08-01-2012 09:08 AM
The final word (full story) from the MDA EarthSat Weather crop tour we covered last week is something we all know: "The U.S. corn crop is in very bad shape due to extreme heat and drought." The average corn yield estimate from 49 stops between Columbus, Ohio and Omaha, Nebraska was 133 bu/ac.
MDA currently pegs the national yield estimate for corn at 125.6 bu/ac.
"I think the yields we found on the tour represent a maximum yield potential, especially in Iowa, where the crop was younger and additional kernel abortion is likely to occur," Tapley told Agriculture.com. "The heat and dryness will also lead to low test weights again this year, further reducing yields."
Any thouughts on the 125 number, and the chance for things to continue going south?
08-01-2012 09:20 AM - last edited on 08-01-2012 01:41 PM by John_Walter
Yield doesn't tell us anything unless they tell us how many acres will be harvested. Yield is meaningless. How many bushels will be harvested is the key. You can have a 200 bushel yield but only 50 million acres harvested and get the same amount of corn from a 100 bushel yield on 100 million acres. As I have said earlier and elsewhere, this year's corn production will be bigger than 10 billion bushels.
08-01-2012 09:23 AM
Dryland corn here, is rapidly going from a yield potential of maybe 50-60 BPA on the bottom ground, to basically zero if it doesn't rain soon. The rain overnight, missed us, we can play connect the dots in the spots in the dust.
Soybeans were hanging on pretty good until late last week, when another 5 days in a row of 100 degrees plus, is causing blossom/pod abortions. Again, every day more of hot and dry, will drop yields.
Even in irrigated ground, many days of 100 plus degrees has harmed pollenation of corn, and moisture stressed it, even under irrigation. I don't think anyone, can keep up irrigating, when there is little to no subsoil moisture reserves, and the weather has crop water use as high as .44" per day in corn (that's over an inch and three quarters of water needed every 4 days, to keep up). The thinner soils under irrigation are depleted of moisture, the corn turns pale a couple days before the water comes around again. We need rain, cooler daytime highs, rain, more humidity, rain, less wind, rain, and cooler nights (which we have finally been starting to get), and did I mention rain?
Seriously, though, I have furrow irrigated corn, that basically went 'on hold' until I could get it ridged, and watered. Those drier spots are almost two weeks behind the main part of the field, but still have potential if weather breaks. It is funny, having corn in roasting ear stage, and corn where the tassels are still dropping pollen, onto ears where the silks are just turning red, in the same row, within 100 feet of each other. I have never seen anything like it, but with the last couple nights being cooler, and the next few days under 100 degrees, the corn that is behind, seems to be doing OK pollenation wise. Only time will tell if it runs out of gas before the ears are made because of the early stress, or not.
08-01-2012 09:33 AM
Just the other day I posted 125+ but after this no rain thing for another few days and talking to people from the eastern corn belt and other smaller tours like the one that was just done around Decatur, Ill where the best ave they got was about 125 ave for some of the best the US has to offer the more marginal ground is going to detract from that. I saw a news thing on TV 8 in DM on the 10 O'clock news done from a nice looking field in the Ames, Ia area and the representative ears in the news story showed problems out there. The one person quoted on here with a 117 yield ave guess may be the most right yet.
Yesterday evening the field rep for my seed co stopped by for a few soybean plants to take to ISU to have a plant pathologist look at. He had the back seat of his PU full of bags of beans, most all with very few pods. All from the SW corner of Iowa, Mine were on of the very few samples with bloomed out blooms and what I as a simple farmer would call the smallest beginnings of pods he had. . Lots of these bean acres are going to disappoint as the beans are in survival mode and getting no help from mother nature. another week and yields will be nowhere close to trend or early estimites either.
08-01-2012 09:39 AM
vandenplas : ALL yields at this time are based on the planted acres number. Later on the actual yields etc will be figured on harvested acres. Now we are still in total planted as that is/was the way ALL the rest of the #'s were arrived at.
08-01-2012 10:00 AM
Does nass report abandoned acres on Aug 10 report? Seems to me w/ the early start this yr, that some of the harvested will begin to come down on this first quanitative report: especially in a year like this.
08-01-2012 10:25 AM - edited 08-01-2012 10:26 AM
My last state by state 2012 Corn review shows a harvested level of 87.2% of the 96.4 planted or 84.075 million acres and a national average yield of 117.7 for a 2012 crop of 9.895 billion bushel based on the crop conditions as of 7-30-2012.
This is 3.075 billion bushel below the July 11th USDA figure and will cause some major long-term demand issues if it is accurate.
The lower harvested acres % of 87.2% is higher than in 1988 which showed 86% even though we have a greater amount 37% now vs. 27% in 1988 of the crop rated in P to VP condition.
If I knew for sure, I would not be working for a living.
08-01-2012 10:31 AM
125 would not surprise me and I believe the number will be lower if we don't get rain. I assume the 125 number assumes rasonable growing conditions from here on out and that is not in the forecast.