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Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,566
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Lanworth up to 14 B+ corn

And 158.5 national yield.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 4,340
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Lanworth up to 14 B+ corn

Well between them and the USDFA I think I know where all the old Soviet Union Ag people went.

 

Must be kind of like that old saying

 

"build it, they will come" ? 

 

The new version goes something like ...

 

" Print it, it will appear."

 

I'm not sure the truth will ever be admitted to anymore.

 

Too many people, too many generations removed from farming being in charge of pure speculation.

 

 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 1,315
Registered: ‎01-30-2011
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Re: Lanworth up to 14 B+ corn

c'mon hobby........experts are ALWAYS right Smiley Wink

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,402
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Lanworth up to 14 B+ corn

Isn't that timing phenomenal. The first up day, and here we come with another 14bbl report. All the pop can cobs are going to bushel up with no rain in the forecast - or is this another one of those predictions made a month ago with the "if we have the right weather" clarifier, and pulled out now to once again kick the can down the road.

Jen
Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,566
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Lanworth up to 14 B+ corn

Lanworth is certainly the outlier in terms of being a company that uses satellite telemetry almost exclusively to come up with thier estimates. I believe they were one who led other companies in predicting a smaller crop of corn sooner than most other analytical estimates last year - if I remember correctly.

 

I suppose the question really is, if the vegetation indexes are correct for their estimate, then what about possible frosts, continued dryness, etc?  They obviously can't make a determiniation on that directly at this time.

 

My point is that their estimate may be right on at this point. Doesn't guarantee anything. And for that matter neither does any other perspective at this time.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 216
Registered: ‎01-08-2013
0

Re: Lanworth up to 14 B+ corn

There was a saying in the 1920's that "Rain Follows the Plow". The Dust Bowl of the 1930's that followed proved that saying to be wishful thinking. Sometimes it takes a while for the truth to come out.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,402
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Re: Lanworth up to 14 B+ corn

Predicting yield by satellite imagery has been hit and miss at best. It's been a long time since we had this wet of a spring, and my guess is their estimate is substantially off because of the cooler than normal weather across the corn belt. Personally, I still believe Elwynn Taylor's estimate for now. Last I believe was 152, but that will probably be coming down due to lack of rain. Again with the 14bbl - whatever....

Jen
Advisor
Posts: 650
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: Lanworth up to 14 B+ corn

[ Edited ]

Cool, damp weather past several days have greened things up in this neck of the woods.  Still, rainfall around this area was generally less than 0.5" (total for last several days), most crops planted late, etc.  Vegetation index based estimates could be misleading since late crops, shallow root systems, beans short, and grass areas greened up (which doesn't mean anything for c/b yields) -- from a satellite, things might look pretty good right now.

 

How many PP corn acres are included in USDA corn acres?

 

How many corn acres got planted or replanted after June 1?

 

How many soybean acres got planted or replanted after June 15?

 

How's the weather for August?

 

When's the first frost?

 

Plus, back in January (1-18-2013) I printed out a graph of trend yields just for general interest and future reference, from Joel Karlin -- he came up with estimated corn trend yields of 143 (based on 10-yr), 157 (based on 20-yr), and 158 (based on 30-yr).

 

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/view/ag/printablePage.do?ID=BLOG_PRINTABLE_PAGE&bypassCach...

 

I'm thinking the top-end is off the corn crop before we got half the crop planted, so where does that put us now?

 

Plus, supplies still tight on old crop, and new crop won't be coming in early like 2012.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,566
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Lanworth up to 14 B+ corn

At this point all we are talking about is potential.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 147
Registered: ‎07-31-2013
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Re: Lanworth up to 14 B+ corn

I'm guessing 16 BBU and LDP's