01-12-2014 10:22 AM
With the possibility that we have put in at least a temporary low on corn what does that do to input prices? Many have been expecting cheaper inputs coming into spring. If market stabilizes or starts to move higher what is your game plan for inputs?
Not sure how much potential for softening there was anyway with so much NP+K being bought last fall even if it didn't get applied. Guys paid for it to minimize income tax. Suppliers are also probably somewhat covered with anticipated needs at current prices. The only guys that might have had a chance at some real deals come spring are those who can buy direct and take delivery right of the barge.
Seed is what it is. There is much talk about guys holding out until the last minute to get some panic deals from seed companies left holding the bag on record seed production with the possibility of significantly less acres being planted in 2014. That all sounds good but I think it is mostly wishful thinking. I sure there will be some deals here and there but by and large I don't think you are going to see a fire sale on seed. Don't forget seed companies have had a few good years and will probably stay the course on price and burn a little equity to get through this year. Kind of like cash rents.
Speaking of cash rents, it will be interesting to see how that plays out. I think guys are willing to burn some equity for at least one year before turning loose of those $300 to $500 cash rents. Good thing too because I'm afraid most land owners are planning on making producers bleed for a year or two before even considering a renegotiation on rents.
Chemicals may be the one area where there is some penny pinching done. With producers able to shop via the internet for deals on chemicals there might be some pretty good prices come spring. The one area where guys will shoot themselves in the foot is by not using insecticide where needed and skipping fungicide applications. This could seem like a real good place to save a lot of money but in the end could end up costing people dearly. For those who are fortunate enough to live in an area where you have no rootworm pressure and you see zero response to fungicides it is a no brainer. Of course if you live in one of those areas you probably haven't been using those things anyway! In my area we have done a ton of trials and fungicide is a consistent money maker even with $4 corn. Same for insecticide. Rootworm pressures are strong enough that we are seeing 16 bpa response on VT3 and 10 bpa on Smartstax. We did some untraited corn with full rate of insecticide and it was about 10 bushel behind the VT3 but rootworm pressure was off chart. That area was full beetles this fall.
Good luck to all.
01-12-2014 10:40 AM
" We did some untraited corn with full rate of insecticide and it was about 10 bushel behind the VT3 but rootworm pressure was off chart. That area was full beetles this fall. "
You knew this and you did not spend the $12 to treat
01-12-2014 10:41 AM
Unfortunately if that area was full of adult beetles last fall, the VT3 or smartstax is showing signs of resistance. The dose in the roots is not as lethal as the bt corn for corn borers. IF people don't change, they will become resistant just as some weeds have to roundup. Continous corn , many have used the same traits have speed up the process. Just remember, God created these insects, we won't be able to wipe them off the face of the planet. But we can manage them.
01-12-2014 01:04 PM
01-12-2014 03:47 PM
01-12-2014 05:33 PM
That is absolutely what is going on. Resistance to both the VT3 and Smartstax events. My point was that even with the resistance, VT3 and Smartstax with insecticide are stil making more money than untraited corn with insecticide. This is in large part due to the jerks who ignored the refuge requirements the last several years and planted all traits with no refuge. Up until a couple of years ago our refuge corn with insecticide was holding its own or even outyielding the traits. Not anymore. We are getting much better suppression with traits and making more money with the traits.