06-18-2013 10:37 AM
Whole countys in many states with problems from lingering drought.Then an whole bunch of late winter frost,several times.(wheat.) Several countys in several states with excessive rainfall,ponding,prevent plant,and late (corn.) There is significant reason to beleive global problems exist also.UK,Aus.China.Now we have the gmo event,USDA says,one state,one farm,one field.I smell a RAT!
06-18-2013 03:31 PM - edited 06-18-2013 03:32 PM
The market is where it should be on average over time. If your market is built on new demand then higher prices are the rule till demand is reduced or supplied. But this market is built on both new usage and production problems. Production shortage does not necessarily raise price IMO. It forces earlier sales many times to meet expense demands ------ so as Palouser says the market lags as supply continues and the carry over is the impact point. going into the next year.
Scott and the more conservative leaning of us complain about the fed action, and it is a form of passing the buck or living on a credit card. But Producers who have fallen into the drastic production problems have had a gift given to us by the fed with a never ending supply of cheap money to help us finance the cost of poor crops and long term marketing plans. 12% interest would have made the weather problems definitely harder to bear-------- along with making all that new hardware we been buying harder to do.(refering here to the wind turbines, ethanol plants, livestock building, and grain storage that is so prominant across the country.
06-18-2013 03:43 PM - edited 06-18-2013 03:44 PM
One of our local buyers dropped a couple of cents off of basis today after the close, (Had put on a nickel Fri) Said the reason is the market is getting supplied with Minnesota corn...they are finally selling it up there and loading out trains.
Sounds like a win win to me They will not do that next year.
They added 10 cents to the bean bid.
Quite an interesting game of poker ...
06-18-2013 07:57 PM
Wells Fargo called me today and practically begged me to borrow some money. I told her but I don't need any and she said well thats the best time to borrow some. Had me scatching my head for a bit.
06-18-2013 08:21 PM
I should have , I mean they were talking up to $100,000 non -secured if approved. Who does that?? How much of this stuff is on the books plus all the student loans and credit cards. This ain't gonna end well
06-18-2013 08:43 PM
Those Wells Fargo gals are always right --------------- take the money, it's worth twice as much now as it will be in two years. Build something that will make you money in the future. Then a few years down the road borrow twice as much and pay off the Wells Fargo note. Keep the other half --------------- eventually the government will pay you to keep worthless dollars in circulation. Congratulations you are an investment banker. The fed will keep you prosperous.