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08-22-2013 01:42 PM
At this point in time, please share your best guess for final USDA C and S yields, 2013 crop year.
Me first: corn 156.8, beans 44.2 , derived forom my belief that ECB super crop is being underestimated. MN IA problems acknowledged.
Not to forget- TRENDLINE isn't perfect conditions, it is average.
Please enjoy pritch even if you disagree, good debate is healthy. Pritch as a negative bias, acknowledged. It results from starting in the business in 1979, . A few bull yrs, 80, 83, 88 ?? but down 'til 2000 generally. The carry in that time and recent is HUGE. Futures longs in contangoed markets pay and pay. A pro spec in backwardated wheat periods, can earn earn, carry, offsetting some of the risk of being short.
INDEXing ? bring excess length to ag futures, that IS not BULLISH, EXCEPT IN THE SHORT TERM, for it is it is clearly economically bearish , ARTIFICIALLY HIGH PRICES incite and invite greater production, which though it took 2 yrs is upon us.
08-22-2013 02:37 PM
Big crops means deflation, everyone makes money but the farmer. The carry means you sell today but he stores it and has it sold into a future date maybe 6months into the future on the board. Therefore he can make more money than the farmer. The problem with his going back to the glory days of the 80's is two big buyers, China and ethanol. They have more money than Pritch. They seem to know where Pritch will buy and then just take it all and leave our favorite poster high and dry bawling. What are our yields, not enough for Pritch and China.
08-22-2013 03:55 PM - edited 08-22-2013 03:59 PM
C - 135-140 - Prod < 12 B
B - 37-39 - Prod < 3 B
However, no peep of this till Dec or Final unless widespread freeze in Sep.
08-22-2013 04:11 PM
157 corn and 40 beans. Corn crop is still above 13 billion in my opinion. Beans I really don't know. A lot of beans in the cornbelt got a big drink today but a lot of them didn't either. Our beans have been struggling. Pod counts are low and new blooms have aborted due to dry weather. The 2" to 3" rains we got today will put some new pods on and fill what we have but I am still pretty skeptical of potential for good bean yields. Corn on the other hand..........
08-22-2013 05:46 PM - edited 08-22-2013 09:06 PM
harvest ---- 140 bpa corn on 82 m acres harvested = 11.48 B corn
37 bpa soybeans on 74 m acres harvested = 2.73 B soybeans
But that was not the question------ the question was--------- share your best guess for final USDA C and S yields, 2013 crop year.
USDA------ 154 bpa corn on 90 m acres harvested = 13.86 B corn
44 bpa soybeans on 77.8 m acres harvested = 3.42 B soybeans
The "PEA" this year is hidden under the acres cup.
Dec corn cbot on November 20th or some day around there ------------- 5.40
Jan beans on similar date----------------------------------------------
If it rains and is a cool fall, harvest will be very slow and drawn out based on planting date with either poor quality or high moisture.
If harvest is fast enough to help the end users it will mean a lot of heat and lower yields.
Pick your poison ------------------ I think that will bouy prices either way.
But the campaign to convince us we have a surplus again has lots of supporters and like budget debates in congress, the supporters are being paid well for their support-------- cheaper grain guaranteed
But the best part for producers again this year is 12.675 billion bushELS OF CORN is needed this year------- a conservative guess made by our favorite source for entertainment(only)-----usda. Even after a few months at $7+ weeeee need 92% of that rosey yield usda is projecting. And Southern corn is being barged up river to ethanol and other uses------- That's 2013 bushels and acres being shoved back into the 2012 budget demand --------- the pot simmers.