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07-31-2013 11:19 AM
Well between them and the USDFA I think I know where all the old Soviet Union Ag people went.
Must be kind of like that old saying
"build it, they will come" ?
The new version goes something like ...
" Print it, it will appear."
I'm not sure the truth will ever be admitted to anymore.
Too many people, too many generations removed from farming being in charge of pure speculation.
07-31-2013 11:40 AM
07-31-2013 11:42 AM
Lanworth is certainly the outlier in terms of being a company that uses satellite telemetry almost exclusively to come up with thier estimates. I believe they were one who led other companies in predicting a smaller crop of corn sooner than most other analytical estimates last year - if I remember correctly.
I suppose the question really is, if the vegetation indexes are correct for their estimate, then what about possible frosts, continued dryness, etc? They obviously can't make a determiniation on that directly at this time.
My point is that their estimate may be right on at this point. Doesn't guarantee anything. And for that matter neither does any other perspective at this time.
07-31-2013 12:25 PM
There was a saying in the 1920's that "Rain Follows the Plow". The Dust Bowl of the 1930's that followed proved that saying to be wishful thinking. Sometimes it takes a while for the truth to come out.
07-31-2013 12:43 PM
07-31-2013 12:46 PM - edited 07-31-2013 01:19 PM
Cool, damp weather past several days have greened things up in this neck of the woods. Still, rainfall around this area was generally less than 0.5" (total for last several days), most crops planted late, etc. Vegetation index based estimates could be misleading since late crops, shallow root systems, beans short, and grass areas greened up (which doesn't mean anything for c/b yields) -- from a satellite, things might look pretty good right now.
How many PP corn acres are included in USDA corn acres?
How many corn acres got planted or replanted after June 1?
How many soybean acres got planted or replanted after June 15?
How's the weather for August?
When's the first frost?
Plus, back in January (1-18-2013) I printed out a graph of trend yields just for general interest and future reference, from Joel Karlin -- he came up with estimated corn trend yields of 143 (based on 10-yr), 157 (based on 20-yr), and 158 (based on 30-yr).
I'm thinking the top-end is off the corn crop before we got half the crop planted, so where does that put us now?
Plus, supplies still tight on old crop, and new crop won't be coming in early like 2012.