime seed dealer up here. He says the corn is not going to be too bad. But, the beans are really getting hurt. He hasn't mowed his yard in three weeks. He just mows the weeds down, he says.

Also, he expressed how the corn acres are really increasing around here.

I thn went into the bathroom. And a guy, in this same group of farmer/seed dealers, says that because corn is more profitable than the traditional local crops, a lot more corn is going to be raised next year. He says that even into Canada, more corn is being planted.

If you didn't know, the "Big Iron" show is going on this week in West Fargo. I am actually up here to interview some ag economists. And tomorrow, I will be speaking to a NDSU Marketing class.

But, I thought I would pass along the anecdotal evidence of an ok corn crop and bigger acreage in the Dakotas.

Mike
Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,128
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: In Fargo

What's your opinion of the crops you saw along your drive?

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: In Fargo

I was seeing the crops from 40,000 feet. In general, things got greener the further north the plane went. I haven't stepped a foot into a bean or corn field.
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: In Fargo

[ Edited ]
No correlation to corn and crude, this year. Just thought I would throw that in. I know it is random.
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c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: In Fargo

[ Edited ]

Mike,

could you see any crop circles or possible patterns/codes from 40,000 ft - telling us anything?:smileyvery-happy:

 

you know how i track the precip maps and w/ out posting the map - some rough estimating---last 30 days about 120,000 square miles or roughly 40% of main belt - less than 1/2 inch of rain......of that, about 50,000 square mi = less than 0.10 in!.........a WOW factor for me...........the troops on the ground say AHPS over-estimates, on top of that. oops, almost forgot -- and the heat on top of that.....geez, a lot of piling on.

 

--give 'em a good lecturing to:smileymad::smileyvery-happy:.

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Palouser
Posts: 2,224
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: In Fargo

If beans are below 40 bu an acre national then the price is going up as we would be short beans.

 

I can guarantee that the economics will push growers to beans next year if corn is down and we're importing beans.

 

Every year is a new year for any crop that needs more stocks.

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: In Fargo

it is not going to print on Thurs........ i'm already seeing below 35 by final.  FWIW.

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Canuck5
Posts: 106
Registered: ‎04-23-2013
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Re: In Fargo

c-x-1     Not trying to disrespect your views at all.  In fact I agree with you from looking at weather maps.  But if you are seeing this, and it is so obvious, why isn't everyone?  The same data is there and available for free to anyone who looks for it.  That is what is perplexing to me.  

 

Is it just a case of "None so blind as those who refuse to see?"

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,224
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: In Fargo

[ Edited ]

All I know is my experience as a farmer. If beans are short then next year that would be the possible opportunity. At it's most basic it would be contracting to deliver beans next year after the true numbers come in and the futures market adjusts. Again, it's a matter of patience now but as the fall and winter progress then will come the opportunities. There are various ways to skin a cat but demand is demand. Producers will have decisions to make.

 

Everything I've read til now is that beans much below 40 is below pipeline needs. If that low of production becomes a matter of record then the 'futures' will eventually react. 'Eventually' being the operative term. We could start importing beans. In any case it will be noted. Farmers will be paying attention.

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c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: In Fargo

[ Edited ]

Hope Palouser will chime in, as well....It took a while for concept to sink in here...he got me started thinking w/ futures being a laggart -- and my dissert yest re: futures are ACTUALLY the NOW.......around 40-41 is what can reasonably be quantified now. the masses don't research the data and/or assimilate it to much extent..........human nature is too reactionary.....OOHH, but whats the news of today going to do today...........fear, my friend, rules the roost.

 

what do you forsee with the SAME data?.........the expert advisories don't tell u all they know........keep you in the now so you need them for guidance on a more daily/wkly basis......we live in a disabling world, it hasn't yet evolved to an enabling one:smileysad: