03-12-2013 05:21 PM
Just across the newswire here a few minutes ago: Informa's CEO said today that 99-million-acre corn figure they threw out earlier this winter may be a little high.
So, are you surprised? He blames potential soybean profitability. Does that sound right? The story also quotes their CEO as saying the corn price range could swing from $4 to $10 depending on the weather. How about that?
03-12-2013 05:46 PM
$4 to $10 sounds to me like an average of $7. Not a bad place to start new crop sales once it gets there.
03-12-2013 06:02 PM
Continued drought just may buy more bean acres. High cost corn production and soybeans may be a little more forgiving under those circumstances. How often have those august rains bailed the soybean farmers out?
03-12-2013 06:27 PM
i keep seeing that magic # 10. i ask any grain economist, chart tech, or anyone else in the Corn business chain to explain their thoughts regarding 10 bucks? Informa, USDA, Larry, Gulke.
anyone have thoughts about this?
03-12-2013 07:58 PM
ok, you had several posts on the matter...USDA and what good would come of it. I remember more now.
I certainly wasn't meaning to bug you with it...
every time the topic comes up, i ask and have not got much of a rational anwser.
so you and many others don't want to see much higher prices in old crop.
all i can do is ask the farmers what they can do to profit/protect/do whatever it is you have to do to @ least not be hurt by much higher prices IF THIS IS WHAT MKT HAS TO DO.......heck i don't know what it'll do when it re-visits in the vicinity of last summers highs, but i have have different plans ready.
03-12-2013 08:18 PM
sorry, i was searching, typing while you answered
i don't mean to be redundant either, but we are all trying to be rational business-men...so i'll ask again for objectivity's sake (trying to take all emotion out of equation)
What or how has the govt disallowed (aside from a 1 day report rxn) markets in the past from doing what they have to do?
look, i know it's not commonplace for some YAHOO trader/chartist/who knows what. .....to want to help a farmer (what are his credentials, experience, track record, net worth, etc)...but i really do.
the fundamental economics are always expressed in markets whether anyone wants them to or not...especially mkts in an EXTREME economic alignment..........then specs take advantage of this.
i definitely don't have a clue about all that goes into farming. i'm learning some insight thanks to you guys, and hope to one day gain some EXPERIENCIAL KNOWLEDGE, as well....when they let me out of my bubble
did my corn chart with comm net pos overlay make any sense?
03-12-2013 10:03 PM
Jeff, as we all know, everything would have to be just right weather wise for 99 million acres of corn to be planted. Their has been a few good opportunities to price new crop beans compared to corn, and the eastern cornbelt is starting to get a little wet. I hear we may get another winter storm next week. Another foot of snow on already saturated soil could eat away at more corn acres than a good soybean price.