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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 100
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Low in

Agrimoney. com has a story from Bloombergs saying their intelligence cite the commodities have bottomed and now are in a bull market.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 100
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Low in

The problem,   I don't care how credible Bloombergs are I just don't believe them. This thing is just a horse of a different color.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,897
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Low in

When they say commodities, they could be meaning lumber, copper, gold and such.   It could mean grains and livestock are along for the ride?  I hope so.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 100
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Low in

The way I read it wheat, corn and beans in particular. Every news outlet in the country uses bloombers so why did they come out and make a statement like that. Raining hard now.

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,468
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Low in

I think that I've heard this before.

Advisor
Posts: 836
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Low in

We've all heard everything before.  The question is what do we act on.  One could infer that almost no one on this site has or will sell anything.

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,468
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Low in

[ Edited ]

I don't think there is a law that says I or anyone else has to tell you when we sell.      Smiley Wink

 

BTW, if you really want to know the answer to this,  there are always patterns concerning farmer selling.   These are well documented.    You know.......off the combine, before the end of the year........after the first of the year........John Deere payment time.........tax time..........rent due time.......last day of August.......and the big one lately, the day before a USDA report.     Smiley Mad

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,038
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: Low in

A lot of people have sold a ton of soybeans this past spring and summer already Jim, record farmer selling is how one merchadiser put it. Far fewer have sold corn, just makes sense. Selling calls on any 20 cent rally in corn is the start of good merchandising plan out of this mess of over production. 

 

Looking to 2018, there are lots of reasons to be a cautious seller. No subsoil moisture, very strong demand, less corn acres around the the world, wheat takes maybe 3 mil acres back which makes the supply tight for both corn/soy. Besides, we are just overdue for a bounce. Plus, from a money flow point of view, the ag commods are extremely cheap vs. paper. Money will flow back in most likely. If you diversify 4 Tril in fiat money, and only 5% goes into ag, that is the value of the entire US crop for all crops. :-)

 

There is huge carry, pretty obvious how a farmer should play it, capture it. Sell the carry, or calls on the carry month, after an 18 cent rally.