07-02-2012 09:03 AM
Back last spring, there were predictions of lots of corn and low prices and I knew my bins would not hold all my new corn plantings. So, over the spring, I sold some Oct and Dec corn in the high 5s and even some beans in the high 13's. Felt pretty good about it all spring and by May was feeling right smug.
Pride comething before a fall. All those prices now look cheap, plus one wonders just how much grain one will raise?
It's easy to say no more sales, but the peak will be in some day and we'll probably miss it, too.
Let me say that when we have a bumpter crop, the crop is good all over. But when we have a problem crop, the crop is different all over. In some places, yields will be very good. In others, awful. The problem for many of us will be that we will judge everyone by what we see out our back window. As a result, some of use will refuse to sell at good money because our corn doesn't look like it will yield, when the corn in the next county may produce well and hold prices down.
I predict (pretty easy prediction) that we will have some weeping and gnashing of teeth later this year on prices as some of us let good money go by when the trade figures out what we have when the combines roll.
Well, I'm not giving advice because mine hasn't been too good so far, but what I am saying is this kind of year can be pretty hard to market into in my opinion.
I think corn is improving in the last couple of weeks as roots are getting into good subsoil moisture. I konw that's not what USDA says and not what many of you say. And, I'm only looking out my back window.
07-02-2012 01:46 PM
Jim, what have you received for rain in the last month? As you said, the back window has a big effect.
Out my back window in SESD, I'm seeing a crop with great potential heading for a cliff without any rain in sight and 95-98 degree temps. Its going to get ugly here soon based upon the forecasts and the deterioration I am seeing in the fields with each passing day.
I absolutely agree with you on the difficulty of marketing this crop for the exact reasons you gave and with the kicker that we may not have the bushels here.