08-12-2013 12:05 PM
I 've got several comments to make. Let's get started.
We got a fairly bullish report at this point. I need to look at the weather yet, I do that i just a bit. I'm waiting for my pain meds to kick in so I can repack my leg.
Notice the ND BPA - 116. That's pretty indicative of what I saw going through ND this spring with their real late planting. And that figure is still in jeopardy.
89 Mil Acres. We still need to subtract the PP acres that are still not accounted for on this report. That drops out another, oh, I'm going with 1.5 Mil Acres, which drops another 1/4 billion bushels off the tally. Notice that this is now a matter of subtraction, not addition. That will drop us to 13.5 bbl, with a lot of weather yet to happen. I'm sticking with my 12.5bbl. I think when all the talling is done, it will be fairly close to the final.
I'm still seeing lots of beans not canopied. And probably won't anymore. On the way to the Docs I took a different way do to road construction. Several fields that were going to be soybeans after peas are unplanted. They were the smart ones. The ones that are trying to coax a second bean crop - well, good luck. A lot of those beans are ankle high, maybe a bit more. I really don't think they have a prayer, but are probably in the final total.
At what was my farm, things still suck. We got a half an inch this past week, with nothing in the forecast again for the next 10 days. I'd say its over for that area, but in reality, it was over before anything got planted, like I said before. Those that had insurance didn't plant. Those that didn't or needed feed have planted, and that corn is approaching hip high. More in a bit...
08-12-2013 12:28 PM
Looking at the vegatative health maps, this year vs last year now. When you consider that the NW 1/2 of IA, most of the MN corn production area, the ND production area and a portion of the WI production area is showing much less green than last year at this time, that's saying something. Looking at that production area and comparing it to the entire US corn production area, I come up with around 1/2 of our major production area producing less than last year. I do not believe, I have never believed, that IL and IN are going to make up for that loss of area. It's a matter of total area, good vs bad, and can the good make up for what could be really, really bad in a frost event. And other than ND, my figures do not take into account a large area frost.
08-12-2013 12:48 PM
Now let's look at the weather. No frost in the forecast for the next ten days. Cooler temps around the great lakes for a few days coming up, but then a return to more ormal temps for a bit.
The jet stream has retreated to a almost direct west - east flow on either side of the Canadian boundary. This is going to keep our temps normal, as the bulk of our air mass is coming from straight west of the midwest, not from Canada. (A note for Dairyfarm man though - the midwest and Alaska both show abpove normal temps in the 6 - 10 and the extended 8 - 14 day forecasts. They are not an inversion of each other.)
The bigger issue is precip once again. Or lack thereof. Next drink is 7 days away, I think the maps are painting more than what I think will happen with that event, but it's still a bit early to draw up something solid. Those that got some rain over the last week as our jet stream was transistioning, good for you. For the rest, with the addition of some warmer temps I suspect that we will begin to see more beans aborting pods.
The area of High pressure that has been dominating the upper level Gulf Coast area is back in place, and should prevent any hurricanes from entering the midwest in the near term.
There was a large area of cold air that was pooling in Northern Canada, but that looks like it got modified when the jet stream changed and warmed a bit, so nothing to exciting there.
That's it. Hopefully we can keep today's momentum going for a bit. Soybeans are still the sleeper in my mind. Maybe if can can gore enough of those bears we can inspire a bit of a rally.